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Thursday, October 22

22nd Oct - ECB says "in December", risk-on

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Risks to German economy rise due to weaker China, VW: finance ministryReuters 

Don’t dismiss migration concerns if you care about open bordersOpen Europe
EU Is Getting Better at Doing Nothing on the Migrant Crisiseuinside

UK Macro Monitor: Growth likely slowed in Q3 but still at trendDanske Bank 

ECB preview: Expect promises to deliver in December – TF

Live Analysis – FT
Live Analysis – WSJ
Live Analysis – MarketWatch

Monetary policy decisions – ECB
Introductory Statement – ECB
Press Conference – ECB

Draghi increases bets for December action – Carsten Brzeski
Draghi Signals New Stimulus May Come This Year for Euro Area – BB
Euro Drops as Draghi Gives Investors the QE Hints They Wanted – BB
ECB signals December policy review, money-printing unchanged – Reuters
ECB to stay put, keep door open for more stimulus – Reuters

ECB prepares an easing package for December – Nordea
More ECB QE? Perhaps best when the Fed raises – Reuters
The City cheers Draghi, but his QE weapon lacks firepower – The Guardian
ECB: expect QE expansion in December, but no rate cut for now – Pictet
Goldman Expects "Plenty Of Downside" For EUR, Reiterates 0.95 Target – ZH

It’s Time to be Neutral or Short RiskGMT

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Down, Led by Health Care Again

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
ECB in Focus

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Stocks Quietly Rise in October, But Sit at a Crossroads

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
We look at to what extent further ECB easing is priced in to markets as well as scenarios *
Markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a 10bp deposit rate cut by year end * Meanwhile, a QE extension is more priced in than an increase in the pace of monthly purchases

Euro rates updateNordea

Lower yields and stable EUR/USD ahead of ECB * Draghi – dovish, but how dovish? * German yields reverse part of the jump from the day before * NOK hit again

Morning MarketsTF
With the Eurozone's economic recovery slipping from modest to near-imperceptible, the pressure is on the ECB to act. While today's meeting may not see the launch of new stimulus measures, investors will be looking for signs of what the centrasl bank's plans are for December when its next round of macro predictions are released.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Double-D as in Draghi`s Day

Daily ShotTF
GDP figures for China have been heavily discussed recently. Data by sector shows that slowdown is more severe in the so called old economy. In the meanwhile in Europe Mario Draghi should be glad as the largest focus for private credit investors is direct lending in Europe.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
BoE praises single market but warns of potential risks to financial stability from EU membership * New poll finds Corbyn could play pivotal role in EU referendum outcome *
EPP pledges “complete reform” of European Asylum System * European Commission publishes new proposals to strengthen Eurozone integration * New Spanish jobs data provides boost for government ahead of general election * Greek cabinet to discuss further measures needed to unlock bailout cash

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Futures Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD


FX UpdateTF
Euro traders are holding their breath as there is widespread consensus that today’s ECB statement will be heavy on the dovish rhetoric and light on actual policy action. So what is the surprise scenario that will take the euro in a new direction after months of indecision?

From the FloorTF
Markets keenly await news from the European Central Bank's governing council today, which is broadly expected to issue a dovish statement but refrain from any new concrete policy action.

Joulukuun koronnosto vaatii pohjustusta Fediltä * Portugali ampumassa itseään jalkaan * EKP:lta ei odotettavissa uusia toimia tänään * Valtionlainakorot painuivat eilen alaspäin

Eurooppa valvoo ja vatuloi – Verkkouutiset

Poliitikon tyly arvio Suomesta: ”Länsimaisen demokratian parodia – Moskovan varjo näkyvissä” SK
Georg C. Ehrnrooth lähetti vuonna 1980 amerikkalaisille muistion, jossa hän haukkui Kekkosen ja eduskunnan.

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