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Wednesday, October 28

28th Oct - Fed stands pat, but Dec odds increase

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Inaction and Euroscepticism Are Killing the European Project – euinside

6 takeaways on the EU single market plan – Politico

Editorial: Poland's Risky Choice – BB

Mark Carney's EU Speech in Five Charts – BB

EU struggles with migration edictsPolitico

Further SEK 65 billion bond purchases, keep repo at −0.35% - Riksbank
More QE From SwedenZH
Unchanged repo rate, 65 bn in QE, lower rate pathNordea

ECB Forum Conference proceedings – ECB
ECB’s Sintra Forum on “Inflation and Unemployment in Europe”voxeu
The monetary policy of the ECB (slides) – ECB
Coeure: Slower inflation rise could mean ECB deposit rate cut – ECB
Q&A on the ECB’s negative rates –decision to cut again should be FX-dependent – Pictet
Fiscal multipliers during consolidation: evidence from the EU – ECB
ECB’s ‘whole menu’ bereft of new dishes – Reuters
ECB Officials Haggle Over Fresh Stimulus in Draghi's Aftermath – BB

5 Things to Watch in the Third-Quarter U.S. GDP Report WSJ

FOMC October Statement – FED
Fed Statement Tracker – WSJ
Fed less worried about risks from China’s slowdown – WaPo
Redacted Version of the Statement – David Merkel
It’s what the Fed didn’t say that counts – Joshua Brown
Economists React: ‘December Is in Play’WSJ
Fed puts December rate hike firmly on the agenda – Reuters
Fed Considers December Rate Rise, Sees ‘Moderate’ Expansion – BB
Stocks Slide as Fed Signals December Rise Remains on the Table – WSJ
On hold now - December rate hike remains on the tableNordea

Max McKegg: Time for Bank of Japan to think outside the boxTF
New forecasts will be presented at BoJ meeting, including an inflation update expected to show CPI at minus 0.2%. Meanwhile the USDJPY exchange rate is close to a rock-bottom, 40-year low. So the Bank of Japan is left with few options, unless the central bank can think outside the box.

Stephen Pope: Japan the unfixable stays on slow growth modeTF
Is it really good enough to look to exogenous events to understand the Japanese problem? The crucial and fundamental problem is the the fact that Japan’s economy simply doesn’t grow much in the first place and doesn't know how to grow

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Ease Again, Led Down by IBM

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Fed Shadow Lurks Over Markets

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
What the Fed Meeting Means for Markets

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
We now expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by 10bp to -0.3%…while it should leave the door open for more * Swedish experience shows deeply negative rates can be effective * It would take a bigger than 10bp cut for the short end to rally further

Euro rates updateNordea

Fed on hold but December hike still on * Global rates under pressure on weaker data * Renewed fall in energy prices – risk to related currencies

Morning MarketsTF
Today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting will give investors a glimpse into US monetary policy as the Fed struggles to meet its normalisation goals.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Soft Inflation Data Fans Expectations RBA Rate Cut Next Week

Daily ShotTF
Troubles abound. Evidence that the US may be shifting into a lower gear is now mounting with consumer confidence, services sector activity and factor orders all missing estimates. In the Eurozone a tighter money supply has crimped corporate borrowing, UK GDP fell short of consensus projections and in China, industrial profits continue to slide. It's not pretty. corporate borrowing money supply

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
David Cameron to warn against ‘Norway-style’ future for Britain outside the EU * Timmermans: Britain’s desire not to be forced into ‘ever closer union’ is fair enough * Bundestag President threatens ‘No’ vote on EU-US trade deal if negotiations are not transparent * Merkel given ultimatum to change migration policies as her party slumps in polls * Mobile roaming charges to be scrapped from mid-2017 after final vote in European Parliament * Catalan separatist parties table motion marking the official start of independence process * EU to publish major review of VAT rules next year * European Commission unveils 2016 Work Programme and new strategy aimed at boosting single market * Juncker: European Commission could loosen fiscal rules to take refugee spending into account * Swedish Riksbank boosts QE as ECB prepares for further easing * New Portuguese government unveiled

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Single market day — Migration ultimatums — Talking to Turkey

Markets On Hold Awaiting The Fed's Non-Announcement As Central Banks Ramp Up Currency Wars


FX UpdateTF
The USD looks firm ahead of today's FOMC statement, with an odd lack of participation, however, in USDJPY. Elsewhere, very low Australia Q3 CPI data socked the Aussie for significant losses and sent AUDUSD into a tailspin through key support.

From the FloorTF
Markets are bracing for an announcement after the close in Europe from the US Federal Reserve, and any clear hawkishness or dovishness would be a big jolt to the world's nervous markets.

Katseet Fedissä * Venäjän keskuspankilla mietinnän paikka * Rakentamisen heikkous jarrutti Britannian BKT-kasvua * Ruotsin keskuspankki ilmoittaa tänään lisäelvytyksestä

Väyrysen uusi euroeroehdotus Roger Wessman