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Tuesday, October 20

20th Oct - ECB ahead, EU talk

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EU executive to float ideas on deeper euro zone integrationReuters
The European Commission will present ideas on Wednesday on how to help countries sharing the euro to integrate more effectively over the next two years, including the way they manage banks and budgets.

Results of the October 2015 euro area bank lending surveyECB

ECB Says Credit Standards Improve as QE Program Supports LendingBB

Lessons for Draghi From a Land of Sub-Zero Interest RatesBB
Denmark has had mostly negative interest rates since mid-2012. Main effects have been higher asset prices, not growth.

The ECB still has options to weigh on the currencyPictet

US: heading into a recession?Nordea
While we see the probability of a US recession as rather low, the odds of a December rate hike are believed to be close to 50-50.

Housing Permits To 7-Month Lows Despite Decade-High Homebuilder Sentiment – ZH
Housing Starts increased to 1.206 Million Annual Rate in September – Bill McBride
Demand for rental apartments boosts U.S. housing starts – Reuters
Housing Starts Rise as Construction Underpins U.S. Economy – BB

The Trading GameBB

Five economic chartsMacro Man

China’s Economy Is Slowing Hard, Just Not OfficiallyAlpha Now

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Hampered by Morgan Stanley’s Surprise

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Edge Lower; Oil Weighs

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
What to Expect from Tech Earnings

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

NAHB index surprises, equities up, oil down, still waiting for ECB * Riksbank inflation equation still impossible * Bond markets stymied waiting for ECB * USD stronger on China and NAHB, SEK weaker

Morning MarketsTF
Today the ECB publishes its lending survey. In the current climate, amid new worries about growth, it would be worrisome if the data does not show another round of easier lending standards.

Daily Shot – TF

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron: Those who want to leave EU will have to answer question of single market access *
The Daily Telegraph: Italy could support UK on safeguards for non-Eurozone countries * Bank of England to release report on UK’s EU membership this week * Former ECB President: FTT limited to eleven EU countries would penalise France * Law and Justice’s Szydło: Poland needs to be more assertive within the EU * Turkish PM: We will not serve as “concentration camp” for Syrian refugees * Farage criticises BBC for using ‘Europe’ as shorthand for the EU * Spanish newcomer centrist party gains six points in one month, new poll shows * Tax ruling on Starbucks and Fiat expected to set precedent on tax avoidance * German Interior Minister calls Pegida movement “hard right-wing extremists” * Greek government under pressure to enact reforms to unblock bailout cash * Ireland saw largest decline in wealth per person during the Eurozone crisis

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Canada’s shock Liberal win — Brexit bombshell from BoE

Futures Halt Three-Day Rally, Drop On Energy Weakness, IBM Earnings


FX UpdateTF
Canada’s Liberals swept to victory in Canada’s election and manage to form a majority government, weakening the loonie on policy uncertainty. Elsewhere, can ECB president Draghi clear the rather high bar for a dovish surprise on Thursday?

From the FloorTF
The Canadian dollar fell sharply in overnight trading after Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party swept to victory in an landslide that echoed his father Pierre's equally stunning electoral win almost half a century ago. While a Liberal victory had been expected, an outright majority was not, and markets are disturbed by what they fear will be a freewheeling, free-spending, tax-cutting spree by Canada's new prime minister.

Suomessa on synkistelty liian vähän * Käänsikö Katainen Suomen talouden taantumaan? * Fedin Dudley ja Yellen pitävät tänään puheet * Euroalueen reunamaiden korot jatkoivat laskuaan

Investointien vaimeudesta – raportti talousneuvostolle Suomen Pankki

Piristääkö deflaatio talouskasvua? Roger Wessman