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Monday, October 10

10th Oct - Hard Brexit, GBP flash crash

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IMF will stay out of Greek bailout, to take special status Reuters
"This way Lagarde can go to the board and say, hey, 'I'm not violating our rules' and Schaeuble, whose government is facing an election next fall, can say, 'see, I have the IMF on board'"

Merkel Europe and the 2017 electionsTF
Europe's largest economy Germany will hold elections in roughly a year but it is not clear whether chancellor Angela Merkel will run again. In this first of a two-parter we look at Merkel's position on the international stage before examining her domestic standing.

Eurogroup to greenlight €2.8bn Greek aid – MoscoviciFT
Theresa May's Reckless Gamble on a "Hard" Brexit – PIIE
Clive Crook: Ditch the 'Hard Brexit' Fallacy – View / BB
May must resist her party’s dangerous instincts – The Economist
“Brexit is Brexit”, even after a couple of beers – ABN AMRO
After May's Brexit pledge, Europeans close ranks – Reuters
Merkel’s Brexit warning – FT
May’s Brexit Tone Heard by Euro Finance Chiefs Bracing for Talks – BB

DBK’s Cryan Doesn’t Reach Accord With U.S., Bild Says – BB
DBK CEO fails to reach 'deal' with DOJ: Bild – ZH
DBK’s distress is symptomatic of a wider malaise – The Economist
Banks Are Unloved Everywhere, Not Just Europe – BB
ECB Allowed DBK To Cheat In Latest Stress Test, FT Reports – ZH
Deutsche Bank was given special treatment in EU stress tests – FT

US election monitorDanske Bank
Clinton regains a significant lead

Far from stepping back, top central banks are set to double down Reuters
A steady flow of research and a new tone in the debate among policymakers and advisers points in a different direction: rather than retreat, central banks are preparing for the day they may need to do more, even at the risk of antagonizing politicians who argue they already have too much power.

Risks Mount for World’s Biggest Wealth FundBB
Norway to withdraw $15 billion from sovereign wealth fund * Cash needed to help fill an 8 percent budget shortfall

The World Got Really Anxious About Globalization's FutureBB

Macro Monday: Waiting for the dust to settleTF
Given the high impact events of last week we need to wait for the dust to settle to determine if the markets are coming or going.

Bengt Holmström, Nobel Laureate Tyler Cowen

Matt Levine’s Money Stuff BB
FX Trades and Hypothetical Deals * Deutsche Bank * Banking salaries * Twitter * Insider trading * Trump and governance * Bond market liquidity

Draghi: ECB could hit inflation target by late 2018, early 2019 –
Germany's Schaeuble says too much talk on Deutsche Bank – Reuters
BOJ's Kuroda vows to cut rates, buy more assets to fight shocks – Reuters
IMF members to push spending, revive trade to boost growth – Reuters
Global Elites Step Up Defense of Openness as Populism Rises – BB
WEO: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies – IMF
WEO Data Forum Database – IMF
GFSR: Fostering Stability in a Low-Growth, Low-Rate Era – IMF
Fiscal Monitor: Debt - Use it Wisely – IMF
Fiscal Monitor Database – IMF

UBS: Why this is more than a flash crash in sterling
Breakevens and the Great British Peso – FT
A Look Inside The Crash: What Really Happened In Those 30 SecondsZH
Pound’s Dramatic Week Leaves Traders Skeptical of Quick Recovery – BB
Brutal Week Batters British Markets as Brexit Risks Crystallize – BB
El-Erian: Seven Things to Know About the Pound's Depreciation – BB
Sorry, but the FX market can simply be gappy too – FT
GBP, inflation and the BoE, choose your own adventure edition – FT
Pound Fails to Shake Off Wounded Image After Week of Flash Crash – BB
Liquidity Illusion Burns Traders Blindsided by Pound’s CrashBB

Afghanistan 15 years on: Obama’s sorriest legacyPolitico
Why America’s longest war will remain a muddle for the next president. If only Trump or Clinton were paying attention.

Liquid assets: how the business of bottled water went madThe Guardian
How did a substance that falls from the air, springs from the earth and comes out of your tap become a hyperactive multibillion-dollar business?

Why Bruce Springsteen’s depression revelation mattersQuartz
The Book of Bruce SpringsteenVanity Fair

Danske DailyDanske Bank

GBP flash crash shadowed NFP, CNY weaker, Clinton ahead as Peso strengthens * Norwegian and Danish inflation today * Bund yield at three week high * GBP in flash crash * CNY in 6 year low.

Morning MarketsTF
The second US presidential debate was a brawling affair as Donald Trump attempted to punch his way out of days of embarrassing headlines.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Firm, but Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso Respond Favorably to US Politics

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
An interesting 24 hours

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Stocks Levitate After Dramatic Debate; Yuan Tumbles To 6 Year Low; Bonds Closed For Columbus Day


FX UpdateTF
Friday’s indifferent US jobs report failed to spark strong directional interest in the greenback but sterling closed the week at very low levels and the negative spiral could be set to continue this week. Elsewhere USDJPY rally attempt needs to find support soon to maintain bullish interest.

From the Floor TF
Donald Trump really ought to be out of the ring now but in this most remarkable of campaigns there is still life in his campaign yet as a reversal in USDMXN points to the extraordinarily partisan nature of this campaign.

USA:n työllisyysluvut hienoinen pettymys markkinoille * Trumpin kannatus laskussa * USA:n tapahtumat pääroolissa tällä viikolla * Punta pysynyt heikkona viime viikon äkkipudotuksen jäljiltä

Alan Salehzadeh: Terroristit ja poliittisen islamin edustajat viihtyvät länsimaissaIL