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Thursday, October 6

6th Oct - Waiting for jobs-Friday

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The pension hole in European corporatesFT
Deficits for the more-than 100 companies that we have screened are up 16% since endFY2015…rise in cash contributions is likely to translate into cuts in dividend payments, which in turn could put pressure on share prices and affect market sentiment.

Sweden: Don’t trust today’s data - the housing market is slowingNordea

EU Readies Plan for Clearing Crisis, the New Too-Big-to-FailBB
Draft law on CCP recovery, resolution seen by Bloomberg News * EU Commission plans to make proposals by the end of the year

Stiglitz sees Italy, others leaving euro zone in coming yearsReuters

Merkel rallies industry against giving UK sweat Brexit deal The Local
Britain cannot be allowed access to the EU's single market without accepting free movement of people, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday, warning she would not allow a free-for-all.

Deputy governor: BoE was too pessimistic about Brexit vote The Guardian

Constancio Denies Report ECB "Near Taper Consensus"ZH

Berlin pursues discreet talks with U.S. officials on Deutsche Bank – Reuters
DBK dumped as German government denies talks with US DOJ – ZH
German CEOs Said To Offer "Single-Digit Billions" Capital To DBK – ZH

Preview of September Employment Report – Bill McBride
Goldman's September NFP Preview – Bill McBride
5 Things to Watch in the September Jobs Report – WSJ
Some Go Beyond the BLS for a Picture of the Jobs Market – WSJ

Global FX Strategy: Thinking of the TrumpeningNordea
The likelihood of a Trump presidency has plunged, now merely becoming a tail-risk for the market. In this edition of Global FX Strategy we, amongst other things, look at how a turn-around in the polls could impact upon the USD and upon some specific EM currencies. A Trumpian turn-around might still be possible.

Central Banks on QE Highway Worry About Running Out of Road
Sustainability key for central banks far from inflation goals * Quantitative-easing concerns include how to exit the programs

Ray Dalio speechLinkedin
Remarks at the Fed’s  40th annual central banking seminar

China letter 1: Will China face a financial crisis?Danske Bank

Today’s Markets in 54 ChartsWSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Super-strong US non-manufacturing ISM, today ECB minutes . Fed Vice Chair calls for reforms. Treasury yields retreating somewhat after recent surge.

Morning MarketsTF
GBPUSD is hovering above the 127.0 trapdoor Thursday morning after UK prime minister Theresa May took a political angle on monetary policy with quantitative easing one of those in the firing line.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
The Dollar is Firm in Quiet Market

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
A few fixed income thoughts

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
BoE deputy governor: We were too pessimistic about economic impact of Brexit vote * Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: ‘Hard Brexit‘ will be hard for the EU * New services sector data strongly suggests UK on course to avoid recession * Merkel warns of “extremely complicated situation” if EU fundamental freedoms are split * AfD drops in polls while CDU politician suggests forming a coalition * Orbán to push ahead with constitutional amendments banning refugee resettlement without parliamentary approval * Bratislava summit failed to deliver “sufficiently concrete” results says Juncker * New European border force enters servic

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
EU border guard — Portugal to run UN — Ducking Donald

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises


FX UpdateTF
After a head-spinning comeback in the ISM non-manufacturing survey in September a November Federal Reserve rate hike could even be in play if tomorrow’s US jobs data are sufficiently strong.

From the FloorTF
The Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting just ahead of the US presidential election. While this led many to rule out a policy move at this juncture a surprisingly good ISM non-manufacturing print for September has fuelled speculation that the November 1-2 meeting is "live".

EKP julkaisee tarkempia tietoja syyskuun kokouksestaan * USA:n palvelusektorin luottamusindeksi (ISM) oli erittäin vahva * Aamulla julkaistaan Saksan elokuun tehdastilaukset * Ranska huutokauppaa pitkiä velkakirjoja