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EUROPE
Deficits for the more-than 100 companies that we have screened are up 16%
since endFY2015…rise in cash contributions is likely to translate into cuts in
dividend payments, which in turn could put pressure on share prices and affect
market sentiment.
Draft law on CCP recovery, resolution seen by Bloomberg News * EU
Commission plans to make proposals by the end of the year
Britain cannot be allowed access to the EU's single market without
accepting free movement of people, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said
Thursday, warning she would not allow a free-for-all.
Constancio Denies Report
ECB "Near Taper Consensus" – ZH
BANKS
Berlin pursues discreet talks with U.S. officials on Deutsche Bank – Reuters
DBK dumped as German government denies talks with US DOJ – ZH
German CEOs Said To Offer "Single-Digit Billions" Capital To DBK
– ZH
UNITED STATES
JOBS REPORT PREVIEWS
Preview of September Employment Report – Bill
McBride
Goldman's September NFP Preview – Bill
McBride
5 Things to Watch in the September Jobs Report – WSJ
Some Go Beyond the BLS for a Picture of the Jobs Market – WSJ
OTHER
The likelihood of a Trump presidency has plunged, now merely becoming a
tail-risk for the market. In this edition of Global FX Strategy we, amongst
other things, look at how a turn-around in the polls could impact upon the USD
and upon some specific EM currencies. A Trumpian turn-around might still be
possible.
Central Banks on QE Highway Worry About Running Out of Road – BB
Sustainability key for central banks far from inflation goals * Quantitative-easing
concerns include how to exit the programs
Remarks at the Fed’s 40th
annual central banking seminar
Today’s Markets in 54
Charts – WSJ
REGULARS
Super-strong US non-manufacturing
ISM, today ECB minutes . Fed Vice Chair calls for reforms. Treasury yields
retreating somewhat after recent surge.
GBPUSD is hovering above the 127.0
trapdoor Thursday morning after UK prime minister Theresa May took a political
angle on monetary policy with quantitative easing one of those in the firing
line.
Euro wrap-up
– Daiwa
The Dollar is Firm in Quiet Market
A few fixed income thoughts
BoE deputy governor: We were too
pessimistic about economic impact of Brexit vote * Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung: ‘Hard Brexit‘ will be hard for the EU * New services sector data
strongly suggests UK on course to avoid recession * Merkel warns of “extremely
complicated situation” if EU fundamental freedoms are split * AfD drops in
polls while CDU politician suggests forming a coalition * Orbán to push ahead
with constitutional amendments banning refugee resettlement without parliamentary
approval * Bratislava summit failed to deliver “sufficiently concrete” results
says Juncker * New European border force enters servic
EU border guard — Portugal to run UN
— Ducking Donald
US Open – ZH
US Futures Pressured By European
Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises
Frontrunning
– ZH
After a head-spinning comeback in
the ISM non-manufacturing survey in September a November Federal Reserve rate
hike could even be in play if tomorrow’s US jobs data are sufficiently strong.
The Federal Reserve will hold its
next meeting just ahead of the US presidential election. While this led many to
rule out a policy move at this juncture a surprisingly good ISM
non-manufacturing print for September has fuelled speculation that the November
1-2 meeting is "live".
FINNISH
EKP julkaisee
tarkempia tietoja syyskuun kokouksestaan * USA:n palvelusektorin
luottamusindeksi (ISM) oli erittäin vahva * Aamulla julkaistaan Saksan elokuun
tehdastilaukset * Ranska huutokauppaa pitkiä velkakirjoja