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Monday, October 3

3rd Oct - Brexit date and DBK relief

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Germany Sees Surge in Number of Refugees Receiving BenefitsWSJ
About half a million refugees in Germany received social security benefits in June, almost twice as many as a year earlier

Brexit really does mean Brexit, but what will Brexit mean? – Handelsbanken
Theresa May will introduce bill to take UK out of EU – Politico
Theresa May to begin Brexit process by end of March – Politico

Euro-area inflation: Strong case for further ECB easing – Nordea
Deutsche Bank’s Woes Put $2 Trillion of Bonds Beyond ECB’s Reach – BB

BofA upgrades DBK's cap structure, but does not like it – ZH
Deutsche farce – FT
What DBK tells us about the health of Europe’s banking system –  PIIE
Why DBK is on the ropes – Politico
DBK turmoil puts harsh spotlight on EU regulators – Politico
DBK Charged Over Paschi Accounts as Legal Hits Mount – BB
Mark Whitehouse: DBK Puts Safeguards to the Test – View / BB

US Economic Outlook: America at the turning pointNordea
Assuming that Hillary Clinton wins the White House at the November elections, we remain optimistic that the US economic recovery will continue also next year and in 2018. In case of a Trump win, however, the outlook would be rather different, with the economic damage felt far beyond the US. Thus a Trump presidency could result in a weaker US economy, with fewer jobs and higher unemployment, and a potentially sharp increase in financial market volatility.

Cyclical outlook: What Lies BeneathPIMCO
In our outlook for the remainder of this year and for 2017, we discuss the likelihood of continued economic expansion while assessing the underlying risks to growth.

Macro Monday: Q4 to focus on US politics and Eurozone riskTF
For the next few weeks if not the fourth quarter the central concerns will be US presidential politics and European banking sector concerns.

Quarterly Outlook: Carry me homeTF
Bonds have enjoyed strong year so far on back of QE, low-inflation environment * Core yields continue to remain low as global inflation lags * Inflation taking hold could put core European bonds in the firing line * An end to QE, oil spike would impact core bonds * Emerging-markets bonds rally can continue into Q4 despite risks * The carry trade looks set to run the duration of 2016

FX: calm before the storm?Nordea
The Q4 kicks in, and many market variables seem to have consolidated for a bigger move. Now that we have seen the oil price bump higher on OPEC decision last week, and factors are still in place for upside, the inflation risks are skewed up. This may be a trigger for breakouts...

BoJ motive suggestions (with bonus rejections) - FT
Explaining the BoJ's shift to Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE) with yield curve control is hard.

IMF's Reserve DataMarc Chandler
Dollar Share Little Changed, Yen Share Jumps, Helped By Valuation

James Gleick: A Nonlinear History of Time TravelNautilus
Births, deaths, and other time travel paradoxes.

High Hitler: how Nazi drug abuse steered the course of historyThe Guardian
German writer Norman Ohler’s astonishing account of methamphetamine addiction in the Third Reich changes what we know about the second world war

How Bankers Live With ThemselvesThe Atlantic
One man conducted hundreds of interviews to understand the motivation and morality of those in the finance industry.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Focus returns to US data – ISM and jobs report. Upside bias for long rates, as oil up and panic fades. GBP weaker on May comments, but no game changer.

Morning MarketsTF
There was a sigh of relief over the global banking sector in Asia today with investors taking a lead from the rally on Wall Street on Friday. In Australia the big four banks made steady gains driving the S&P/ASX200 into positive territory.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
May's Confirmation Sends Sterling Lower

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Negotiation by headline

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears


FX UpdateTF
Sterling sags on UK PM Theresa May’s first major Brexit speech amid “hard Brexit” fears. Elsewhere is the NOK surge overdone? And what about the AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting?

From the Floor TF
Last week Opec finally announced a production cut. Oil rallied in the immediate wake of the news but the surge has now halted. Saxo's Ole Hansen however still sees potential for another spike in crude.

Yhdysvaltain presidenttikisa kovenee * EKP:ltä odotetaan lisäelvytystä joulukuussa * Britannian syyskuun teollisuuden ostopäällikköindeksi osoittanee teollisuussektorin kasvun jatkuneen * Odotamme perjantaina julkaistavan USA:n työllisyyden muutoksen tukevan joulukuun koronnostoa

Tutkijaryhmä: rahaliitosta ulos hinnalla millä hyvänsäTalSa

How to abandon the common currency in exchange for a new national currencyEurothinktank