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Friday, October 28

28th Oct - Good US GDP, nervousness

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European press reflects Open Europe
A sense of vulnerability after a bruising week for free trade and liberalism in the EU

EC Pushes Back on (8) Draft BudgetsMarc Chandler
EU finance ministers tussle over importance of fiscal rulesPolitico

Bad News for European Corporate BondsBB

Stephen Pope: Europe's banks need bullying by BaselTF

Bitesize: Periodicity of GBP/USD trading activities – BOE
Bank of England's Mark Carney Prepares His Own Brexit – View / BB
Pound Spurred by Fear of the Future Shrugs Off Good News – BB
BOE to Forge Ahead With Gilt Buying Strategy, Deutsche Bank Says – BB

ECB's HeadachesDanske Bank
ECB Stimulus Champions Signal QE to Endure as Economy Heals – BB

First GDP numbers for Q3 – moderate growth – Nordea
French Stop-Start Recovery Can’t Compete With Spanish Growth – BB
Taking stock of the latest European GDP numbers – Pictet
Euro zone economic sentiment jumps in October – Reuters

U.S. labor costs increase 0.6 percent in third quarter – Reuters
Worker Compensation +0.6% for Third Straight Quarter – BB
Exports boost Q3 growth; consumer spending slows – Reuters
Growth Rebounds on Boost From Exports, Inventories – BB
Q3 GDP At A Glance – WSJ
Real GDP increased at 2.9% Annualized Rate in Q3 – Bill McBride
Higher Inventory, Exports * Weak Consumption, Investment – ZH
Economists React: ‘The U.S. Is Roughly on Track’ – WSJ

Q3 GDP: Investment – Bill McBride
GDP Takeaways: More Soybeans, Less Spending – WSJ
Strong U.S. GDP report conceals softness of some components – Pictet

US Consumer Confidence Crashes To 2 Year Lows – ZH
October Consumer Sentiment declines to 87.2 – Bill McBride

Trump gains, but Clinton remains most likely winner – Danske Bank
Steen Jakobsen: Why things came to this – TF
Dembik Christopher: Europe not ready for next president – TF

Jan von Gerich: Bonds - Reaching for the stars or dead cat bounce? Nordea
Inflation worries are finally making a comeback. Coupled with some concerns of near-term ECB tapering and better economic data they make a dangerous cocktail for bonds. While the risks of a bigger sell-off should by no means be ignored, a gradual stabilization followed by a renewed fall in yields still looks more likely before the year is over. In the very near-term though, yields may rise further.

Halloween in fixed income marketsFT
The FT's Katie Martin and Anthony Doyle of M&G discuss current fears in the fixed income market, including negative yields, inflation growth and emerging markets debt.

German Bonds in Worst Month Since 2013 as Global Selloff DeepensBB
Investors Bail on Bonds as Selloff DeepensBB

These Are the Charts That Scare Wall Street BB
For finance professionals, Corporate America's credit cycle and the U.S. economic outlook — not to mention Brexit-induced stresses and debt dynamics in Asia — are all spookier than a deranged-looking Bozo.

Interview: Michael HaydenPlayboy
Former NSA Boss Michael Hayden on Hillary’s Emails, Hacking and Russia

Danske DailyDanske Bank

GDP day in the US and Europe * Strong rise in long-term bond yields * SEK hit by Schrödinger’s cut

Morning MarketsTF
The US dollar is holding firm against its peers after government bonds and other safe-haven assets took a tumble on the perception that the global economy is steadying after a protracted period of turbulence.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Sidelined, Krona Stabilizes, Rates Firm

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Fixed income: beginning of the trend or beginning of the end?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
UK GDP growth beats expectations as Nissan reiterates commitment to Sunderland plant * EU-Canada trade deal on course for approval as Wallonia agrees to support the deal * Aberdeen Asset Management boss says industry can cope with loss of EU passport * Second referendum proposal ruled out by Swiss government * Deadline for Dutch decision on EU-Ukraine Treaty today * Mundell: UK seeks bespoke deal to “maximise involvement” in EU single market

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
CETA saga D-Day — Pirate takeover — Russian Gas Leak

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
Bond rout * UBS, RBS earnings * U.S. GDP * Stocks drop * OPEC meeting

Global Stocks Drop On Poor Earnings, Bond "Bloodbath" Ahead Of US Q3 GDP


FX Update TF
USDJPY has pulled to new local highs as global sovereign yields spiked higher yesterday. A further rise in yields could mean significant room for USDJPY to run higher from here. Next week offers a busy calendar ahead of the US presidential election the following Tuesday.

From the FloorTF

USA:n BKT perjantain valopilkku * Ruotsin keskuspankki piti ohjauskoron -0,50 prosentissa * USA:n työvoimakustannusindeksi (ECI) pysynee edellisen neljänneksen tasolla * Ranska ja Espanja julkistavat ensimmäisinä suurina euromaina kolmannen neljänneksen BKT-luvut