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Friday, October 28

28th Oct - Good US GDP, nervousness






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EUROPE
European press reflects – Open Europe
A sense of vulnerability after a bruising week for free trade and liberalism in the EU

EC Pushes Back on (8) Draft Budgets – Marc Chandler
EU finance ministers tussle over importance of fiscal rules – Politico

Bad News for European Corporate Bonds – BB

Stephen Pope: Europe's banks need bullying by Basel – TF

  UNITED KINGDOM
Bitesize: Periodicity of GBP/USD trading activities – BOE
Bank of England's Mark Carney Prepares His Own Brexit – View / BB
Pound Spurred by Fear of the Future Shrugs Off Good News – BB
BOE to Forge Ahead With Gilt Buying Strategy, Deutsche Bank Says – BB

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB's Headaches – Danske Bank
ECB Stimulus Champions Signal QE to Endure as Economy Heals – BB

  MACRO NUMBERS
First GDP numbers for Q3 – moderate growth – Nordea
French Stop-Start Recovery Can’t Compete With Spanish Growth – BB
Taking stock of the latest European GDP numbers – Pictet
Euro zone economic sentiment jumps in October – Reuters
 
  
UNITED STATES

  MACRO NUMBERS
U.S. labor costs increase 0.6 percent in third quarter – Reuters
Worker Compensation +0.6% for Third Straight Quarter – BB
Exports boost Q3 growth; consumer spending slows – Reuters
Growth Rebounds on Boost From Exports, Inventories – BB
Q3 GDP At A Glance – WSJ
Real GDP increased at 2.9% Annualized Rate in Q3 – Bill McBride
Higher Inventory, Exports * Weak Consumption, Investment – ZH
Economists React: ‘The U.S. Is Roughly on Track’ – WSJ

Q3 GDP: Investment – Bill McBride
GDP Takeaways: More Soybeans, Less Spending – WSJ
Strong U.S. GDP report conceals softness of some components – Pictet

US Consumer Confidence Crashes To 2 Year Lows – ZH
October Consumer Sentiment declines to 87.2 – Bill McBride


  ELECTIONS
Trump gains, but Clinton remains most likely winner – Danske Bank
Steen Jakobsen: Why things came to this – TF
Dembik Christopher: Europe not ready for next president – TF


OTHER
Jan von Gerich: Bonds - Reaching for the stars or dead cat bounce? – Nordea
Inflation worries are finally making a comeback. Coupled with some concerns of near-term ECB tapering and better economic data they make a dangerous cocktail for bonds. While the risks of a bigger sell-off should by no means be ignored, a gradual stabilization followed by a renewed fall in yields still looks more likely before the year is over. In the very near-term though, yields may rise further.

Halloween in fixed income markets – FT
The FT's Katie Martin and Anthony Doyle of M&G discuss current fears in the fixed income market, including negative yields, inflation growth and emerging markets debt.


German Bonds in Worst Month Since 2013 as Global Selloff Deepens – BB
Investors Bail on Bonds as Selloff Deepens – BB

These Are the Charts That Scare Wall Street – BB
For finance professionals, Corporate America's credit cycle and the U.S. economic outlook — not to mention Brexit-induced stresses and debt dynamics in Asia — are all spookier than a deranged-looking Bozo.

Interview: Michael Hayden – Playboy
Former NSA Boss Michael Hayden on Hillary’s Emails, Hacking and Russia


REGULARS
Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea
GDP day in the US and Europe * Strong rise in long-term bond yields * SEK hit by Schrödinger’s cut

Morning Markets – TF
The US dollar is holding firm against its peers after government bonds and other safe-haven assets took a tumble on the perception that the global economy is steadying after a protracted period of turbulence.

Euro wrap-up – Daiwa

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler
Dollar Sidelined, Krona Stabilizes, Rates Firm

Daily Market Comment – Macro Man
Fixed income: beginning of the trend or beginning of the end?

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
UK GDP growth beats expectations as Nissan reiterates commitment to Sunderland plant * EU-Canada trade deal on course for approval as Wallonia agrees to support the deal * Aberdeen Asset Management boss says industry can cope with loss of EU passport * Second referendum proposal ruled out by Swiss government * Deadline for Dutch decision on EU-Ukraine Treaty today * Mundell: UK seeks bespoke deal to “maximise involvement” in EU single market

Brussels Playbook – Politico
CETA saga D-Day — Pirate takeover — Russian Gas Leak

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB
Bond rout * UBS, RBS earnings * U.S. GDP * Stocks drop * OPEC meeting

US Open – ZH
Global Stocks Drop On Poor Earnings, Bond "Bloodbath" Ahead Of US Q3 GDP

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update – TF
USDJPY has pulled to new local highs as global sovereign yields spiked higher yesterday. A further rise in yields could mean significant room for USDJPY to run higher from here. Next week offers a busy calendar ahead of the US presidential election the following Tuesday.

From the Floor – TF


FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
USA:n BKT perjantain valopilkku * Ruotsin keskuspankki piti ohjauskoron -0,50 prosentissa * USA:n työvoimakustannusindeksi (ECI) pysynee edellisen neljänneksen tasolla * Ranska ja Espanja julkistavat ensimmäisinä suurina euromaina kolmannen neljänneksen BKT-luvut