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Wednesday, October 26

26th Oct - Dip day

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Editorial: This Is No Way to Mend Europe’s BanksView / BB
They need capital, not coddling.

Matteo Renzi pledges to veto EU budget over refugee crisisPolitico

No industry, no growthGefira
Southern Europe’s production start declining after euro adoption

May Said to Want Carney to Stay as He Reflects on BOE RoleBB

Losses Accelerate for Europe Stocks on Earnings DisappointmentsBB

Steen Jakobsen: US Election: Nothing to loseTF
US election less about Trump or Clinton policies, more about need for change

El-Erian: Why This Dollar Surge Is Different for the FedView / BB
The currency's increase, which hasn't affected stocks, gives more reason to expect a rate hike in December.

Globalization Goes Into ReverseView / BB
Trade, capital flows and immigration have slowed or declined.  Credit the Great Recession, not the protesters.

Exchange rate predictability in the medium termvox
The IMF invests significant resources in developing models to estimate equilibrium exchange rates. This column assesses the predictive power of one vintage of IMF exchange rate models during 2006–2011. The models performed exceptionally well at predicting exchange rate movements over the medium run, which is particularly remarkable given that the period covered the unanticipated Global Crisis and the assessments were not shared publicly at the time.

99% of actively managed US equity funds underperformFT
Almost all US, global and EM funds have failed to beat their benchmark since 2006

Rates Strategy: Volatility - Low, yet up for a change
Volatility has declined during the past month, yet key events lures in the horizon. In particular certain segments of the EUR vol grid have declined markedly. We review three key events to the vol market ahead of year end and recommend a 3M10Y atmf payer swaption.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Oil falls; GBP gains on Carney comments * Germany on track for more robust growth * Long end squeezed as Austrian 70-year bond hits markets * GBP drops on inflation comments from BoE governor Carney

Morning MarketsTF
European equities are set to open lower on Wednesday in the wake of a weak Asian session and a 2% fall by Apple the world's biggest company after in unveiled a third straight quarter of declining y-o-y revenues.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Euro and Yen Extend Recovery

Daily Market CommentMacro Man

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Global Stocks, US Futures Drop On Apple Disappointment, Sliding Crude


FX UpdateTF
The USD saw a brief new surge yesterday that was quickly turned back as we await next week’s important US data. Elsewhere the AUD surged anew as headline Q3 CPI came in higher than expected.

Saksan pitkissä koroissa pohjakosketuksen makua * Suomen työllisyystilanne koheni syyskuussa odotettua enemmän * Saksan Ifo-indeksi nousi korkeimmalle tasolleen yli kahteen vuoteen * Itävallan ultrapitkän velkakirjan kysyntä oli vahvaa