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Monday, October 31

31st Oct - Carney stays at BoE

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Switzerland's Back to Battling Might of Global Currency MarketsBB
SNB is seen defending an unofficial franc cap of 1.08 per euro * Expanding balance sheet, rise in volatility viewed as dangers

Refugees and Economic Migrants: Facts, policies and challengesvox

On the downfall of Deutsche BankSpiegel

Too Big to FailHandelsblatt
While Italy struggles with weak growth, rising debt and political instability, its European partners are left with little choice but to continue supporting it.

Italy’s Bonds Slump as Polls Show Nation Rejecting Renzi VoteBB

Europe’s Bond Rout Unlocks $635 Billion of Debt for ECB Buying – BB
Inflation Wobble in Bond Markets is Loosening the ECB’s QE Straitjacket – WSJ
Inflation pickup comes with underlying weakness –

BOE’s Carney May Decide on Future in Coming Days, Times Says – BB
London Property Defies the Brexit Scaremongers – BB
The fundamental factors behind the Brexit vote – vox
Theresa May supports full term for Mark Carney – Politico
May Renews Support for Carney as Decision on BOE Future Nears – BB
Carney to Stay at BOE Until June 2019 to Help Address Brexit – BB
Canadian federal election due in late 2019, BoE announces – FT
Mark Carney to step down as BoE governor in 2019 - Politico
Carney's Tenure: Brief Thoughts – Marc Chandler
Carney to end of June 2019, BoE likely to keep easing bias – Danske Bank

Soft inflation numbers, stable but moderate GDP growth – Nordea
Euro area GDP growth in line with expectations – Pictet
Headline prices rise in the euro area, but core inflation still subdued – Pictet

US presidential election day: the timelineABN AMRO

U.S. consumer spending increases solidly, inflation rising – Reuters
Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs by Most in Three Months – BB
Core US inflation should rise only modestly – Pictet

Macro Monday: Four central banks walk into a bar… - TF
There are meetings ahead for the RBA BoJ US Fed and the BoE with a possible hawkish surprise from BoE's Carney. Clinton's lead of 10-12 points has fallen 1-2 points after a renewed FBI probe

Jan von Gerich Bonds: Inflation resistant
Intra-Euro-area bond spreads have not followed German yields higher. While this resilience is unlikely to last, an ECB extension should prevent a bigger widening of spreads.

Aurelija Augulyte FX: MovemberNordea
The USD rally got stopped at the end of last week, and the EUR/USD is back up as the US data improves. The BoE surprised positively - good for GBP. The AUD/USD ready to break out, just as the USD/JPY may pull back...

The Real October SurpriseZH
Stocks, Bonds, Gold, & Oil All Dump As The Dollar Jumps

OPEC Splits Prevent Deal With Other Producers to Curb Supply
Output-cut accord hinges on positions of Iran and Iraq * Oman, Russia willing to participate if OPEC has its own accord

Why macroeconomists need to study history
Scott Sumner

JPM: Shift To Passive Investing Increases Systemic Risk

Decoding pro wrestling Seth Godin

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Morning MarketsTF
The FBI probe of Clinton's emails has led to some risk-off mode of which gold and other safe havens profit.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Respite for Market Nerves, Lifts Peso, Rand, and US Dollar,

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
The intrusion of politics

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayBB
E-mail saga * Carney conjecture * OPEC failure * Stocks drop * Spain stability

Global Stocks Mixed, Futures Rise As Oil Stumbles After OPEC Fails To Agree On Supply Cuts


FX UpdateTF
We have an onslaught of important event risks through next Tuesday’s main event – the US presidential election starting with tonight’s BoJ and RBA meetings. Later this week sterling levels likely to prove volatile over a pivotal BoE meeting on Thursday.

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

10 väärinkäsitystä taloudesta
Matti Viren