Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s ‘Weekly Support’ is here.
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LAST WEEK
"It's
Really Broken" - Divergences & Decouplings Dominate Week In Stocks,
Bonds, FX
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill
McBride
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Global Week Ahead – BB
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
Second
wind for stocks as earnings turn positive
Weighing the Week
Ahead – Jeff
Miller
We
have normal week for economic data, including the first estimate for Q3 GDP.
There are also important earnings reports. Election stories have become even
more intense. Meanwhile, the market has been pretty quiet. I expect financial
media to be asking: When will the trading range be broken?
Key Events Week Ahead - ZH
Portugal’s downgrade is unlikely. Anyway,
a toolbox is ready. So much power in the pencil of a rating agency * ECB
waiting for December, Draghi restated ECB will preserve substantial
accommodation until inflation has returned sustainably to target
In
the week after the (pretty uneventful) ECB meeting and before the FOMC meeting
in early November, the attention will turn to GDP numbers for Q3. Growth
probably picked up in the US and France, but slowed down in the UK. Regarding
Nordic central banks, we expect more easing from the Riksbank but Norges Bank
on hold.
EZ
October PMI * UK and US Q3 GDP * Sweden’s and Norway’s central banks meet
The
ECB is likely to extend QE in December and avoid stimulus, which would hurt the
European banking sector * We expect EUR/USD to fall near term on relative
monetary policy expectations,
politics * We see EUR/GBP heading towards 0.92 on 3-6M. USD/CNY uptrend
to continue * Short term, we see equities as a buy-on-dips.
US:
good enough, but not for a November rate hike * Asia: profit growth helps to
counter China credit worries * Europe: economy and earnings in focus * Canada:
focus on earnings * Latin America: Banxico watching US polls
M&A
Is In Very Late Cycle Mode
Global
inflation has started to move higher and will likely rise further in the next
few months * Energy price inflation will go from being negative to being
positive, while global manufactured goods price deflation has faded * Still
there are reasons to think that the rise will be not be too sharp or sustained
* Economic growth, while improving, is still lacklustre, while spare capacity
around the world is keeping a lid on domestic price pressures
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
are Less Bullish the Yen and Scramble to Cover Peso Shorts
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Golden
Cross in Dollar Index is the Deadman's Cross in the Euro
Macro
Comment – Marc Chandler