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Monday, October 17

17th Oct - ECB week

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The strange mania for Swiss National Bank sharesJP Koning

Draghi Seen Embracing More Before Less QE as Inflation Edges Up
Survey shows economists predict ECB will extend QE in December * Tapering of bond-buying plan may start in second half of 2017

ECB preview—Bank has no shortage of optionsPictet
While we expect no concrete action at this week’s policy meeting, we believe extension of QE is coming and bond scarcity issues will be addressed.

Portugal may avoid ratings downgrade, but medium-term risks remain Pictet
DBRS issues an update of its rating for Portugal on Friday, 21 October.

Spain’s kickback culture on trialPolitico
Court case involves the PM’s party, millions of euros and a man nicknamed Don Vito.

Structural Reforms and GreeceSimon Wren-Lewis

Italy’s Renzi Pushes Tax Cut, Investments as Referendum LoomsBB
Ministers pass measures for 2017 in effort to support growth * Corporate tax Ires cut to 24 percent from 27.5 percent

Will Italy Leave the EU? Follow the MoneyView / BB

Britain after Brexit: Lionel Barber’s lecture in TokyoFT
Edited version of September 27 lecture

Six Reasons to Be Wary of Brexit Optimism
View / BB
In an effort to free Britain to do more and better deals, the Brexiters may well have slowed it down.

El-Erian: Markets Send Theresa May a Message on BrexitView / BB
Not a good idea to signal the dismantling of longstanding economic and financial tenets without simultaneously proposing a comprehensive and credible alternative.

The dominance of BrexitFrances Coppola
The current fall in sterling is entirely due to Brexit. And the current account deficit is likely to close because of the effect of Brexit on trade and investment.

UK’s financial services sector after Brexit
Open Europe
The value of the EU financial services ‘passport’ and what alternative arrangements the UK should pursue as part of the upcoming Brexit talks with the EU-27.

May Backs Carney After Doubting Whether BOE Actions HelpedBB
Carney defended central bank independence at event on Friday * Governor to decide this year how long to stay at BOE

Don’t Go Looking for Theresa May’s Secret Brexit PlanBB
U.K. premier to attend first EU summit in Brussels Oct. 20-21 * Prime minister’s modus operandi scrutinized for clues

French plot revolt over new European rules for failing banksFT
Paris fears its banks will be disproportionately hit by new European rules for failing banks

DBK Said to Explore Shrinking U.S. Operations – BB
DBK considering changes to U.S. strategy: sources – Reuters
DBK's options to solve capital dilemma seen to be limited – Reuters

Janet Yellen: Macroeconomic Research After the CrisisFED

How the Polls Could Be WrongView / BB

Wall Street Is Starting to Talk About a Big Democratic Sweep in NovemberBB

Industrial Production Back to ‘Anemic’ – Analysts React – WSJ
Is this Why US Industrial Companies Don’t Invest? – Wolf Street

Steen Jakobsen’s Macro Digest: The cost of capital is everythingTF
This is the end of interventionism, not capitalism * Trickle-down wealth failed to trickle *BoJ has finally acknowledged that QE doesn't work * Japan is readying for helicopter money * US to hit recession and Europe and EM will follow

Four Key Events in the Week AheadMarc Chandler

A Few Thoughts on Canada Marc Chandler

Key Events In The Coming Week ZH

Is Oil about to Rollover? Marc Chandler

Inside the Secret Society of Wall Street's Top In-House LawyersBB
Wall Street general counsels have met for roughly two decades * Lawyers discussed banding together against plaintiffs’ lawyers

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Overshooting inflation, bond sell-off continues, USD gains * ECB and final US presidential debate on the agenda. Euro-area bonds to trade without direction until Draghi. Yellen likes to run it hot.

Morning MarketsTF
Dollar's muscle flexing has propelled EURUSD into sub-1.10 territory as the greenback reacts to somewhat mixed signals out of the Federal Reserve over the weekend including a tilt back towards the dove camp from chair Janet Yellen.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Starts Week Narrowly Mixed, while Bonds and Stocks Retreat

Daily Market Comment Macro Man
Monday blues

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Poll: Voters think Government should prioritise trade over immigration * UK government considers continuing EU budget payments post-Brexit

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Montenegro election drama — Renzi, the Trudeau of Italy?

Global Stocks Slide, Futures Pressured As Bond Yields Jump To Highest Since June

Frontrunning ZH

From the FloorTF

Today's trade opened with the USD gaining ground on a deepening consensus surrounding a December rate hike from the Fed with the consequent USDJPY rally perhaps pointing to a related one in Japanese stocks.

USA:ssa julkaistaan syyskuun teollisuustuotannon luvut * USA:n vähittäismyynti kasvoi syyskuussa vahvimmin kolmeen kuukauteen * Yellen piti puheen perjantai-iltana * Markkinoiden huomio EKP:ssa