10th May - No trade deal #4085

EUROPE

The ECB Weighs a Profound Shift in Policy – BB

As candidates jostle to replace Mario Draghi, Olli Rehn has called for a rethink of the bank’s objectives. A hard 2% inflation target would be a start.

French tax cuts designed to reboot Macron’s presidency – Pictet

Following a series of townhall meetings with French citizens up and down France, President Emmanuel Macron responded to social unrest with two doses of fiscal easing.

Euro area inflation under the microscope: simmering, not boiling – Danske Bank

With clouds over the growth outlook clearing a little, unit labour costs rising and firms' margins being squeezed, we still see strong arguments for core inflation to reach rates of 1.3-1.4% by year-end. However, we emphasise that it will be a gradual uptrend, as the current economic environment remains fragile.

OTHER

A tour of the global economy - in one chart pack! – Danske Bank

U.S. Recession Would Spur ‘Massive’ Corporate Bond Losses, Eisman Says – BB

Uber, Lyft difficult to short because valuation doesn’t matter * U.S., China will reach a trade deal at last minute, he says

US-CHINA TRADE WAR
US Hikes China Tariffs; China Vows To Retaliate – ZH

Chinese New Credit Unexpectedly Grows Less Than Expected – ZH

US hikes tariffs leaving high uncertainty in place – Danske Bank

US-China trade talks end without agreement – FT

Stocks rise after President Trump says ‘conversations’ will continue

REGULARS

Five Things to Start Your Day Asia – BB

Eco Day Asia – BB

Trade Tariff Countdown, Gig Deflation, Trump Targets FX * China is armed with powerful market weapons in duel with Trump * Bezos shows off Blue Origin moon lander: it’s time to go back

Five Things to Start Your Day Europe – BB

EU Open Rundown – RANsquawk

FirstFT Daily Briefing – FT

Brussels Briefing – FT

Brussels Edition – BB

Brussels Playbook – Politico

A little summit somethin’ — Spitzen-split — Spend or be spent

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

More tariffs more uncertainty

Eco Day Europe – BB

Broken Trade Talks, Rajan's BOE Job Odds, Norway Rates * Fed’s Brainad wants to hear more about targeting yield curve * President Trump blames Beijing during Florida campaign rally

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Five Things to Start Your Day US – BB

US Open Rundown – RANsquawk

Eco Day US – BB

Tariffs Hiked, BOJ's Concerns, the Gig Economy * U.S. duties rise to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods * RBA sees housing slump weighing on consumption and inflation

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

Kauppaneuvotteluissa ei saatu ratkaisua ja tullit nousivat, mutta neuvottelut jatkuvat tänään | Julkaisuvuorossa Norjan ja USA:n pohjainflaatiot huhtikuulta | Norjan keskuspankin kesäkuun koronnosto on erittäin todennäköinen