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World Economy
Weekly
– BB
Questions
over the global rebound mount amid trade clash * Search for new central banks
heats up from Frankfurt to Ottawa
Take Five – Reuters
Sino-U.S.
trade war * Trade blips on Fed’s radar * Eurosceptics at the gates * Let’s talk
shops * Watch your PMIs
EcoWeek – BNP
PARIBAS
Import
tariffs have a negative impact on the targeted country. Retaliation will in
turn have negative consequences for the country which started the tariff hikes *
Even in the absence of retaliation, there will be negative consequences
Week
in Focus – Ransquawk
Global Week Ahead – Scotiabank
US:
Powell speaks, FOMC minutes * Europe: PMIs, European parliament elections
Week Ahead – Nordea
Trump
has effectively killed the Asian green shoots narrative, but will he kill
Europe with auto tariffs this weekend as well? Meanwhile semiconductors paint
an extremely gloomy earnings picture, as Matteo Salvini is gearing up for EP
elections.
Weekly Focus – Danske
Bank
PMIs
from Europe and US * US-China trade talks restarting? * EU elections
Key events in
developed markets next week – ING
The
rise of US-China trade tensions will be the key theme next week. In the
near-term, this is likely to dampen both sentiment and activity, and we may see
this already reflected in the German IFO survey. Trade aside, the focus will be
on the European Parliament elections
Macro Weekly – ABN
AMRO
Manufacturing
remains in the doldrums * Disappointing Chinese April data after strong March *Also
a range of positives to note, but trade conflict poses risk
Key events in EMEA
and Latam next week –
ING
Data
from Poland next week should show a rebound in retail sales and wage growth, as
well as signs of resilience in industry, signalling the economy is in no danger
of an imminent slowdown
Asia Week Ahead – ING
Australia
goes to the polls over the weekend, while an end to long-standing political
uncertainty in India, Indonesia, and Thailand finally seems around the corner.
GDP, manufacturing, and inflation data dominate the economic space
China Weekly – Danske
Bank
China
has started to beat the nationalist drum and shows no signs of giving in to US
demands of changing its laws as part of a trade deal * Trump has issued an
executive order, banning Huawei and ZTE in the US * Xi warns that aim to remould
other civilisations would be 'a stupid idea and a disastrous act' * More bad
data in April. Recovery is postponed and more stimulus is on the way * CNY
keeps weakening, more to come.
FX
Weekly – Nordea
We
still consider the spill-overs from the trade war “muted”, but in so far
markets are to be trusted the green shoots narrative is over and done with for
now. In Scandis, we consider the price-action in NOK/SEK constructive for a
further move lower.