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Monday, May 6

6th May - Trump's tariff tweets #4081

Race to Replace Draghi Spurs ECB Calls for Fed-Style RethinkBB
Finnish contender for presidency wants a review of strategy * Some warn against tinkering with mandate despite low inflation

The Eurozone's Long Depression Frances Coppola
Something fundamentally changed when the Eurozone crisis struck. As Adam points out, government net investment completely vanished and has never returned. But it was not exactly large prior to the crisis. The chart shows that collapsing corporate investment is the real story of the Eurozone crisis.

Harr’s View: The future of Europe –why are reforms so hard Danske Bank
It will be difficult to reach a political consensus for a stabilisation function within the EU to provide fiscal support for countries in a downturn before the next crisis hits.

Euro Area Macro Monitor: Receding recession risksDanske Bank

The making of Amazon Prime, the internet’s most successful and devastating membership programVOX
An oral history of the subscription service that changed online shopping forever.

The World of Hedge Fund Private InvestigatorsInstitutional Investor

Carmen M. Reinhart: Explaining Inflation InertiaProject Syndicate
Despite central bankers' concerted efforts, credible price-stability targets have proved elusive in countries like Argentina, where inflation is soaring, and Japan, which can't shake the specter of deflation. What can governments do to influence inflation expectations when central banks’ policies prove insufficient to the task?

Why Capitalism Needs PopulismProject Syndicate  
Globalization, digital technologies, and other factors have allowed competitive US corporations to achieve market dominance. If the past is any guide, it is only right that these "superstar" firms should now be challenged by grassroots political movements protesting against an unholy alliance of private-sector and government elites.

The U.S. Stock Market Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop Its Endless Rally
Welcome to the party that won’t quit even as regular investors are leaving.

If This Is a Tech Bubble in Stocks, It's the Expansionary PhaseBB
Nasdaq 100’s market cap vs S&P 500 approaching dot-com highs * But unlike 2000, stock prices are more in line with profits

SocGen Slams That "Other" VIX Chart And Reveals The "Most Important Driver Of Long-Term Volatility"

Is The VIX About To Explode Higher Thanks To A Record Short SqueezeZH

After the Stock Carnage, Wait for the YawnBB
Trade tensions are no longer the driving force for markets, in the U.S. or China.

Trump vows tariff hike on Chinese goods, escalating tension in trade talksReuters
Trump said he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week and target hundreds of billions more soon.

Trump's Trade Threats Hurt the U.S. More Than China BB
The president justifies tariffs by arguing that China will foot the bill. That theory doesn’t hold up in the real world.

‘Tariff Man Is Back’: Stock Futures Sink on Trump Trade TweetsBB
President says levies to rise on $200 billion in goods * Yearlong trade war looms over markets near all-time highs

With Two Tweets, Trump Shatters Historic Calm in Global MarketsBB
Renewed threat of import tariffs roils stocks, currencies * China’s stocks tumble along with yuan, while VIX futures jump

Policy by Tweet: US Announces New Tariffs on ChinaMarc Chandler

China stocks tumble as Trump threatens to raise tariffsFT
Move by US president to ramp up pressure on Beijing sends CSI 300 index 6% lower

Market Fallout in Charts: Investors React to U.S. Tariff ThreatBB
Yuan climbs with Treasury futures; U.S. stock futures slide * Trump says will lift China tariffs, impose more import taxes

Why US Democrats don’t want to mention Trump’s (trade) warFT
US-China dispute has hit farmers but presidential hopefuls are reluctant to campaign against it

S&P Futures Plummet As China Said To Cancel Washington Trade TripZH

New uncertainty as Trump threatens of new tariffsDanske Bank
With Trump going into the election campaign, we still do not think he would risk a no-deal outcome that would most likely derail the stock market rally and cause a dive in economic sentiment.

Trump again threatens China with higher tariffsING
President Trump has returned to threatening China with higher US import tariffs. This is part of his risky but potentially rewarding negotiation strategy. We still expect a US- China trade deal

China still preparing for talks as Trump cranks up pressureReuters
China said a delegation is still traveling to the United States for trade talks, after President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on Beijing to reach a deal, saying he would hike tariffs on Chinese goods this week.

What would be the impact of additional US-China tariffs?ABN AMRO
Global Macro: Direct impact mostly on inflation, but watch financial conditions and confidence

The Theory That (Might) Explain Trump’s Trade WarBB
One school of economic thought argues that bilateral agreements are better than multilateral ones.

Five Things to Start Your Day AsiaBB

Eco Day AsiaBB
RBA Could Cut, Trump China Threat, `Tone Deaf' Powell * Indonesia’s economy seen maintaining momentum in first quarter * Singapore pursues ‘promising leads’ for Asia infrastructure

Five Things to Start Your Day EuropeBB

EU Open RundownRANsquawk

FirstFT Daily BriefingFT

Brussels BriefingFT
Europe’s global act: EU’s unity is increasingly being tested by dynamics both within and outside the EU

Brussels EditionBB

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Road to Sibiu — Political anatomy — Sausage democracy

Danske DailyDanske Bank
Risk sentiment takes a hit from renewed trade uncertainty

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
Trump's Tariff Tweets Help Investors Discover Volatility

Five Things to Start Your Day USBB

US Open RundownRANsquawk

Trump uhkasi sunnuntaina Twitterissä nostavansa Kiinan vastaiset tullit 10:stä 25:een prosenttiin | Julkistusten osalta hiljaisempi viikko luvassa | USA:n työmarkkinoiden hyvä veto jatkui huhtikuussa