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Thursday, October 2

1st Oct - Bear day, ECB tomorrow

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Iceland: goodbye to capital controls?Danske Bank
...not yet but we are getting closer

Germany Replaces China as World’s Trade-Surplus BoogeymanWSJ

Germany Fights to Keep The Euro Zone TogetherEconmatters
The European Court of Justice announced Sept. 22 that hearings in the case against the ECB’s OMT-programme will begin Oct. 14. Though the process is likely to be lengthy, with a judgment not due until mid-2015, the ruling will have serious implications for Germany's relationship with the rest of the eurozone.

Focus Germany: Heightened risksDB Research

The Russian budgetThe Economist
Economic pain, caused by Ukraine

Russia defence spending facts of the dayFT

Germany Throws Up Over Draghi Plan To Buy Greek JunkZH
The ECB’s executive board will propose that existing requirements on the quality of assets accepted by the bank are relaxed to allow the eurozone’s monetary guardian to buy the safer slices of Greek and Cypriot asset backed securities, or ABS, say people familiar with the matter.

No mystery: ECB has already announced quantitative easingTradingFloor
Details of the ECB's plan to buy private sector assets will be announced Thursday * The real intention is to lower the exchange rate * Indications point to a lack of ABS and covered bonds available to achieve goal

What is the ECB to Do?Marc to Market
The focus is on the details of the asset-backed securities and covered bond plan that was announced last month. There are three key issues related to this new initiative:  What instruments will be purchased,  how much will be bought, and how long will the purchase program last?

No mystery: ECB has already announced quantitative easingTradingFloor
Despite the ongoing speculation about whether the European Central Bank will announce a quantitative easing program, it's clear from Mario Draghi's comments earlier last month that it already has. However, Thursday's announcement will provide specific details regarding its asset purchase plan.

New ECB Steps Unlikely; ABS Buying Details SoughtWSJ

5 Details to Watch at the ECB’s October MeetingWSJ

ECB's Draghi repeats call for reforms, fiscal actionReuters
Draghi urged euro zone governments on Wednesday to do their part to boost economic growth through structural reforms, saying monetary policy alone was not enough to revive confidence and spur investment.

Draghi Says ECB Hopes to Get at Root of Eurozone’s Economic ProblemsWSJ

ISM Manufacturing index declines to 56.6 in September – Calculated Risk
ISM manufacturing declines - more downside risk in coming months – Danske Bank
ISM Biggest Miss Since January – ZH
ISM Manufacturing Index: Disappointing September Growth – dshort
Disappointing ISM Manufacturing Report – Bespoke

Construction Spending decreased 0.8% in August – Calculated Risk

Everybody was umbrella fighting...Humble Student
In my last two posts, I highlighted the rising tail-risk from the protests in Hong Kong (see The Big Kahuna Korrection, or buy Yom Kippur? and HK tail-risk is rising). While the markets focuses on the actions of the ECB and the US Employment report this week, the risk of the derailment of one of the three key engines of global growth, namely China, is heightened.

'Umbrella Revolution' forces China to confront limitsReuters
Leaders in Hong Kong need to contain the campaign for democracy without the tools employed on the mainland to suppress dissent, including sweeping powers of arrest, indefinite detention, compliant courts and a controlled media.

China - NBS manufacturing PMI unchanged in September – Danske Bank
Economists React: Weak Domestic Demand Still Hurting ChinaWSJ

5 Takeaways From BOJ Tankan Survey – WSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Does Bernanke Deserve a Nobel Prize? * Fed Repo Facility Fails to Defend Short-Term Rate Floor * Powell Says Fed Should Shun Direct Treasury Ties * Eurozone Manufacturing Disappoints * BOJ Tankan: Japan Corporate Sentiment Improves

Daily MacroWSJ
A mixed bag of data from around the world, including purchasing manager surveys from Europe and Asia,  shows that economies are not collapsing but neither are they driving strongly forward. At best the global economy outside of the U.S. appears to be treading water. In this overall state of torpor, the default response among currency traders appears to be to continue buying the dollar, with trade-weighted indexes for the greenback marking their strongest quarterly gain Tuesday since 2008 and the dollar crossing above Y110 Wednesday for the first time since the financial crisis of that year.

Poor News There Pushes Dollar Higher HereMarc to Market

Commodities UpdateDanske Bank
Brent plunges - we maintain 2015 forecast at USD98/bbl

Is Canada’s Truly Magnificent Housing Bubble Next?Wolf Street

The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2014 YTDZH

Ikuinen euroSampo Terho
Eläkeuudistus ja kestävyysvaje, onko ongelmat nyt ratkaistu?Heikki Koskenkylä / Libera

Venäjä: uhka vai mahdollisuus?Suomen Perusta
Suomen Perusta -ajatuspajan kirjassa tarkastellaan Venäjää sekä merkittävänä kauppakumppanina että mahdollisena turvallisuuspoliittisena uhkana.

Veikö kissa Suomen linjan?Arto Luukkanen / US

Lama-Suomen ministeri haukkuu Alexander Stubbin: ”Käsittämätöntä mielistelyä”US

Katainen putosi komission varapuheenjohtajiston hännilleYLE
Financial Times -lehdelle vuodetun asiakirjan mukaan Suomen Jyrki Katainen on komission johdossa vasta seitsemäs ja varapuheenjohtajista viimeinen.

Taas synkkä luku Euroopan taloudesta: sisämaan rahti -11,7% - TE