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Wednesday, October 8

8th Oct - IMF continues warnings, FOMC minutes

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Right-wing citizens in right-wing countries dislike the EU, but right-wing citizens in left-wing countries support European integrationEuropp / LSE

Pain From Putin’s Sanctions Deepens as Ruble to Auction SufferBB
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s policy makers are in damage-control mode to confront mounting economic pain from U.S. and European sanctions over Ukraine.

EU's incoming economic chief Moscovici ready to fine France if necessaryReuters
France's Pierre Moscovici, the EU commissioner-designate who will take charge of policing budget discipline in the euro zone, said he was ready to step up disciplinary action against Paris for not respecting its obligations under EU budget rules.

EU Commission unlikely to okay Italy's budget plan as it stands: sourceReuters
The European Commission is unlikely to accept Italy's multi-year budget plan because of Rome's intention to delay achieving a balanced budget in structural terms until 2017, a Commission source told Reuters on Wednesday.

Renzi's Italy is begging in Brussels, bowing to BerlinTradingFloor
Matteo Renzi became Italian PM on a wave of support for reform. Now, eight months later, questions are being asked as to what has he achieved. Spending is still growing and growth forecasts have been cut.

Italy’s Renzi Faces Key Vote on Making Firings EasierBB
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi faces a confidence vote today on his labor-market proposal that includes rules making it easier to fire workers and more difficult to challenge dismissals in court.

Europe’s leaders need to back shift on rules on public investmentFT
Mario Monti: More flexibility for countries is required to promote growth

Europe Sacrifices a Generation With 17-Year Unemployment ImpasseBB
Seventeen years after their first jobs summit European Union leaders are divided on how to create employment and a fifth of young people are still out of work.

“There’s no Reason to Panic” about German Miracle EconomyWolf Street
That these comparisons to January 2009 are suddenly cropping up is unnerving. Stocks are rolling over.

Merkel Eyes Measures to Ward Off Looming German RecessionBB
Merkel’s government is flirting with measures to stimulate growth, reviewing its options amid evidence that Europe’s largest economy risks plunging into recession.

Forging strategic plans without a crystal ball - the importance of target-based management within the German authorities, with the Bundesbank as a case studyBIS
Speech by Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the top-level meeting on "target-based management within the German authorities", Berlin, 29 September 2014.

Defining price stabilitymainly macro

Sep 2014 Credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and OTC derivatives markets (SESFOD)ECB

Constancio Sees $1.3 Trillion Limit for ECB Asset ProgramBB
European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said 1 trillion euros ($1.26 trillion) of asset-backed securities and covered bonds are eligible for the institution’s purchase program.

U.S. fiscal 2014 budget deficit falls to $486 billion, CBO says – Reuters
CBO Estimate: Budget Deficit declines to 2.8% of GDPCalculated Risk

Fed’s “Doomsday Book” Has Day In CourtWSJ
The “Doomsday Book” is essentially a private compilation of emergency measures that the Federal Reserve could take in the event of a financial crisis or other market-destabilizing event. The book has never been made public.

What to Watch for in the Feds September Meeting MinutesWSJ

China should watch its peripheryFT
China’s periphery is in revolt, from Hong Kong in the east to Xinjiang and Tibet in the west and south. Although this is not a co-ordinated revolutionary movement, it is the greatest challenge the Chinese Communist party has faced since the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s.

China’s Balancing ActProject Syndicate
China is now struggling with a dilemma common to all advanced credit booms: the longer the boom runs, the greater the danger of wasted investment, huge bad debts, and a major financial crisis. And, though China enjoys more room for maneuver than other countries facing similar credit booms, the risks remain serious.

A compelling case for Chinese monetary easingBruegel
A successful Chinese economy needs both structural reforms on the supply side, and a nimble monetary policy on the demand side

Central Banks DailyWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Dudley Elevates the Strong Dollar in the Fed’s Policy Outlook * Fed’s Dudley Says Economy Appears on Track for Mid-2015 Rate Hike * Bundesbank’s Weidmann Criticizes ECB’s Stimulus Measures * ECB Vice President Outlines Possible Asset Purchase Volumes * Dovish Swedish Central Bank Board Member to Leave

Macro DailyWSJ
The focus is on a weakening global economy. German industry data out earlier in the week suggest that its famous export engine is starting to sputter. The signals from China so far have been that Beijing is managing a controlled landing, though there’s plenty still that could go wrong. Meanwhile, the IMF issued some gloomy global forecasts yesterday, giving the eurozone a 40% chance of slipping into recession over the coming year. This bearish view is reinforced by Europe’s sovereign debt markets, with yields sliding to record lows. To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve’s latest asset purchase program is ending this month and investors are starting to wonder how soon rate hikes will start.

Will the FOMC Minutes End Dollar's Correction?Marc to Market

The IMF Fesses Up To Big Growth-Prediction Misses. Biggest of All: Brazil, IndiaWSJ

Global Financial Stability ReportIMF
A Report by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department on Market Developments and Issues

[video] Fall 2014 Global Financial Stability ReportIMF

IMF Survey: Policymakers Should Encourage Economic Risk Taking, Keep Financial Excess Under ControlIMF

The New Global ImbalanceiMFdirect
Too Much Financial Risk-Taking, Not Enough Economic-Risk Taking

IMF: Shadow Banks ‘Could Compromise Global Financial Stability’WSJ
The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report released Wednesday said so-called shadow banks that operate outside the tightly regulated banking system are providing credit at a time when many banks aren’t strong enough to do so.

IMF questions fitness of eurozone banksFT
Fund warns that lenders are still too weak to support a recovery

IMF policies in the next crisis – unsuitable with a high probabilityFT
It’s that time of year again for the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington – which means time for reflection on the fund’s attitude to changes in sovereign debt restructuring. Gabriel Sterne, Head of Global Macro Investor Relations at Oxford Economics, argues why it might be time for less procrastination, and more ‘forward guidance’…

Tavaroiden ulkomaankaupan ennakkotilasto elokuussa 2014Tulli
Vienti väheni kuusi prosenttia elokuussa, tuonnissa laskua seitsemän prosenttia

Maksuhäiriöisten henkilöiden määrä jatkaa kasvamistaSuomen Luottotieto
Kolmekymppisistä miehistä joka kuudennella maksuhäiriö