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Tuesday, October 7

7th Oct - IMF lowers outlook

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Closing Europe’s Strategy GapProject Syndicate
The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has been a hot topic of analysis for almost a year. But one question has largely escaped thorough examination: what Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine indicates about the EU’s foreign policy.

Exclusive: EU executive sees personal savings used to plug long-term financing gapReuters
The savings of the European Union's 500 million citizens could be used to fund long-term investments to boost the economy and help plug the gap left by banks since the financial crisis, an EU document says.

French finance minister says not in EU's powers to reject budget Reuters
Europe's executive arm does not have the authority to reject France's budget over missed deficit-cutting targets, French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said on Tuesday as he announced that no further spending cuts would be made next year.

Whose is Russia’s external debt?Bruegel
90% of the country’s external debt was attributable to banks and other (non-government) sectors

“Learning From Europe”, Paul Krugman lecture slidesPrinceton
Lecture slides, actual lecture here.

Credit Rating Reviews This Week; France, Portugal KeyWSJ

The ECB’s Faulty WeaponProject Syndicate
Daniel Gros: With inflation in the eurozone stubbornly remaining on a downward trajectory, pressure on the European Central Bank to do “something” to prevent outright deflation is growing. But, given the financial structure of eurozone countries, would the preferred "something" – quantitative easing – actually do the trick?

Q&A With German Bundesbank President Jens WeidmannWSJ
German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann discussed the ECB’s recent policies, reiterated his opposition to government bond buys, and warned against central banks coming under too much political pressure.

Bundesbank Blasts Draghi's QE, Fears "Monetary Policy Is Hostage To Politics"ZH
ECB's readiness to act again doesn't mean it should do so now: WeidmannReuters

German Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2009 in August – BB
German August industry output plunges most in five-and-a-half years – Reuters
Plunge in industrial production stokes German recession fears – FT
Data, IMF outlook point to German economy running out of steam – Reuters
Europe's Triple-Dip Recession: German Industrial Production Crashes – ZH

Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index Strengthens – BB
Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index – Calculated Risk
A few observations on the Fed's new LMCI – Danske Bank
Why the Fed does not publish the level of the LMCI index but only the change – Danske Bank
The Fed's Important New Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) – Forbes
How to test whether the LMI (LMCI) is a good indicator – Worthwhile

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.4% Year-over-year in August – Calculated Risk

BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged With Yen Near Six-Year LowBB
The Bank of Japan maintained its record stimulus as the yen traded near a six-year low and economists pushed back forecasts for further monetary easing.

BOJ's Kuroda pledges prolonged stimulus but signals no immediate actionReuters
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed his resolve to maintain massive stimulus for a prolonged period but shrugged off the need to expand it soon, remaining upbeat on the outlook despite signs the economy may be in a mild recession.

RBA Signals Aussie Drop Insufficient to Drive Growth TransitionBB
The Australian dollar’s 7 percent decline in the past month is insufficient to spur the nation’s transition to domestic drivers of growth, the central bank said today as it kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged.

More tail-risk from AsiaHumble Student
No, it's not Hong Kong, which is already in the headlines, but Korea.

Daily MacroWSJ
Data from around the world have come together Tuesday to remind investors that everywhere but the U.S. is in a rather glum state. The U.K., which had been one of the world’s top performers, showed signs of softening in its manufacturing sector, and Taiwan, whose booming electronics exports had offered hope for a pickup in global demand, saw weaker exports in that critical sector. Germany, meanwhile, continued to make a poor showing for its industrial sector. All of this serves to highlight the comparative strength of the U.S. and reaffirm the bets of those who have pushed the dollar higher for the past three months.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Schlesinger’s Take: BOJ’s Kuroda, Facing New Heat, Tempers Outlook, Maintains Policy — For Now * George Says Fed Should Move Toward Raising Rates * BOE Plans Additional Depositor Protection * Bundesbank Board Member Voices Criticism of ECB Moves to Boost Inflation * Irish Central Bank to Introduce Mortgage Debt Limits

Dollar Correction Continues Marc to Market

Wall Street Journal and Absolute Strategy Unveil New Economic IndexesWSJ
Global Economy and Labor Markets Show Improvements, Say New IndexesWSJ

Our essential trades for Q4Saxo Bank
Opportunities in a debt-ridden world

IMF recommends overhaul of sovereign bondsFT
The IMF has warned that the US court’s decision could make future sovereign debt restructurings more complicated. The Fund has made two major recommendations aimed at changing clauses within bond contracts, a move that financial institutions also back.

World Economic Outlook UpdateIMF
Global growth disappoints * Pace of recovery uneven and country-specific * Global growth at 3.3 percent in 2014 rising to 3.8 percent in 2015 * Legacies from crisis, low potential growth weigh on recovery * Increased downside risks to global growth, including financial and geopolitical

WEO Ch. 1: Recent developments, prospects and policy prioritiesIMF
WEO Ch. 2: Country and regional perspectivesIMF

 [video] IMF Says Uneven Global Growth Disappoints – IMF
IMF Cuts Global Growth Expectations, Still 30% Above Consensus – ZH
A tour of the world’s slowing economy, in five charts – WaPO
IMF getting it wrong again and again – FT
IMF Comedy: The Complete History Of The Growth "Forecasts" Since 2012 – ZH
The age of diminishing expectations – The Economist
IMF sees risk of new eurozone recession – FT
IMF Cuts Global Outlook as Risk of ‘Frothy’ Stocks Raised – BB

Global Housing Prices: It’s a Tale of Two WorldsWSJ
An index tracking global property prices in 50 countries shows prices haven’t much risen over the past five years, but new research from the International Monetary Fund shows how averages can be misleading.

The new world economy in four chartsFT
The China phenomenon is part of a wider expansion of emerging markets’ output relative to the advanced world.

Kommentti: Onko lentoemäntien tie Suomen tie - palkat alas?MTV

Lamatutkija Ylelle: Näin käy, jos palkkoja aletaan alentaaVerkkouutiset
90-luvun suurlamaan perehtynyt palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksen erikoistutkija Pekka Sauramo ei näe palkka-aleja hyvänä ratkaisuna.

Ruotsissa arvostellaan Suomen asuntolainojaTalSa

EU:n uusissa haasteissaBrysselin kone / YLE
Vieraana Olli Rehn

Raportointivelvoitteet kasvattavat EU:n vaikutusvaltaa työeläkevakuuttajiinTELA
Mikael Kronholm: Komission päätöksestä sisällyttää työeläkeala julkisyhteisöihin on ollut hyviä ja huonoja seurauksia. Työeläkealan näkökulmasta siitä on seurannut erityisesti viime vuosina myös aivan uudenlaisia uhkakuvia.

Huoli heräsi: Haluaako EU Suomen 170 miljardin euron aarteen näppiensä alle?TE

EU-suunnitelma: Eläkesäästöjä pitäisi käyttää entistä enemmän talouden elvyttämiseenTE