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Wednesday, October 29

29th Oct - Fed ends QE3

After all, the job of the market is to thieve and steal as much money as possible, from as many participants as possible, in as many occasions as possible. 
Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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France and Italy get preliminary approval of their budgetsOpen Europe
But it's not the end of the story

Bank of England’s Cunliffe Says Need to Raise Interest Rates Has RecededWSJ

Managing global finance as a system - speech by Andrew Haldane BOE
BOE’s Haldane to Boldly Go Where No Central Banker Has Gone BeforeWSJ
Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane dreams that regulators will one day be able to monitor the colossal ebb and flow of capital across the globe in real-time, “from a Star Trek chair using a bank of monitors,” and work out where problems are brewing, much as meteorologists pore over complex weather patterns to spot the germ of a hurricane.

Press release euro area bank lending survey ECB
Euro area bank lending survey Q3/2014ECB
Euro area loan demand continues to increaseDanske Bank
Bankers and borrowers disagree about European housingFT
Credit standards for all loan categories eased in net terms. A positive net loan demand continued to be reported.

Now that that’s over… - FT

AQR research pack (registration required) – Longroom FT
SocGen AQR & Stress tests in 10 slides – Time to move on
Deutsche Bank: All major banks pass, job done
Deutsche Bank: On to the test which matters more
Credit Suisse: A step in the right direction
Morgan Stanley: After the AQR – remain overweight banks
Danske Bank: Capital shortfall less than expected

Riksbank rate decision: fight for credibilityNordea
Message from the Riksbank largely in line with our expectations. The repo rate was cut to zero, slightly more than our forecast of 0.05%, and the interest rate path was revised sharply down. Supplementary measures such as QE and currency interventions were discussed only briefly in the Riksbank report and seem a long way off.

SEK: FX interventions next?Nordea
While the Riksbank delivered slightly more than expected in October, EUR/SEK around 9.35 seems quite fair for now. While the Riksbank is arguing that the situation in Sweden “differs” from that in other countries which launched unconventional measures, this is true only insofar the SEK is not as obviously overvalued as was the case with the CHF and the CZK. That said, for FX interventions to occur, we need big data disappointments as well as a stronger currency.

Riksbank cuts rates to zero and mulls currency war to fight deflationThe Telegraph
Sweden's central bank is having to pick its poison, choosing between deflation or an asset bubble

How Sweden Joined Central Banking’s Hall of ShameBB
European policy makers have been their own worst enemy in the fight to avoid recession and deflation.

Things To Watch in Thursday’s U.S. GDP Report WSJ
Tomorrow’s GDP numbers will give a better read on the U.S. economy WaPo

The Fed Favors Guidance Over Bond BuysWSJ
The Federal Reserve’s forward guidance has been a lot more effective at keeping long-term rates down and stimulating the economy than its three bond-buying programs

Print Less but Transfer MoreForeign Affairs
Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People

QE central bankers deserve a medal for saving societyThe Telegraph
Let us give due credit to the heroes of our time - Ben Bernanke and Mervyn King - because the economic alternative would have been much worse

Parsing the Fed: How the Statement Changed – WSJ
End of QE3 Means Fed Statement Finally Shrinks – WSJ
Economists React to the Fed Statement: ‘Surprisingly Hawkish’ – WSJ
Fed Signals Fiscal Policy No Longer Seen as Drag on U.S. Economy – WSJ
Highlights from the FOMC statement, 29 October 2014FT
Hilsenrath Warns Mid-2015 Rate Hike Possibility – ZH
Sell-Side Responses "This Should Be A Risk Off Trade" – ZH
End of an Era: Fed Concludes QE; Stocks Fall – WSJ
Fed ends bond-buying, leaves guidance on rates unchanged – WaPo
Fed ends bond buying, shows confidence in U.S. recovery – Reuters
Fed Cites Job Market Gains as It Ends Asset Purchases – BB

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Critics Have Been Wrong About QE’s Most Ill Effects * Fed Set to End QE3, but Not the QE Tool * The Fed’s October Meeting – At A Glance * Bank of England’s Cunliffe Says Need to Raise Interest Rates Has Receded * BOJ Chief Takes Heat as Skepticism Over Abenomics Grows

Daily MacroWSJ
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s announcement later Wednesday, but don’t expect too much of a surprise. With stock markets having all but fully recovered from the gut-wrenching losses of earlier this month – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, incredibly, is now only 1.6% below its record high – and with economic indicators in the rest of the world showing signs of stabilizing, the Fed has no need to hold back on an end to its quantitative easing program.

Dollar Narrowly Mixed as Fed AwaitedMarc to Market

Focus on Fed, but New Inputs for BOJ and ECBMarc to Market

Tarkastusviraston pääjohtaja: Taloudessa on vakava kansallinen hätätila SK
Tuomas Pöysti arvostelee Kanava-lehdessä hallitusta vitkastelusta rakennepoliittisissa uudistuksissa.

Teollisuudelta mustia lukuja – laivatilaukset tuovat vähän valoa Verkkouutiset

Markkinatilanne jatkuu epävarmanaTeknologiateollisuus
Teknologiateollisuuden tilaukset kasvoivat heinä-syyskuussa. Kasvun takana ovat yksittäiset, arvoltaan suuret tilaukset. Pk-yritysten olisi kyettävä lisäämään suoraa vientiään.

Tilanne ja näkymät 4/2014Teknologiateollisuus
Graafit pptx, pdf

Puolueiden imagotutkimus: Kokoomus entistäkin ylimielisempiYLE
Kokoomuksen julkinen kuva on ylimielisempi kuin kertaakaan 2000-luvulla, kertoo Yle Uutisten käsiinsä saama puolueiden yhteinen imagotutkimus.

Ylen selvitys: Porvarihallitusta pukkaa YLE
Yle Uutiset on haastatellut poliittisia johtajia, ja laatinut vaihtoehtoisia hallituskuvioita. Vain hurja vaalivoitto nostaisi demarit hallitukseen. Keskustelujen pohjalta muotoiltiin 30 mahdollista hallitusohjelman kirjausta.
Tuloja entistä vaikeampi pimittää ulkomailleVerkkouutiset
Suomi sitoutuu automaattiseen verotietojen vaihtoon lähes 50 valtion kanssa.

Finanssipolitiikan säännöistäAkateeminen talousblogi
Pertti Haaparanta: Sveitsin velkajarru on yksi esimerkki finanssipolitiikan säännöistä, melko huono (ei huonoin) sellainen. Mutta mitkä ovat hyviä sääntöjä?

Suurpankkien stressitestit taas talousteatteriaJan Hurri / TalSa
Euroalueen suurpankkien stressitestit olivat aiemmin silkkaa talousfarssia. EKP on juuri saanut päätökseen entistä perusteellisemmat ja entistä vakavammat pankkitestit. Ehkä ne eivät olleet enää farssia, mutta talousteatteria kuitenkin. EKP:n asema esti aidosti riippumattoman ja ankaran riskianalyysin.

”Viidennes Euroopan pankeista maksukyvyttömyysuhan alla”PS

Ranskan ja Italian budjettiesitykset kelpasivat komissiollePS

Kun asuntomarkkinoilla viimeksi kävi näin, edessä oli romahdus – TE
Myyjät antoivat periksi: Asunnoissa on nyt ostajan markkinat – HS
Tausta: Työttömyys ja korot vaikuttavat hintoihin – HS
Taantuma syventää omakotitalo-omistajan ahdinkoa – YLE