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Sunday, October 26

26th Oct - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Flash Eurobarometer October 2014Europa

Why Europe is doomed, in 3 paragraphsWaPo

The euro zone: The world’s biggest economic problem The Economist
Deflation in the euro zone is all too close and extremely dangerous

Europe's fiscal wormholeBruegel
With all of the rules pointing toward recession, how can Europe boost recovery?

The euro crisis: Back to realityThe Economist
The debt of some euro-zone economies looks unsustainable

Draghi: Euro zone risks 'relapse into recession' without structural reformsReuters

Merkel Hints That Euro-Area Nations May Have Room for InvestmentBB

Soros: Wake Up,
Europe is facing a challenge from Russia to its very existence. Neither the European leaders nor their citizens are fully aware of this challenge or know how best to deal with it.

The Mother of all Jobs in the EUWolf Street
Ironically, the more Eurocrats try to integrate the EU through imposition of fiscal, monetary, banking, and political straitjackets, the closer the Union comes to disintegration.

'Poets and Alchemists' Berlin and Paris Undermine Euro StabilitySpiegel
Market uncertainty over the future of the euro has returned, but that hasn't stopped France from flouting European Union deficit rules. Berlin is already busy hashing out a dubious compromise.

Charlemagne: Gummed upThe Economist
Europe’s leaders need to rediscover the resolve they showed during the euro crisis

When will the SNB end FX intervention and start raising rates?FT
According to Goldman, the answer is sooner than the market thinks. A new note argues that the Swiss franc is already overvalued against the euro, which should give the Swiss National Bank cover to raise rates in response to a vibrant domestic economy and an overheating housing market.

[May 27, 2012] The Eurozone Crisis For DummiesBI

Euro area: Handling the stress (test results)Nordea
The long-awaited ECB/EBA stress test results will finally be released on Sunday at 12:00 CET. The results are bound to include failures, but their scope and scale should not cause another shock to markets.

EU Banking Stress Tests 'Far-Reaching Reforms Are Needed'Spiegel
On Sunday, Europe will release the results of its banking stress tests. In an interview, former PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian speaks with SPIEGEL about what to expect and how Europe's core countries are failing to adequately confront a flagging economy.

ECB Set to Fail 25 Banks in Review, Draft Document ShowsBB
Twenty-five lenders in the European Central Bank’s euro-area bank health check are set to fail the regulator’s Comprehensive Assessment, according to a draft communique of the final results, seen by Bloomberg News.

Testing Europe’s Stress TestsBloomberg View
Europe’s banks might actually be more than $600 billion short of the capital they would need in a severe crisis.

Crucial ECB stress test likely to snare 25 lendersFT
About 25 banks are expected to fail the ECB’s landmark health checks, although many of those have already taken sufficient action this year to strengthen their finances, said two people familiar with the process.

ECB Stress Test a Lose-Lose Scenario: Morilla-GinerBB

Merrill Lynch: FOMC PreviewCalculated Risk
Goldman Sachs: FOMC PreviewCalculated Risk

Specter of no-inflation world looms over Fed's return to normalReuters
After months of focus on slack in U.S. labor markets, the Federal Reserve faces a new challenge: the possibility that weak inflation may be so firmly entrenched it upends the return to normal monetary policy.

The U.S. Housing Market in 10 ChartsWSJ
Looking back against 2011, when prices and sales hit bottom, the market is clearly improved. Compared with last year, the pace of sales gains have slowed, but they’re not getting dramatically worse, either. Prices are up around 5%, slower than the year before but enough to quiet fears of a new bubble. Sales are flat to down.

China’s future growth: Even dragons tire – The Economist
China’s slowdown is secular, not cyclical – FT
Realising China’s sustainable growth rate – FT
The journey from luxury to thrift will test Beijing’s mettle – FT
China starts its painful shift to the new normal – FT
What the Heck Happened To Macau? – Wolf Street

Financial hurricanesCoppola Comment
Cross-border leveraging flow systems of the kind I have illustrated above are the storms and hurricanes of the financial system. We ignore them at our peril.

The Zombie System: How Capitalism Has Gone Off the RailsSpiegel
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself?

Briefing: The dangers of deflationThe Economist
Politicians and central bankers are not providing the world with the inflation it needs; some economies face damaging deflation instead

On The Coming Collapse Of CopperZH

A New Macroeconomic StrategyProject Syndicate
Both neo-Keynesians and supply-siders have tried and failed to overcome the high-income economies’ persistently weak performance in recent years. It is time for a new approach, one based on sustainable, investment-led growth.

Information in Financial Markets: Who Gets It First?SSRN
Hedge fund trading anticipates analyst information, while mutual fund trading does not. Specifically, hedge fund net buying predicts more analyst upgrade reports in the next quarter, and predicts fewer downgrade reports. Secondly, I find hedge funds and mutual funds respond differently to analyst information: in the quarter following analyst reports hedge funds “defy” analyst recommendations, while mutual follow the analysts. Finally, I find hedge funds perform best among stocks with highest research coverage and institutional ownership. I relate these findings to information acquisition theory in settings where investors acquire information at different times.

Helicopter moneymainly macro
Periodically articles appear advocating, or discussing, helicopter money. Here is a simple guide to this strange sounding concept. I go in descending order of importance, covering the essential ground in points 1-7, and dealing with more esoteric matters after that.

Germany vs. China: Seeing Both Sides of EurasiaEconMatters
George Friedman: Germany and China are dealing with the fact that their customers' appetites for goods are declining -- whether because of price competition or because of economic decline… As a result of the crisis, the portion of China's GDP tied to exports collapsed almost overnight, from 38 percent in 2007 to just under 24 percent now. This collapse has forced Beijing to keep the economy on life support through massive expansion of state-led investment into housing and infrastructure construction. The housing boom is showing signs of having finally run its course.

The Moral Economy of DebtProject Syndicate
Every economic collapse brings a demand for debt forgiveness. The incomes needed to repay loans have evaporated, and assets posted as collateral have lost value. Creditors demand their pound of flesh; debtors clamor for relief.

Monetary policy: Breaking the rulesThe Economist
As unpleasant as global economic conditions look just now we can at least be thankful that things aren't anywhere near as bad as they were in 2009, to say nothing of 1931. Neither are those sorts of nasty scenarios a risk.

Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future?
To work towards resolving Europe’s ongoing debt crisis this column looks to the past. From the recent emerging market debt crisis (1980s-2000s) and the interwar episode of the 1920s-1930s we learn that debt write-downs and defaults are able to be postponed but not prevented. Punishment for default is temporary, sometimes followed by a renewed surge in borrowing that leads to another crisis.

Wrinkles in spacetimeWired
How Building a Black Hole for Interstellar Led to an Amazing Scientific Discovery

The Laborers Who Keep Dick Pics and Beheadings Out of Your Facebook FeedWired

Amazon is doing the world a favor by crushing book
The industry is right that Jeff Bezos is destroying them. But he’s not doing it by abusing monopoly power. They’re weak because they’re not doing anything useful. People who care about literature and ideas will be better off without them.

Why Was the NSA Chief Playing the Market?Foreign Policy
Newly released documents show the NSA chief was investing his money in commodities so obscure that most financial pros stay away.

You & Your Wall Street Boyfriend (24 Hours)
If you had a drone with a camera, this is what you’d see your Wall Street boyfriend doing.

America is Becoming Less ReligiousPriceonomics

Zombie Ideas That Keep on LosingView / BB

Use Google Sheets for Multilingual Chat with Speakers of Different LanguagesLabnol

Saksa sai Ranskasta hyviä neuvojaJussi Tuormaa / TalSa
Saksan asemaa Euroopan vahvana talousmaana ei ole näyttänyt horjuttavan mikään muu kuin se itse.

Onko Suomessa finanssipolitiikka elvyttävää?Roger Wessman
Vuosina 2008-2009 finanssipolitiikka oli selkeästi elvyttävää... Vuonna 2009 tämän mukaan vajaa puolet elvytyksestä oli aktiivista...Erityisesti veronkiristysten kautta aktiivinen finanssipolitiikka on viime vuosina ollut pääsääntöisesti lievästi talouskasvua jarruttava (taantumaa syventävä)...Aivan toinen kysymys on siten missä määrin Suomen talouden ongelmia voitaisiin ratkoa finanssipolitiisisella elvytyksellä. Ongelmana on, että se tie on umpikuja jos se johtaa maata kestämättömään velkakierteeseen.

EKP toistaa muinaisen Rooman pankkivirheitäJan Hurri / TalSa
Analyysi Euroalueen keskuspankki EKP toistaa samoja virheitä, joilla muinaisen Rooman keisari Tiberius ensin sysäsi alulle ja myöhemmin pahensi Euroopan tiettävästi ensimmäisen "nykyaikaisen" finanssikriisin. Tiberius tosin paikkasi virheensä, mutta EKP yhä jatkaa omiaan.

Keskustan Juha Sipilä: Edessä menojen jäädytysTE
Sipilä karsisi kymmeniätuhansia virkamiehiäMTV