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Thursday, October 9

9th Oct - Nervous markets, European reforms

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Governments must avoid scapegoating public sector for problemsEuropp / LSE
Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK – little evidence to suggest that the failure to modernise the public sector in these countries was a key driver in the economic problems caused by the crisis.

‘Euroglut’ of gloom as Germany weakensFT
Concern that eurozone could become a destabilising global force
Renzi victory as Senate backs reformsFT
Italy’s upper house approves new measures to boost employment

Au Revoir to France’s Welfare Model as Socialists Cut SpendingBB
Hollande in Lobbies’ Grip Has Abandoned Socialism, Batho Says – BB
Hollande Falls Into Line as Merkel Fends Off EU SpendingBB

German model is ruinous for Germany, and deadly for EuropeThe Telegraph
Ambrose-Evans Pritchard: France may look like the sick man of Europe, but Germany’s woes run deeper, rooted in mercantilist dogma

Germany is killing its economy – and Europe’s, tooWaPo

Eastern German State Elections: Advantage for CDU and populist AfDDB Research

German exports plunge by largest amount in five-and-a-half years – Reuters
German Exports Slide Most Since 2009 as Economy Stumbles – BB

Mario Draghi’s secret plan to lower the euroTradingFloor
Germany's Angela Merket is reluctant to give in to pressure to boost spending * Draghi's update on the ECB asset buying plan had little impact on the markets * The short-term outlook for the EURUSD is positive

Draghi Policies Blunted in Berlin as German Protests GrowBB
Draghi has stopped short of large-scale sovereign-bond purchases as efforts to mollify Germany’s political elite do little to silence criticism of his ever-more expansionary measures.

European Inflation Expectations Collapse To New Record LowsZH

Mario Draghi: Recovery and Reform in the euro areaECB
Draghi flips KeynesFT  
Draghi vows to fight eurozone deflation – FT
ECB's Draghi says expects lending to pick up soon in 2015 – Reuters

Monthly Bulletin, October 2014ECB
The impact of the economic crisis on euro area labour marketsECB
The assessment of fiscal effortECB

The Federal Deficit is Now Smaller than the Average Since the 1980sWSJ

Tapering is tightening?FT
A funny thing has happened since the Federal Reserve announced it would begin cutting back on its bond-buying on Dec 2013: the yield curve has flattened like a pancake.

QE Has (Nearly) Ended. But How Will The Fed Unwind It?Forbes
The unwinding of QE will take a very long time, possibly decades. By the time it is fully unwound, it may be that financial institutions – both banks and non-banks – will have gotten used to IOER, overnight reverse repos and other forms of “unconventional” monetary management. I suspect that IOER and the associated tools are here to stay. “Normal” will never be quite the same again.

Fed Leery Guidance Changes Might Be Misread – WSJ
Fed Officials to Be Flexible on How They Raise Rates – WSJ
FOMC Talks Down Dollar, Fears Growth Slowdown, "Considerable Time" Misunderstood – ZH
Hilsenrath Confirms Dovish Fed Talking Down The Dollar – ZH
Panic Buying Ensues After FOMC Minutes Unleash Weaker Dollar – ZH
Wall Street is nervous Fed will mess up the tightening – FT
Fed Minutes Takeaway: Bad News Is Still Good News – WSJ
The Fed’s Housing Dilemma – WSJ
"Costs of downside shocks larger than those of upside shocks" – Calculated Risk
The Fed minutes: We read them so you don’t have to! – WaPo
The Fed needs to learn from its successes in the 1990s – WaPo
Quick Thoughts on FOMC Minutes and the DollarMarc to Market
Liftoff expectations shift to a year from nowSober Look
The Fed notices the dollarMacro Man
U.S. Fed frets over strong dollar, global woes – Reuters

Kuroda Says Many Options Available for Any Increased EasingBB
The Bank of Japan has “many options” for additional easing, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, emphasizing that the bank would adjust its policy if needed to reach its 2 percent inflation target.

Daily Macro WSJ
As finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the Group of 20, they are confronted by the harsh reality of a global economy that refuses to accelerate growth.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Look Out for Falling U.S. Inflation Expectations * Fed Minutes Show Concern About Weak Overseas Growth, Strong Dollar * Fed Head of Monetary Affairs English to Take on New Role as Adviser * New York Fed Needed a Culture Change, Columbia Professor Says * BOJ’s Kuroda ‘Convinced’ 2% Inflation Will Benefit Japan

EMEA Weekly, Week 42Danske Bank

Are Growth Concerns Really the Driver? Also a note on BreadthGlobal Macro Trading

Looking At Global Stock MarketsThe Short Side of Long

Economic Forecasting Survey – WSJ
International Drag Could Be Geopolitical Shock or Growth Slowdown - WSJ
Economists Downgrade Their Inflation Outlook – WSJ
Most Economists Confident in Fed’s Exit Tools – WSJ

IMF Survey: World Economy Needs Smart Fiscal Policies – IMF
IMF Research Bulletin -- September 2014 – IMF
IMF Fiscal Monitor -- Back To Work: How Fiscal Policy Can Help, October 2014 – IMF
IMF Video:Press Briefing: Global Financial Stability Report – IMF
Just how bad is IMF forecasting? – Asia redux? – The Economist
Depreciating currencies and EM inflation: watch out – FT

Euro heikentynyt, muttei riittävästiNordea
Pääekonomisti Aki Kangasharju peräänkuuluttaa euroalueelle sen kipeästi tarvitsemaa tuottavuuden kasvua sekä heikompaa euroa.

Stubbin kolumni: Toiveiden kaivosta punnittuihin valintoihinKokoomus

Velkajarru väärä lääkeRoger Wessman