Google Analytics

Monday, November 17

17th Nov - Japan's Q3 GDP terrible

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Soon, there won’t be a Europe to be part ofThe Telegraph
It’s not a question of in or out, but of whether Britain can avoid the flames of destruction

"Debt Trap" Nonsense; Eurosceptics on Rise; Demise of the EU: "Soon There Won't be a Europe" Says TelegraphMish’s

Europe cannot afford to dance around debtFT
No country can run huge surpluses without inciting taxpayer revolt, says Barry Eichengreen

The wacky economics of Germany’s parallel universeFT
Wolfgang Münchau: The Council of Economic Experts says nothing about investment. It wants Merkel to be tougher

The nuclear gun is back on the tableFT
Gideon Rachman: Both in private and in public, Russia is making explicit references to its nuclear arsenal

Easing… quantitative easing – ECB versionFT

ECB Says May Buy Gold, Stocks Next, Admits "Not Sure If Japan's QE Has Worked"ZH

Draghi Seen Bypassing QE Qualms to Hit Balance-Sheet GoalBB
Mario Draghi will succeed in boosting the European Central Bank’s balance sheet back toward 3 trillion euros ($3.75 trillion), though he’ll have to override some policy makers’ qualms on quantitative easing to do so.

Praet: Repairing the bank lending channel: the next stepsECB

Draghi: Introductory remarks at the EP’s Economic and Monetary Affairs CommitteeECB

Draghi Lists New Year Resolutions to Aid ECB Monetary StimulusBB
Mario Draghi presented European lawmakers with a list of policy resolutions for 2015 as he insisted his institution alone can’t fix the region’s economy.

Draghi repeats “whatever it takes”, ECB buys only EUR3bn in weekZH

ECB members strengthening easing biasDanske Bank

A Snag in the Plan to Help the Eurozone GrowWSJ

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €18.5 bn – Eurostat

SF Fed Paper Warns Fed May Not Hit Price Target Until After 2016WSJ
Long-term Unemployment a Sign of Slack, NY Fed Economists SayWSJ
Capital Controls May Make Economic Sense, Minneapolis Fed Paper SaysWSJ

Industrial Production Drops – ZH
Industrial Output in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell in October – BB

Five Takeaways on Japan’s GDP Numbers – WSJ
Japan Q3 GDP shrinks, Abe likely to delay tax hike – Reuters
Japan's slip into surprise recession paves way for tax delay, snap poll – Reuters
Japan GDP Signals Companies Mismanaged Sales-Tax Increase Again – BB
Japan slips into recession – Reuters
Japan Seeks to Strengthen 2015 Growth After Recession Hit – BB
Key Points to Take Away From Japan’s Slide Into Recession – BB
Japan’s economy in seven charts – FT
Japan’s Sensible Fiscal Retreat – Macro and Markets
Abenomics’ route uncertain on GDP shock – FT
Japan’s “debt problem” in perspective – FT

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Schlesinger’s Take: Will Bank of Japan Need Still More Stimulus? * Japan Falls Into Recession * Fed’s Bullard Still Wants Fed Rate Rise in Late First Quarter 2015 * ECB’s Mersch Talks Down Imminent Purchases of Sovereign Bonds * BOE’s Carney Says Financial Reform Remains Work in Progress

Daily MacroWSJ
The unexpected news that Japan dropped into recession in the second quarter has grabbed investors’ attention Monday, mostly because of the extreme reaction seen in Japanese markets. Not only did Japanese stocks predictably fall but (rather less predictably) the yen rose. That could be because of automatic responses based on the strong correlation seen until now between the rising stock market and a falling yen; it could reflect speculation that the GDP result will render Abenomics’ a failure and so put an end to the yen-weakening policies of the Bank of Japan; or it could simply be that the Japanese currency was due for an upward correction.

Japan Shocks, BOE Warns, Europe PreparesMarc to Market

FI Eye-Opener: Hoping for better daysNordea
Bonds with another rally on Friday – more gains in sight. Fitch changes Belgian rating outlook to negative. Japan back in recession. G20 with growth hopes – Russian crisis receives a lot of focus. US retail sales with a big bounce. Euro area able to show some growth. Euro-area PMIs, Fed minutes and US CPI ahead – Draghi to speak today. Belgian, Spanish and French supply ahead.

From the floor: Japan's dismal data dayTradingFloor
The big news today is Japan's huge GDP shortfall, which has investors across asset classes retreating from all things Japan and wondering how the Bank of Japan is planning to react in terms of stimulus. Elsewhere, stubbornly low oil prices have brought volatility to the energy sector, but could also provide a sustained boost in consumer staples equities.

2020 vision: Where will bond yields head next?Nordea
Forecasts claiming that “bond yields will rise” have been wrong in most of recent years. We look into the drivers of low rates and offer three scenarios about the longer-term future developments (with a horizon of, say, 2020). We also look at rates under an ECB QE scenario as well as the drivers of ultra-long rates.

Strategy Sweden: On the radarNordea
Sweden: amortization requirements, as we know it * SEK rate vol: end of year is not end of history * SEK linkers: break-even inflation low in relation to SEK * EUR rates: peculiar patterns in the repo market * EUR rates: 10s dipping a toe below 1% * FX vol: EURCHF for the gutsy

Here Is Your "Global Recovery" In 24 ChartsZH
Changes in 2014 and 2015 EPS forecasts by country

Tästä Euroopalle taantuman tappajia | Japanin BKT selvästi odotettua heikompi | Euroalueen BKT hieman odotuksia parempi

Anders Borg mukana 1.12Roger Wessman
Anders Borg  vahvisti, että hän osallistuu keskusteluun Suomen talouden mahdollisuuksista seminaarissamme 1.12. Vielä ehtii ilmoittautua.

Mitä talouskasvu on ja mistä se tulee? (RH I)Harhala

Soini: EU-jäsenmaksu tuplaantuu, vaikutusvaltaa puolet vähemmänPS

Saarakkala: Euro-eron oltava yhä vaihtoehtoPS

Hallitukseen vauhtia 90-luvun lamaopeinYLE
Politiikan konkarit haukkuivat nykyhallitusten päätöksenteon maan rakoon viikonloppuna. Näin tekivät presidentti Sauli Niinistö lehtihaastattelussa ja lamavuosien pääministeri Esko Aho lauantain TV 1:n Ykkösaamussa. Aikalaisten mukaan Ahon hallitus jyräsi päätöksiä pienessä piirissä kirosanojen voimalla.