Google Analytics

Monday, November 24

24th Nov - Week of unthankfulness begins

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Countdown to missed opportunity for EU economyReuters
When European Union leaders meet on Dec. 18-19 under new management, they have a chance to launch a joint assault on the economic stagnation and high unemployment that are fuelling disenchantment and anti-EU protest among voters. All the signs are they are set to fall short.

The Japanization Of Europe In 9 "Different This Time" ChartsZH
Regional elections deliver Renzi warningFT
Turnout slumps across Italy but support for Northern League surges

Spanish polls show Podemos surge is no aberrationFT

Stripping Neighbors of Money Pressure Mounts for EU Crackdown on Tax HavensSpiegel
Corporations pay low taxes in Luxembourg. As prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker carried partial blame for this policy. Politicians in Brussels have maneuvered to save him from the scandal, but the case has cast light on Europe's tax-dumping problem.

It is time for the west and Ukraine to offer Putin a dealFT
Ukraine will never succeed with a hostile Russia on its borders

ECB's Nowotny hails EU stimulus plan as growth boosterReuters

Measuring Europe’s investment problemBruegel

How the EU Plans to Turn $26 Billion Into $390 BillionBB
The European Union is planning a 21 billion-euro ($26 billion) fund to share the risks of new projects with private investors, two EU officials said.

Radical left is right about Europe’s debtFT
Wolfgang Munchau: It is logically inconsistent for the eurozone to enter secular stagnation and not restructure

Germany's Economy: Is the Crown Slipping?BBC
Germany's economy is teetering on the brink of a new recession - we ask what is Berlin's plan to turn things around and will it do anything to help the rest of the Eurozone? Ed Butler speaks to the German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter and discusses the issues with Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research; Philippe Legrain, a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics' European Institute, and Christian Schulz, senior economist at the German bank, Berenberg.

Europe’s German Ball and ChainProject Syndicate
Daniel Gros: In 2012, when a financial storm engulfed the eurozone, it was Germany that kept the European ship off the shoals of financial disaster. But now Europe’s anchor has become a brake, hindering forward movement.

The Quiet GermanThe New Yorker
The astonishing rise of Angela Merkel, the most powerful woman in the world.

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises – CESIfo
German IFO expectations increased for first time since April – Danske Bank
Ifo rises but still indicates only slow growth – Nordea
German business morale rebounds in November – Reuters

European Banks May be Harder to Bail In than the ECB Thinksnaked capitalism

Draghi's prospects for fixing Eurozone in doubtTradingFloor
Mario Draghi has sent a strong signal that the ECB is ready to expand its stimulus programme, to revive the flagging Eurozone economies. The plan is to boost asset purchases, thereby increasing the money flowing in the economy. This has raised hopes the ECB will acquire large amounts of government bonds. But this would reduce yields, and with it the prospect of reform.

Opinion: Why Draghi is pushing the euro lowerMarketWatch
You have been warned — the euro, like the yen, is heading lower.

Euro zone private loan data still looking more like groan dataReuters
It’s been more than two years since euro zone banks increased net lending to private businesses. And it’s been nearly half a year since the European Central Bank launched a new plan to turn that situation around. Everyone is still waiting for results.

Draghi Urgency for ECB Action Gets Final Reality Check With DataBB
Economists from Credit Suisse Group AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Draghi’s Nov. 21 comments indicate the ECB will buy sovereign debt.

Jens Weidmann: Towards a more prosperous monetary unionBIS
Speech by Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, at the Asociación de Mercados Financieros Annual Financial Convention, Madrid, 24 November 2014.

ECB’s Weidmann: Monetary Policy Alone Can’t Create GrowthWSJ
Weidmann Sees High Legal Hurdles for Sovereign QEBB
Weidmann warns of "legal limits" on further moves by ECBReuters

ECB Nowotny: Wait to See Effect of Policy Measures Before Undertaking New OnesWSJ

The Fed concerned about "importing" disinflationSober Look

Weakest rise in service sector business activity since April – Markit
U.S. services sector activity grows, November rate slows: Markit – Reuters
Service PMI Misses, Tumbles To 7-Month Lows – ZH

China blinks as economic downturn deepensThe Telegraph
"China is not safe until they put the credit genie back in the bottle but that is going to be very difficult to do,” warns UBS

Stimulus With Chinese CharacteristicsView / BB
The rate cut draws attention to a genuinely difficult problem for the global economy: what to do about China's fading and unbalanced expansion.

Signal vs noise from the PBoCFT
SocGen’s Wei Yao: “due to the further rate liberalisation announced at the same time, there is actually no de facto rate cut.”

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: A PBOC Reporter Points to Threats for World #2 Economy * What Big Economies Got Right, or Wrong, After Crisis * Central Banks Move Again to Boost Global Economy * Dudley Denies ‘Serious Problems’ in Fed’s Regulation * ECB’s Nowotny Says No Rush for New Measures

Daily MacroWSJ
Stock markets are well and truly back in an all-news-is-good news mood. On Friday, they rallied on signs of more economic stimulus, boosted by a rate cut in China and then by signals from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that he would seek to provide more monetary stimulus to the struggling eurozone economy. Monday has begun with more gains in Asia, which is playing catch-up to the Chinese after-the-bell news on Friday, and then more again in Europe as German business sentiment data showed a surprise gain.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea MorningNordea

FI Eye-Opener: Whatever it takes and fastNordea
German 10-year yield falls back below 0.80% – more room on the downside in the near term. Intra-Euro-area spreads narrow. European equities surge higher. Draghi emphasizes the need for quick action. Rate cuts reach China. German Ifo and Euro-area inflation ahead. Plenty of issuance activity.

Germany Surprises, Helps Euro Tick UpMarc to Market

FX: US' 'best interests' reduxNordea
The 4% stronger USD this year, impact on inflation - is it enough to worry Fed? Maybe not yet. But... what else?

From the floor: Draghi provides a liftTradingFloor
Though markets continue to bask in the glow of Mario Draghi's dovish comments on Friday as well as China'sd surprise rate cut we could be in for a pretty subdued week given that today is a national holiday in Japan and the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday.

The Macro Week Ahead: China rate cut puts Asia back into focusTradingFloor
Expect everything Australian to rally this week from the AUD to the beaten down equities, also we are particularly bullish on Chinese and Hong Kong-listed real estate and bank names. Meanwhile with the USDJPY, all eyes on 120 and upside. Likely to be consolidation and/or pullback before next surge up.

Daily Shot: Draghi needs to pull another rabbit out of his hatTradingFloor
One country not facing major economic headwinds: New Zealand  * US takes on Saudi Arabia as top oil producer * Why global low growth and deflation risks may last for decades

Bailouts, bail-ins and the banks: why we can’t afford another financial crisisThe Guardian
Governments are not flush enough to contemplate a second wave of bailouts, which leaves the problem of too ‘big to fail’ unsolved

On the hypothetical eventuality of no more petrodollarsFT
According to Citi’s credit team, it would likely affect things a lot. Especially so in the credit markets. Though, what’s really interesting … they believe the effects of a petrodollar shortage may already be showing up in credit markets.

Instability risk looms large despite G20 hopesFT
Regulatory-driven reduction in market liquidity is risk for real economy

Lies, damned lies, and liquidity expectationsFT
Consider this yet another warning to asset managers of the “those of you who don’t adjust your liquidity expectations and reprice liquidity pronto, may soon encounter huge problems we regulators will not be prepared to fix.”

What Big Economies Got Right, or Wrong, After CrisisWSJ
Why the U.S. and U.K. Have Fared Better Than Japan and Europe

World Economy Worst in Two Years, Europe Darkening, Deflation LurkingBB
The world economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area and emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.

Fed Now Expected To Move Ahead Of The BoEAlpha Now
Changing sentiment about who would move first and by how much has driven changes in the £ / US$ exchange rate.

Commodities Forecast Update Danske Bank
Recovery in 2015, stabilising in 2016

OPEC meeting – a real thriller for a changeNordea
Thursday is going to be the most interesting and nerve-racking day for a long time in the oil market. The OPEC cartel, accounting for around 40% of the global oil supply, will have its 166th meeting in Vienna, Austria, and the members for sure have some difficult tasks to solve. We expect OPEC to cut its production quota to 29-29.5mb/d from 30mb/d, reflecting/indicating a production cut of around 1-1.5mb/d.

Strategy Research Sweden: On the radarNordea
Sweden: Don´t be surprised if GDP surprises * SEK front-end: Japanized, with no end in sight * SEK front-end: Covered vs. front-end curve * Covered bonds: Double the yield in Denmark * Swedish bond index: Major impact in linkers * Swedish budget: Revenge is sweet, would drive EUR/SEK higher * Cross-market: Oil, USD, high yield & asset correlation

Global policy mix turns more growth friendlyFT
Gavyn Davies: It seems quite possible that, for the first time in half a decade, global growth forecasts for 2015 will need to be revised upwards, not downwards.

Aamukatsaus – Maanantai 24.11.2014Nordea
Kohta selviää pysyykö bensa halpana | Draghin puheet näkyivät valuutta- ja korkomarkkinoilla | Venäjän vähittäismyynnin vuosikasvu pysyi muuttumattomana

Miinuskorko kuppaa tallettajaaJan Hurri / TalSa
Ensimmäiset saksalaispankit piiskaavat jo suuria tallettajia miinusmerkkisillä raippakoroilla – samaan tapaan kuin EKP piiskaa pankkeja keskuspankkitalletusten miinuskorolla. Suomessakin pankkitilien reaalikorot jäävät jo tuntuvasti pakkaselle. Näin syyttömät maksavat tahtomattaan kriisin hintaa.

Sote-mallista on jo käytännön kokemuksia: "Tulokset olivat aivan järkyttävät"Verkkouutiset
Koko maahan suunnitteilla olevasta sote-mallista on jo kokemusta Mänttä-Vilppulassa. Hoitoa ei saanut, kustannukset karkasivat ja kokeilu päättyi kriisiin.

Näin monta "ultra-rikasta" Suomessa on - määrä kasvoi Euroopan huippuvauhtiaTE

In memoriam: Ville OksanenJarmo Keto

Pelottavan puolueen tunnusmerkkejä – otteita tavoitteistaTyhmyri

Demarit ja veronkierto ja Juncker – löyhäpäisyys ei koskaan lakkaa hämmästyttämästäTyhmyri

Puolueiden välillä on erojaProfessorin ajatuksia
Yksiä äänestetään tunteen ja toisia asioiden perusteella

Yritystukiin lähes miljardi euroaYLE
Viking Line kuittasi suurimmat tuet. Eniten kasvoivat varustamo- ja telakkatuet, palkkatuet sekä uusiutuvan energian tuet.

Ihmelääke nuorisotyöttömyyteen – Saksan uusi vientivaltti?TalSa
Näkökulma Saksalainen huippumalli Euroopalle: nuoret pääsevät töihin, yritykset saavat uusia työntekijöitä ja uutta verta. Oppisopimusjärjestelmä on vapaaehtoinen, mutta siitä on kehittynyt yrityksille paitsi sosiaalinen velvollisuus, myös taloudellinen menestystekijä.

Suomi varautuu jihadistien paluuseenHS
Euroopassa mietitään parhaillaan vimmatusti, mitä taistelukentillä radikalisoituneille tehdä. Vastausta ei tiedä vielä kukaan.

Veroparatiiseja riittää EU:ssaYLE
EU sanoo taistelevansa veroparatiiseja vastaan. Työmaata riittää aivan kotinurkilla. Euroedustaja Sirpa Pietikäisen (kok.) mukaan EU:n 28 jäsenmaasta 22 täyttää veroparatiisin määritelmän tai ainakin sallii vääristävän verosuunnittelun. Ilmiön torjunta on jäsenmaiden omissa käsissä.