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Thursday, November 6

6th Nov - Special: ECB Previews

ECB preview: Europe tries patienceTradingFloor
Mads Koefoed: No big surprises expected from ECB meeting * Draghi will likely address continually low inflation * Increased financial sector confidence could boost lending

Three things to watch at today’s ECB meetingFT
Draghi’s management style * Balance sheet target * No BoJ-like big bazooka

Investors on ECB Easing: Now, 2015, or Never?WSJ
The possibility of quantitative easing as early as this week has been considered slim for months, but a majority of investors expect sovereign QE in the first quarter of 2015, or potentially in the second quarter. That said, a relevant 20% doesn’t expect ECB quantitative easing to be announced at all.

Kuroda Has Draghi in a Bind as Euro Soars Against YenBB

QE is no silver bulletThe Economist
Falling oil prices, banking system, fiscal transfer union

Five Questions for Mario Draghi From Asset Purchases to BanksBB
By how much will the ECB expand its balance sheet * Is more stimulus on the way * Is there a rift in the Governing Council * What is the outlook for inflation in the euro area * What’s next for Europe’s banks?

OECD Urges Sizable ECB Purchases as Europe Grinds to StandstillBB
OECD urged significant monetary easing for the euro area at a time when the region’s central bankers are increasingly divided in the face of a slowing economy.

ECB to wait for stimulus to sink in, Draghi style in limelightReuters

ECB preview: Moment of truth, but not just yetTradingFloor
ECB will wait for new forecasts and TLTRO’s outcome in December * Internally the ECB is a mess of opposing views * Corporate bond purchases and a minimal QE at some point

Intrigue in Frankfurt Global Macro Trading
This is a clearly orchestrated leak by the anti-QE side, timed to impact the upcoming ECB meeting, possibly to head off the risk that additional stimulus is conducted over the heads of the prior dissenters.

Orphanides also wonders what happened to the ECB’s monetary pillarMarket Monetarist

Euro Area Limping Toward Deflation Fuels QE Calls as ECB MeetsBB
The euro area is edging closer to the moment that deflation risks become reality.

Martin Wolf: Warnings from Japan for the eurozoneFT
Europe has been unwilling to address the structural excess savings of creditor countries

Wolfgang Munchau: Eurozone stagnation is a greater threat than debt FT
Monetary policy can boost markets in the short run, but this cannot be sustained indefinitely

ECB Needs Japanese LessonsView / BB
The required swelling of the ECB balance sheet will not happen without government bond purchases on a much grander scale than in 2010-2012.

The ECB confronts the dark past of its new home with sensitivityFT
The ECB helped create a memorial to Jews beneath its new HQ

Draghi Set To Open at Least One New Chapter in ECB HistoryWSJ

The "ECB Matrix"ZH
Here are the best "disappointment " and "delivery" trades ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting

ECB:  Everything Can't BeMarc to Market
It may be difficult for Draghi take fresh initiatives now. The second TLTRO is a month away, and the take down is expected to be more than twice the first. The covered bond purchase program is operational (it has even entered the new issue market) and the ABS purchases will soon begin. There are some indications that the pace of contraction in bank lending is continuing to slow. Both the supply of credit and the demand is improving according to the ECB's own surveys. The euro's decline will also be helpful.

Beecroft: Why Draghi's feeling the heatTradingFloor

Should the ECB Follow the BOJ’s ‘Shock and Awe’?WSJ

Quantitative Easing for the PeopleProject Syndicate
It is now a near certainty that, by the end of this year, falling energy and commodity prices will push annual inflation in the eurozone below zero – well under the ECB’s target of near 2%. Rather than continue to depend on misguided conventional thinking, the ECB must pursue the right form of quantitative easing.

Deep Divisions Emerge over ECB Quantitative Easing PlansSpiegel
To prevent dangerous deflation, the ECB is discussing a massive program to purchase government bonds. Monetary watchdogs are divided over the measure, with some alleging that central bankers are being held hostage by politicians.

ECB preview - Waiting for the impact of the easing measuresDanske Bank
We expect the ECB to remain in wait-and-see mode at the meeting in November and we believe the tone will be more dovish compared to the latest meeting in October.

Exclusive: Central bankers to challenge Draghi on ECB leadership styleReuters
National central bankers in the euro area plan to challenge Draghi on Wednesday over what they see as his secretive management style and erratic communication and will urge him to act more collegially, ECB sources said.

Markets Slide As European Central Bankers MutinyZH

Pulling the eurozone back from the brinkBruegel
Whatever its flaws, OMT is the closest thing to a safety net the eurozone has

Should the ECB care about inflation differentials? Bruegel
It is crucial to keep the average inflation rate close to two percent so that inflation differentials are possible without deflation in some parts of the euro area, which in turn might endanger area-wide financial stability and price stability.

Fed heads one way, BoJ the other. What now for ECB?Reuters

The ECB should stop fearing the GermansThe Economist
We are hosting a round-table discussion on what the European Central Bank can do to stave off deflation and boost growth in the euro zone. First up is Paul de Grauwe of the London School of Economics.

The Draghi Put on TrialProject Syndicate
The European Court of Justice will rule soon on the legality of the European Central Bank's "outright monetary transactions" scheme to finance crisis-stricken eurozone countries. But, instead of asking whether the ECB’s mandate allows it to act as lender of last resort, EU leaders should be making the case for why it should.

Draghi Stress Tested as BOJ-Riksbank Moves Pressure ECBBB
The extra easing now leaves Draghi under pressure to intensify his own response to weak inflation or surrender in a renewed global currency war that has policy makers looking to jolt consumer prices by embracing weaker exchange rates.

Sources: ECB to keep TLTRO terms unchanged unless economic picture darkensReuters

Draghi can only dream of moving like BOJ’s KurodaReuters