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Thursday, November 20

20th Nov - Lousy PMIs

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EU still considering fining France over budget rulesReuters
EU officials are considering fining France for failing to cut its budget deficit, although the euro zone's second biggest economy, a driving force in the creation of the shared currency, could yet be spared the unprecedented punishment.

Vicious circle(s) 2.0Bruegel
There has been a remarkable shift in the European mindset about banking crisis, from a first phase in which bail-in was a taboo, to a second one in which it is considered as a new normal and welcome practice. While trying to sever the sovereign-banking link, we may be disregarding vulnerabilities from banks’ mutual interconnectedness.

Central banks: Stockholm syndromeFT
Swedish experience puts the Riksbank at the fore of debate on when to end crisis-fighting measures

ECB QE and the prospect of gold purchasesFT
One of the problems with ECB QE, as we all know, is the lack of a collective eurobond or sovereign-neutral asset to target, which would make asset purchasing less, you know, subjective vis-a-vis the assets you choose to support and those you don’t. It is for this reason that analysts are divided about the type of assets Draghi may or may not be inclined to target.

ECB dips toe into dead sea of rebundled debtReuters
The European Central Bank is set to embark this week on a scheme to buy the kind of rebundled debt that sparked the global economic crash.

Why the ECB Needs to Go Risk-OnWSJ

Stronger together in Europe: the contribution of banking supervisionECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, marking the inauguration of the ECB’s new supervisory responsibilities, Frankfurt, 20 November 2014

GS: Multiple Expansion Is Over, "US Stocks Will Close 2015 Only 5% Higher"ZH

Watch out for China’s next 'new normal'...and the ones after thatTradingFloor
Chinese economy is on track for its worst performance in 25 years * Today’s 'new normal' could be tomorrow’s 'too-high' growth target * Regulatory turf wars are a footnote in the decision to stick to targeted stimulus

Daily Central Banks WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Staff Whispering Caution in Officials’ Ears * With Wary Eye on Global Tumult, Fed Opted to Stay on Policy Path for Now * Ebola Makes an Appearance in the Fed’s October Minutes * How Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen Spent Her September * As Yen Slides, Investors Shun Other Asian Currencies

Daily MacroWSJ
After some modestly encouraging news in the eurozone, Thursday’s flash purchasing manager surveys were disappointing. The same goes for China’s HSBC PMI, which is right on the threshold of showing contraction.  But it’s not all doom and gloom in the global economy: both Japan and Taiwan released data showing a surge in demand for their exports.

FI Eye-Opener: Fed on course towards policy normalisationNordea
FOMC members not overly concerned about turbulent financial markets. Chinese manufacturing PMI down to 50. Bank of Italy sees Euro area “on the brink of deflation”. Today Euro area PMIs and US CPI. Bond supply from France and Spain.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Currency carry trades are not what you
A common view in international finance is that currency trades make money because high-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate. This column argues that this view is flawed, suggesting that currency risk premia may be much simpler than previously thought. The carry trade has little to do with the appreciation of the currency, but instead exploits persistent differentials in interest rates across countries.

New normal, new divideTradingFloor
Today we discuss the evolution of monetary policy across the major central banks and assess the division within and between central bank policy-makers and the implications for FX.

Here Are Goldman Sachs’s Top Trades for 2015WSJ
Goldman's "Top Trade Recommendations For 2015"ZH

Japan: growth accelerates to eight-month high – Markit
China Output contracts for the first time in six months – Markit
China manuf PMI declines slightly as exports lose momentum – Danske Bank
China: PMI dips to get APEC blue – Nordea
China manuf PMI Misses, Slides To 6 Month Lows – ZH
China Factory Gauge at 6-Month Low Bolsters Easing Case – BB

French private sector output falls for seventh successive month – Markit
French PMI manuf. misses expectations – TradingFloor
French slump eases slightly but new business drying up – Reuters
French Factories Slump Deepens as Economic Weakness Persists – BB

German activity growth drops to 16-month low as new orders stagnate – Markit
German Growth Outlook Dims as Manufacturing, Services Weaken – BB

Eurozone weakest growth for 16 months – Markit
Euro area: PMIs lower than expected – Nordea
Euro PMIs declined again in November – Danske Bank
Pace of eurozone recovery slows to 16-month low – FT

EZ moves in wrong direction, Brits go shopping, Japanese exports jump – Marc to Market
Creaking euro zone, China sound warnings for global growth – Reuters

US Manuf. PMI Misses By Most On Record, Lowest Since January – ZH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Fed luottaa USA:n talouteen | Kiinan teollisuuden PMI-luku laski odotettua enemmän | USA:sta ristiriitaista rakennussektorin data

Rahatalous haltuun -luentosarjan materiaalit, osa 2Raha ja talous

Lähentymistä ja erkaantumistaTaloutta ja historiaa
Euroopan komission parin viikon takaisen suhdanne-ennusteen toivoisi päätyvän vääriksi osoittautuvien ennusteiden – ei niin pieneen – joukkoon.

EU ja lupa elvyttääBrysselin kone / YLE
Erikoistutkija Heikki Taimio Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksesta keskustelee siitä pitääkö EU:ssa harrastaa elvyttävämpää politiikkaa.Ja jos pitää, niin millä tavoin sitä voi tai kannattaa tehdä.

Ministeriö kaatoi salaamishankkeenHS
Pörssiosakkeiden julkisuus pysyy nykytasolla