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Wednesday, November 26

26th Nov - EU's investment "plan", ECB talk

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Labour force(d) mobility: Migration in EuropeBruegel
Last month Bruegel held an event exploring migration in the EU and the impact migration has on society and its contribution to sustainable economic growth. The free movement of labour is not only a key pillar of the European project, but also essential to the proper functioning of a monetary union. Inspired by this theme and the tone of the current political debate, we present 4 informative charts.

Eurosceptic parties harm recovery, chief executives warnFT
Chief executives at Europe’s largest companies have warned that rising support for eurosceptic political parties is deterring investment – and is one of the factors holding back recovery in the eurozone.

EU investment plan; game changer or empty vessel? – Reuters
Infrastructure “New Deal” is Yet More Smoke and Mirrors – naked capitalism
How Juncker plans to unleash investment in EuropeFT
Juncker Unveils $392 Billion Plan to Unlock EIB Financing – BB
Juncker defends funding method for €315bn infrastructure projects – FT

Understanding George Osbornemainly macro
Osborne's plans are illiterate in macroeconomic terms. The UK economy desperately needs more growth. There remains plenty of slack in the labour market, and real wages are continuing to fall.

UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.7% in Q3 – TradingFloor
Consumers Drive U.K. Growth as Exports, Investment Fall – BB

ECB, QE and so long to that damn negativityFT
QE elsewhere has not resulted in an increase in inflation expectations mainly because it did nothing to address the debt overhang… The ECB presumably knows this hence the reluctance, technical and legal considerations aside, to go ahead with Sovereign QE.

The role of the banking union in achieving financial stabilityECB
Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at the FT Banking Summit “Ensuring Future Growth”, London, 26 November 2014

Constancio Says ECB Sovereign-Debt Buying Would Use Capital KeyBB
ECB can decide on sovereign bond buys in Q1, says ConstancioReuters

Euro-area credit monitorDanske Bank

The Problem With the Eurozone’s Dose of Monetary MagicWSJ
Without the Bundesbank’s firepower, QE would be theoretically possible but practically unthinkable and certain to please no one. Proper, sovereign QE would require an open-ended commitment, possibly of a hundred billion euros’ worth of purchases every month. And, of course, it might not work.

Fault lines within the ECBFT
Gavyn Davies: The simmering row between the ECB’s Draghi and the Bundesbank’s Weidmann

Visualizing GDP: A Look Inside the Q3 Second Estimate – dshort
US durable goods orders surprise to the upside – TradingFloor
Personal Income increased 0.2% in October, Spending increased 0.2% - Calculated Risk
New home sales rise in October, but September revised down – Reuters
Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Unexpectedly Fell 1.1% in October – BB
Consumer, business spending data point to slowing growth – Reuters
Consumers Stay Within Means as U.S. Spending Matches Income – BB
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Rises to Highest in Seven Years – BB

RBA’s Lowe Sees Aussie Dollar Falling With Commodity PricesBB

Japan Is Running Out of OptionsView / BB

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: New York Fed Declares Household Deleveraging Over * ECB Prepared to Buy Sovereign Bonds Early Next Year, Says Constancio * Federal Reserve Proposes New Regulations for GE Capital * Regulators Okay Wells Fargo Plan on Theoretical Bankruptcy * All Quiet on the Fed Discount Rate Front

Daily MacroWSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Nordea MorningNordea
Japanese economy continues to recover Swedish NIER survey at 9.00

FI Eye-Opener: Ever lower lows Nordea
Record-low yield levels hit in the Euro-area government bond markets. Yields with more room to fall. Bundesbank worried about corporate bond bubbles. Busy US data flow continuing. Supply action from Germany, Portugal and the US.

Dollar is Firm but Loses Momentum Against the YenMarc to Market

FX Noon: Week's trading looks nasty, brutish and shortTradingFloor
Today's trading saw AUD tumble against the US dollar in a move that must have satisfied the country's reserve bank. Meanwhile, the ECB has edged yet closer to full-on quantitative easing and uncertainty regarding Opec's intention to cut oil production leaves us bearish on the Canadian dollar.


Daily Shot: Till debt do us part  TradingFloor
US home loans hit 13-year low * Student loan delinquencies on the rise * WTI crude falls to four-year low

From the floorTradingFloor
Banking sector is leading Chinese equities to 18-month high * Equities part of a "strong trend building here,", says Garnry * Stark warning for investors hoping to ride a Black Friday wave * Bond markets building momentum as evidence of money entering market grows * Fasdal says "there is a lack of negative correlation [in bonds] to equities" * Fresh money into bond markets on back of anticipated ECB QE drive

Radical cures for unusual economic illsFT
Martin Wolf: The crisis left a grim legacy, and the answers are likely to be unorthodox

OPEC's Prisoner's DilemmaMarc to Market

The Geopolitical Impact of Cheap OilProject Syndicate
Martin Feldstein: If the price of oil, which has fallen more than 25% in the past five months, remains at its current level, it will have important implications for many countries around the world, some good and some bad. If it falls further, as seems likely, the geopolitical consequences could be dramatic.

Little Comfort to Oil’s IllsWSJ
There was little good news in Moody’s latest musings on the oil and gas sector:  tumbling prices, lower demand in developed countries, cuts to investment budgets and a struggle to find sufficiently profitable production growth.

OPEC’s Vienna Meeting: The Views So FarWSJ

Saudi signals no output target changeFT

Amerikkalaiset kaasuttelevat jouluostoksille | Vieraskynä: Onko kultavarannon koolla väliä? | USA:n kuluttajien luottamus jäi odotuksista

Näin perustuloa voitaisiin kokeillaVerkkouutiset
Ajatushautomo Tänk ehdottaa perustuloa testattavaksi Suomessa niin sanotulla kenttäkokeella, josta saataisiin tieteellistä näyttöä perustulon vaikutuksista.

Vanha Venäjä-visio löytyi naftaliinista – eduskunta ennusti oikeinVerkkouutiset
Tulevaisuusvaliokunta pohtii taas, mihin suuntaan Venäjä kehittyy.

Jyrki Katainen yrittää luotsata 1,3 miljoonaa uutta työpaikkaa Eurooppaan – Verkkouutiset
Jyrki Katainen ensimmäisestä tulikokeesta: "Olen tyytyväinen" – IL
Liisa Jaakonsaari: Kelpo suoritus Kataiselta – IL
Tällainen on Kataisen kohuttu kasvu- ja investointipaketti – IL
Kataisen 20 miljardin paketin sisältö selvisi – IL
Juncker: Tänään Eurooppa kääntää sivua – YLE
Yrittäjät: Pk-yritysten merkitys Euroopan tulevaisuudelle on ymmärretty – Verkkouutiset