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Saturday, November 29

29th Nov - W/E: Linkfest



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
EU plans to streamline but not change key budget rules – Reuters
The European Commission wants to streamline the EU's complex rules governing economic policy-making, but won't change the two key laws that sharpened budget policy control during the debt crisis, a top official responsible for the euro zone said.

EU should be able to veto national budgets: Germany's Schaeuble – Reuters
The European Commission should be able to veto national budgets if they breach the EU's common fiscal rules, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday.

Sweden: parliament to vote on the budget - what if? – Nordea
The key question ahead of the parliament voting on the government’s budget proposal due 3 December is whether the Sweden Democrats will vote on the right-wing coalitions’ budget bill or not. If they do, this could lead to a government crisis.

Germany and France Aim to Avert a ‘Lost Decade’ – NYT

Avoiding Lost Decades: European Edition – Econbrowser

Is Europe Too Rigid to Survive? – View / BB
Uncompromising attempts to bind Europe together may instead hasten its abrupt and unmanageable dissolution, with unknown consequences. Making it easier for nations to take small steps away from European integration may be the best way to save the benefits of union in the long run.

Swiss Gold-Fetichism – An Expensive Decorative Effort – Place du Luxembourg
An Indian precedent for Switzerland – FT

  INVESTMENT PLAN
Juncker's plan for Europe in 90 seconds – FT / Youtube
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, has provided details of the commission's plans to kickstart investment spending in Europe and seed growth.

The EU investment plan: Fiddling while Europe burns – The Economist
Jean-Claude Juncker’s investment package is laughably inadequate

Charlemagne: Europe’s great alchemist – The Economist

Jean-Claude Juncker’s kick-start for the economy rests on some magical thinking



  CRISIS COUNTRIES
Special Report: Why Italy's stay-home shoppers terrify the euro zone – Reuters

Podemos’s spending plans lack financing ideas – FT
 
  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB preview: An interim step ahead of sovereign QE next year – Nordea
The question seems to be when, not whether the ECB will extend its asset purchases. Time is not ripe for sovereign QE. However, we expect the ECB to extend the purchases to investment grade corporate bonds and possibly also agency and supranational bonds. Even such an outcome is unlikely to push bond yields much lower in light of the falls already seen, while the euro should feel some pressure. If we are wrong, Draghi will at least sound dovish and leave the door wide open to new stimulus in Q1.

How innovative should central banks be? – ECB
Keynote speech by Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

ECB bond-buying: last action hero – FT / Youtube
The European Central Bank began its purchases of asset-backed securities to stimulate the eurozone economy on Friday. But it is already looking at doing more.

It's now or never, Mr. Draghi – TradingFloor
Stephen Pope: Regional inflation in Eurozone at five-year lows * Bundesbank blocking ECB's path to sovereign bond purchases * Italian unemployment hits highest level since 1977

Inflation declined - but ECB likely not to act next week – Handelsbanken
 
Draghi needs support on QE in the eurozone – FT
The effect of trying whatever it takes may raise expectations of inflation and growth by itself

Europe’s QE front runners step up – FT
Markets think it will happen but will not work

How innovative should central banks be? – ECB
ECB's Lautenschlaeger says sees little room for further easing – Reuters
Keynote speech by Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

ASIA
China's $6.8-trillion hole? – The Economist
Has China really blown $6.8 trillion on worthless investments over the past five years? This is the startling claim made by two Chinese government researchers that has, understandably, caused quite a stir. If true, it would mean that fully 37% of Chinese investment since 2009 was wasted on building bridges to nowhere and homes with no one in them.

MARKETS & ECONOMICS
I see currency wars – FT

A Long Look at Short-Termism: Questioning the Premise – Credit Suisse

A trip to the Tripoli casino – FT

Economic Development and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid: A Historical Perspective – naked capitalism

Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves? – FED
Deep Recessions Leave Permanent Scars, Fed Research Finds – WSJ
Harsh downturns tend to permanently lower the economy’s growth potential, according to new research from the Federal Reserve that upends conventional theory and suggests early and aggressive policy action is advisable when dealing with recessions.

Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economies – ECB

Causes of the G7 fixed investment doldrums – VoxEU.org
The post-Crisis G7 economies have suffered weak business investment despite record low interest rates and the favourable financial positions of corporates. Some consider this the ‘new normal’ arising from secular, supply-side forces that have contributed to declining potential growth rates. This column argues that structural factors alone are not sufficient to explain the current weakness in investment rates. There is thus room for positive surprise if companies realise the pent-up investment demand.

Welfare spending across the OECD – FT
Contrary to stereotypes, the US consistently spends more than Canada, while Germany spends more than Greece and the Norwegian government is stingier than most of Europe. Iceland’s ranking also surprised us.

Playing by the Rules: Reforming Fiscal Governance in Europe – IMF

The story of a remarkably stable US NGDP trend – Market Monetarist

Within- and cross-country price dispersion in the euro area – ECB

You Want a Bigger Paycheck? Convince Me – View / BB

  OIL
Global: Oil prices strain (some) central banks' credibility – Nordea
A supply-driven drop in oil prices is net-positive for medium-term i7nflation outlook. But this matters little for central banks whose credibility is being challenged. Instead, it rather increases the risks for already-challenged central banks (e.g. ECB). The FX theme of monetary policy divergence will remain on track. Inflation expectations will remain crucial in the Euro Area and are rising in importance in the US.

OPEC Meeting."The time has come. To say fair's fair" - or? – Nordea
OPEC decided to leave the production quota unchanged at 30 mb/d. Although the expectations about the outcome ware evenly split among analysts, the market reacted with disappointment. The Brent oil price fell by USD 4/barrel to USD 72.69/barrel after the decision was announced.

Oil prices and monetary policy – Long and Variable

A simple guide to the sudden collapse in oil prices – WaPo

Oil Enters New Era as OPEC Faces Off Against Shale – BB
OPEC’s decision to cede no ground to rival producers underscored the price war in the crude market and the challenge to U.S. shale drillers.

Breakeven Oil Prices For Every Drilling Project In The World – BI

  MONETARY POLICY
Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is Smudged – SF FED
An accurate measure of economic slack is key to properly calibrating monetary policy. Two traditional gauges of slack have become harder to interpret since the Great Recession: the gap between output and its potential level, and the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate. As a consequence, conventional policy rules based on these measures of slack generate wide-ranging policy rate recommendations. This variability highlights one of the challenges policymakers currently face.

Are some workers “slacker” than others? – FT
We don’t really understand why inflation-targeting central bankers closely monitor the job market. For starters, there is something unseemly about connecting consumer price inflation to theories of labour market “slack”. The implication of ideas such as the “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” is that innocent people should lose their jobs if the weighted-average nominal cost of goods and services rises a bit faster than an arbitrary target.

Central banks, December: ECB gears up for QE, but not quite yet – TradingFloor

Send in the helicopters? – The Economist
Would QE, as so far practiced, be the best approach? The idea of a helicopter money drop has been mooted by Milton Friedman and others.

  DEBATE
Keynes Is Slowly Winning – Krugman / NYT
Keynes is slowly losing (winning?) – Marginal Revolution
Understanding Anti-Keynesians – mainly macro
In Front Of Your Macroeconomic Nose – Krugman / NYT

OFF-TOPIC
How To Deal With Difficult People: 5 New Tips From Dan Pink – Bakadesuyo

When to Book Your Plane Ticket: A Guide – The Atlantic
Two economists share what they've learned from tracking airfare's seemingly inscrutable fluctuations.

26 Pictures Will Make You Re-Evaluate Your Entire Existence – Buzzfeed

A Soviet missile base in Germany that spy planes never saw – BBC
It was top-secret in 1959 and remains almost completely unknown to this day - the first Soviet nuclear missile base outside the USSR. But it is still there, crumbling and steadily being reclaimed by nature in the forests north of Berlin.

Vogelsang in Ruins – Uncube
An abandoned Soviet garrison rotting in the Brandenburg woods

Behind the Writing on the Stalls – The Atlantic
Why do people scribble on bathroom walls? Other than, you know, for fun.

Link feast - psychosis special – BPS

His career as a trader flamed out, so he tried oil tycoon – WaPo
Bryan Sheffield never planned on returning to Texas. He did. Now he’s the billionaire CEO of Parsley Energy.

Mohnish Pabrai's Million-Dollar Advice For A 12-Year-Old Investor – Forbes

At CIA Starbucks, even the baristas are covert – WaPo

The Jihad Cult: Why Young Germans Are Answering Call to Holy War – Spiegel
Hundreds of young German Islamists have traveled to Syria to fight with the terrorist group Islamic State. SPIEGEL explored the extremist scene in Germany and the fascination with jihad in order to find answers about what drives people to join the murderous cult.

Why your family drives you crazy – VOX
Research shows that the people who most annoy us are our loved ones and that, at the same time, we tend to be cruelest to the ones that we love the best. The question is: why?

Enthusiasts and Skeptics Debate Artificial Intelligence – Vanity Fair
Kurt Andersen wonders: If the Singularity is near, will it bring about global techno-Nirvana or civilizational ruin?

How Brands Become Cults – The Atlantic
The future of marketing will be about identity, not information

Of Course There Are Black Stormtroopers in Star Wars – The Atlantic
Fans objecting to John Boyega in The Force Awakens' teaser aren't just close-minded—they misunderstand the galaxy far, far away.

Rock Snob: Robot-Rock Originators Kraftwerk – The Scene
Music Snob: Inside Moby's Drum-Machine Collection – The Scene

How the World’s First Computer Was Rescued From the Scrap Heap – Wired

A Guide to Flatland: What It’s Like to Live in Two Dimensions – Wired

Magnus Carlsen, an unlikely chess master – FT
He moonlights as a model, naps on the job, skips homework – and snuffs out every rival


FINNISH
Onko valtiovarainministerin värillä väliä? – Sakari Heikkinen

Kysyntä, tarjonta ja Hesari – Akateeminen talousblogi

Kotitalouksien talletuskanta supistuu – Tarinoita taloudesta

David Cameronin maahanmuuttolinja otettava malliksi koko EU:lle – Professorin ajatuksia

"Ajoneuvoveron voimassa pitäminen ei lainkaan mahdollista" – IS
Euroopan Unionin vaatimukset autoilun ja liikenteen sääntelyn vapauttamiseksi ovat suuri uhka Suomen nykymuotoiselle verotukselle, paljastaa Eduskunnan arkistosta löytyvä muistio.

”Stubb painosti kirjoittamaan myönteisemmin TTIP-kauppasopimuksesta” – KU

Alkoholistin puoliso ei helposti kaada kulissejaan – TalSa