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Saturday, November 29

29th Nov - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EU plans to streamline but not change key budget rulesReuters
The European Commission wants to streamline the EU's complex rules governing economic policy-making, but won't change the two key laws that sharpened budget policy control during the debt crisis, a top official responsible for the euro zone said.

EU should be able to veto national budgets: Germany's SchaeubleReuters
The European Commission should be able to veto national budgets if they breach the EU's common fiscal rules, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday.

Sweden: parliament to vote on the budget - what if?Nordea
The key question ahead of the parliament voting on the government’s budget proposal due 3 December is whether the Sweden Democrats will vote on the right-wing coalitions’ budget bill or not. If they do, this could lead to a government crisis.

Germany and France Aim to Avert a ‘Lost Decade’NYT

Avoiding Lost Decades: European EditionEconbrowser

Is Europe Too Rigid to Survive?View / BB
Uncompromising attempts to bind Europe together may instead hasten its abrupt and unmanageable dissolution, with unknown consequences. Making it easier for nations to take small steps away from European integration may be the best way to save the benefits of union in the long run.

Swiss Gold-Fetichism – An Expensive Decorative EffortPlace du Luxembourg
An Indian precedent for SwitzerlandFT

Juncker's plan for Europe in 90 secondsFT / Youtube
Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, has provided details of the commission's plans to kickstart investment spending in Europe and seed growth.

The EU investment plan: Fiddling while Europe burnsThe Economist
Jean-Claude Juncker’s investment package is laughably inadequate

Charlemagne: Europe’s great alchemistThe Economist

Jean-Claude Juncker’s kick-start for the economy rests on some magical thinking

Special Report: Why Italy's stay-home shoppers terrify the euro zoneReuters

Podemos’s spending plans lack financing ideasFT
ECB preview: An interim step ahead of sovereign QE next yearNordea
The question seems to be when, not whether the ECB will extend its asset purchases. Time is not ripe for sovereign QE. However, we expect the ECB to extend the purchases to investment grade corporate bonds and possibly also agency and supranational bonds. Even such an outcome is unlikely to push bond yields much lower in light of the falls already seen, while the euro should feel some pressure. If we are wrong, Draghi will at least sound dovish and leave the door wide open to new stimulus in Q1.

How innovative should central banks be?ECB
Keynote speech by Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

ECB bond-buying: last action heroFT / Youtube
The European Central Bank began its purchases of asset-backed securities to stimulate the eurozone economy on Friday. But it is already looking at doing more.

It's now or never, Mr. DraghiTradingFloor
Stephen Pope: Regional inflation in Eurozone at five-year lows * Bundesbank blocking ECB's path to sovereign bond purchases * Italian unemployment hits highest level since 1977

Inflation declined - but ECB likely not to act next weekHandelsbanken
Draghi needs support on QE in the eurozoneFT
The effect of trying whatever it takes may raise expectations of inflation and growth by itself

Europe’s QE front runners step upFT
Markets think it will happen but will not work

How innovative should central banks be?ECB
ECB's Lautenschlaeger says sees little room for further easingReuters
Keynote speech by Sabine Lautenschläger, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

China's $6.8-trillion hole?The Economist
Has China really blown $6.8 trillion on worthless investments over the past five years? This is the startling claim made by two Chinese government researchers that has, understandably, caused quite a stir. If true, it would mean that fully 37% of Chinese investment since 2009 was wasted on building bridges to nowhere and homes with no one in them.

I see currency warsFT

A Long Look at Short-Termism: Questioning the Premise Credit Suisse

A trip to the Tripoli casinoFT

Economic Development and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid: A Historical Perspectivenaked capitalism

Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?FED
Deep Recessions Leave Permanent Scars, Fed Research FindsWSJ
Harsh downturns tend to permanently lower the economy’s growth potential, according to new research from the Federal Reserve that upends conventional theory and suggests early and aggressive policy action is advisable when dealing with recessions.

Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economiesECB

Causes of the G7 fixed investment
The post-Crisis G7 economies have suffered weak business investment despite record low interest rates and the favourable financial positions of corporates. Some consider this the ‘new normal’ arising from secular, supply-side forces that have contributed to declining potential growth rates. This column argues that structural factors alone are not sufficient to explain the current weakness in investment rates. There is thus room for positive surprise if companies realise the pent-up investment demand.

Welfare spending across the OECDFT
Contrary to stereotypes, the US consistently spends more than Canada, while Germany spends more than Greece and the Norwegian government is stingier than most of Europe. Iceland’s ranking also surprised us.

Playing by the Rules: Reforming Fiscal Governance in EuropeIMF

The story of a remarkably stable US NGDP trendMarket Monetarist

Within- and cross-country price dispersion in the euro areaECB

You Want a Bigger Paycheck? Convince MeView / BB

Global: Oil prices strain (some) central banks' credibility Nordea
A supply-driven drop in oil prices is net-positive for medium-term i7nflation outlook. But this matters little for central banks whose credibility is being challenged. Instead, it rather increases the risks for already-challenged central banks (e.g. ECB). The FX theme of monetary policy divergence will remain on track. Inflation expectations will remain crucial in the Euro Area and are rising in importance in the US.

OPEC Meeting."The time has come. To say fair's fair" - or?Nordea
OPEC decided to leave the production quota unchanged at 30 mb/d. Although the expectations about the outcome ware evenly split among analysts, the market reacted with disappointment. The Brent oil price fell by USD 4/barrel to USD 72.69/barrel after the decision was announced.

Oil prices and monetary policy Long and Variable

A simple guide to the sudden collapse in oil pricesWaPo

Oil Enters New Era as OPEC Faces Off Against ShaleBB
OPEC’s decision to cede no ground to rival producers underscored the price war in the crude market and the challenge to U.S. shale drillers.

Breakeven Oil Prices For Every Drilling Project In The WorldBI

Monetary Policy When the Spyglass Is SmudgedSF FED
An accurate measure of economic slack is key to properly calibrating monetary policy. Two traditional gauges of slack have become harder to interpret since the Great Recession: the gap between output and its potential level, and the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate. As a consequence, conventional policy rules based on these measures of slack generate wide-ranging policy rate recommendations. This variability highlights one of the challenges policymakers currently face.

Are some workers “slacker” than others?FT
We don’t really understand why inflation-targeting central bankers closely monitor the job market. For starters, there is something unseemly about connecting consumer price inflation to theories of labour market “slack”. The implication of ideas such as the “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” is that innocent people should lose their jobs if the weighted-average nominal cost of goods and services rises a bit faster than an arbitrary target.

Central banks, December: ECB gears up for QE, but not quite yetTradingFloor

Send in the helicopters?The Economist
Would QE, as so far practiced, be the best approach? The idea of a helicopter money drop has been mooted by Milton Friedman and others.

Keynes Is Slowly Winning – Krugman / NYT
Keynes is slowly losing (winning?) – Marginal Revolution
Understanding Anti-Keynesians – mainly macro
In Front Of Your Macroeconomic Nose – Krugman / NYT

How To Deal With Difficult People: 5 New Tips From Dan PinkBakadesuyo

When to Book Your Plane Ticket: A GuideThe Atlantic
Two economists share what they've learned from tracking airfare's seemingly inscrutable fluctuations.

26 Pictures Will Make You Re-Evaluate Your Entire ExistenceBuzzfeed

A Soviet missile base in Germany that spy planes never sawBBC
It was top-secret in 1959 and remains almost completely unknown to this day - the first Soviet nuclear missile base outside the USSR. But it is still there, crumbling and steadily being reclaimed by nature in the forests north of Berlin.

Vogelsang in RuinsUncube
An abandoned Soviet garrison rotting in the Brandenburg woods

Behind the Writing on the StallsThe Atlantic
Why do people scribble on bathroom walls? Other than, you know, for fun.

Link feast - psychosis specialBPS

His career as a trader flamed out, so he tried oil tycoonWaPo
Bryan Sheffield never planned on returning to Texas. He did. Now he’s the billionaire CEO of Parsley Energy.

Mohnish Pabrai's Million-Dollar Advice For A 12-Year-Old InvestorForbes

At CIA Starbucks, even the baristas are covertWaPo

The Jihad Cult: Why Young Germans Are Answering Call to Holy WarSpiegel
Hundreds of young German Islamists have traveled to Syria to fight with the terrorist group Islamic State. SPIEGEL explored the extremist scene in Germany and the fascination with jihad in order to find answers about what drives people to join the murderous cult.

Why your family drives you crazyVOX
Research shows that the people who most annoy us are our loved ones and that, at the same time, we tend to be cruelest to the ones that we love the best. The question is: why?

Enthusiasts and Skeptics Debate Artificial Intelligence Vanity Fair
Kurt Andersen wonders: If the Singularity is near, will it bring about global techno-Nirvana or civilizational ruin?

How Brands Become CultsThe Atlantic
The future of marketing will be about identity, not information

Of Course There Are Black Stormtroopers in Star WarsThe Atlantic
Fans objecting to John Boyega in The Force Awakens' teaser aren't just close-minded—they misunderstand the galaxy far, far away.

Rock Snob: Robot-Rock Originators KraftwerkThe Scene
Music Snob: Inside Moby's Drum-Machine CollectionThe Scene

How the World’s First Computer Was Rescued From the Scrap HeapWired

A Guide to Flatland: What It’s Like to Live in Two DimensionsWired

Magnus Carlsen, an unlikely chess masterFT
He moonlights as a model, naps on the job, skips homework – and snuffs out every rival

Onko valtiovarainministerin värillä väliä?Sakari Heikkinen

Kysyntä, tarjonta ja HesariAkateeminen talousblogi

Kotitalouksien talletuskanta supistuuTarinoita taloudesta

David Cameronin maahanmuuttolinja otettava malliksi koko EU:lleProfessorin ajatuksia

"Ajoneuvoveron voimassa pitäminen ei lainkaan mahdollista"IS
Euroopan Unionin vaatimukset autoilun ja liikenteen sääntelyn vapauttamiseksi ovat suuri uhka Suomen nykymuotoiselle verotukselle, paljastaa Eduskunnan arkistosta löytyvä muistio.

”Stubb painosti kirjoittamaan myönteisemmin TTIP-kauppasopimuksesta”KU

Alkoholistin puoliso ei helposti kaada kulissejaanTalSa