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Friday, November 7

7th Nov - Ok US payrolls, ECB pondered

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Ukraine accuses Russia of sending in tanks – Reuters
RUB slide continues - more to come – Danske Bank
Ruble: Watch Out Below – WSJ
Rouble gyrations stoke currency crisis worries – FT

Bundestag votes in favour of stricter benefits rules for EU migrants – Open Europe
German trade surge eases recession fears – Reuters
German Industrial Production Rises Less Than Economists Forecast – BB

ECB Needs More Voices, Greater Transparency to Save EuroWSJ
“Unless the ECB can build an internal consensus for monetary stimulus and an external consensus for fiscal efforts to restore growth and bring inflation back towards the ECB’s target, there will be no euro zone”

Draghi Stokes Speculation ECB Set to Intensify StimulusBB

Masterful ECB conference by DraghiGlobal Macro Trading
The combination of the new emphasis on balance sheet size and the fact that the ECB is likely to miss its target suggest that the ECB is seriously looking at QE, or at least more seriously than they ever have before.

Finland’s ECB Policy-Maker Sees No Friction Within Governing CouncilWSJ

ECB and QELong and Variable
Asking for sparkling water when all they will give you is the miserable punchbowl

It's good news that good news is bad newsMacro Man
What's next- corporate debt (thereby exposing the ECB to more overt credit risk)?   Sovereigns (thereby offending German sensibilities vis-a-vis monetary financing)?  Neither of these will solve the primary issue of getting credit to SMEs.

Roundtable: A QE proposal for Europe’s crisisThe Economist
Yanis Varoufakis: By purchasing large quantities of EIB bonds, the ECB can, in partnership with the EIB, help shift idle savings (that currently depress yields on all investments) into productive activities. This would be tantamount to a European New Deal.

ECB Prep Work Could Move Faster This TimeWSJ
“This month in a way was the precursor to more in December,” said Daiwa economist Robert Kuenzel. “At the very least, in December, he will have to send an irrevocable signal that there is more to come.”

ECB monitoring euro zone bank liquidity daily: Italy bank officials – Reuters
ECB Noyer Warns Low Rates Could Discourage Reforms – WSJ
ECB suspends early repayments of the three-year LTROs during the year-end period – ECB

NonsenseTim Duy’s Fed Watch
The Fed is not using unexpected inflation to lower unemployment. Just isn't happening now. Not tomorrow. Or the day after that either. And if the Fed wants to reduce inequality, they don't need unexpected inflation in any event. What they need is to actually generate the inflation they promised.

Fed's Mester says central bank not behind curve in setting policy: CNBC – Reuters
Dudley Says Fed Has Responsibility for Global Stability – BB

Employment Situation Summary – BLS
U.S. payrolls rise, unemployment rate falls to 5.8 percent – Reuters
U.S. Payrolls Rise as Jobless Rate Drops to Six-Year Low – BB
October Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
October payrolls: +214k, and jobless rate at 5.8% - FT
Dollar:  Beach Ball Action with Jobs Data – Marc to Market
214,000 Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Adds 214K Jobs, Below Expectations, Unemployment Drops To 5.8% - ZH
Participation Rate Rebounds From 36 Year Low – ZH
One In Five Jobs Added In October Was A Waiter Or A Bartender – ZH
Adds 214,000; unemployment rate sinks to 5.8 percent – WaPo
This is a goldilocks US employment report – TradingFloor
Stocks Pump-And-Dump, Silver Halted, Bonds Whiplashed – ZH
October Employment – 20 cent paradigms
Labour market firmer than suggested by continued weak wage data – Nordea
US labour market tightens faster than Fed is expecting – Danske Bank
Economists: ‘On the Whole, A Strong Report’ – WSJ
The October Jobs Report in 13 Charts – WSJ
Hilsenrath: Jobs Market Improving Faster Than Fed Expects, But Policy Steady – WSJ
Disappointment Offset by Upward Revisions - dshort
Solid Report, Seasonal Retail Hiring at Record Level – Calculated Risk
Clear Evidence of Wage Growth Still Elusive – WSJ
Despite faster growth, wages are still going nowhere – WaPo

BoJ fooling some of the people some of the timeTradingFloor
The Bank of Japan's QE expansion caught the market by surprise. The BoJ hopes to turn a deflationary mindset into a virtuous cycle. Meanwhile the falling yen hardly rates a mention in monetary policy statements, and the BoJ is not targeting the exchange rate.

Australian bank stress tests show mortgage vulnerabilityReuters
A severe housing market collapse could ravage Australian bank earnings and capital levels, stress tests showed on Friday, ramping up pressure on regulators to call for higher capital buffers in a review expected to conclude later this month.

RBA Sees Slow Growth, Warns Japan Flows May Keep Aussie HighBB

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: More ECB Action a Hope, Not a Promise * ECB Unites on Possible Further Stimulus * ECB Threatened to Pull Funding Unless Ireland Took Bailout * Fed’s Mester: New Fed Statement Important in Conveying Policy Outlook * Regulators Edge Toward Foreign-Exchange Settlement With Banks

Daily MacroWSJ
The struggle is over how close Germany is willing to get to its eurozone partners. The failings of that eurozone relationship were manifest again Friday in weaker-than-expected industrial-production data. In effect, Germany imported its latest economic problems from its neighbors, which are struggling from the effects of a deep financial crisis. Yet Germany itself, with its industrial- and export-led economic strategy, played a key role in fomenting that crisis.

US Jobs and MoreMarc to Market