30th Apr : Vappupuhe

Salaseura Keskiviikkokerhoon ei ole naisilla asiaa – HS

Keskiviikkokerho on sotien aikana perustettu salaseura, johon kuuluu huippupoliitikkoja, työmarkkinajärjestöjen ja suuryritysten johtajia, korkeita virkamiehiä sekä päätoimittajia.

Keskiviikkokerho toimi ehkä suljetussa kansantaloudessa. Voitiin suunnitella, ja riippumatta lopputuloksesta voitiin olla tyytyväisiä itseensä. Nyt kun ne suunnitelmat ja ajatukset ovat markkinavoimien vertaisarvioinnissa, onkin käynyt niin, että ne suunnitelmat ovat menneet perseelleen - minkä olisi aika moni, joka ymmärtää kansainvälisen talouden ja muutaman muun asian päälle, voinut kertoa jo etukäteen. Tätä ei jalustalle nostettu tietotaidoiltaan keskinkertainen, mutta omasta mielestään keskimääräistä parempi autoilija sulata. Ratkaisu on tietenkin päätyä tilaamaan tulevaisuusselvityksiä, pitää kiinni aiemmista käsityksistä ja olla vihaisenkatkera. Erityisesti harmittaa, että joku kehtaa arvostella.

30th Apr - US Close: Fed certainly not, ECB maybe.

30th Apr - US Open: ECB, Easy Be?

30th Apr - EU Open: Italy Eases Austerity

Asian holidays + the coming MayDay in Europe… But the event calendar is thick. Sounds like a recipe for low-liquidity market squeezes. I’ll prepare ECB& FED Watch posts next. See last night’s US Close post – long with couple of gems.

29th Apr - US Close: Fiscal vs Monetary, Worsening Macro

Huge post, sorry about that. With the 'death of austerity', coming central bank meetings and worries about their balance sheets, worsening macro in US and Europe, plenty of articles coming out. Coverage in the next couple of days might be erratic: about to (again) hospitalize the 'less-handsome' MoreLiver, and plenty of writing to do elsewhere. 

29th Apr - US Open

29th Apr - EU Open: Heaviest Week

Thought of the Day: OMT-ambiquity: A credible but useful (moral hazard-wise) backstop cannot be unconditional, but it cannot be strictly conditional either. The only way not to have holes in your plans is not to have a plan. In a way, everyone knows what the OMT is - but no-one can explain it.

 

What a week: FED on Tue/Wed, ECB on Thu, US payrolls on Fri – and plenty of other numbers as well. Great expectations are often met with little. This could be such a week. The Fed will probably note and promise to monitor the weakness, as they’re already “all-in”. The ECB knows that a rate cut would not help much, and even if they would do that, the markets would quickly realize that it will not help much. 

I hope that they would start some sort of regional unconventional measures to ease the tight credit conditions in “everywhere but Germany and few other countries”, but politically and technically we’re probably not yet there. Germany’s elections are coming up and the political leaders and bureaucrats have just hinted at easing up on austerity. Europe’s solutions always come in bits and pieces – because they lack the courage to push against the envelope. In a way it is funny how Hitler (inflation created the monster!) is still destroying the lives of the European people.

28th Apr - Weekender: Markets, Econ, Finnish

28th Apr - Weekender: US & Asia

28th Apr - Weekender: Europe

Joke of the Week – Olli Rehn

13-FEB-2013 (pdf)

…and it is widely acknowledged, based on serious academic research, that when the public debt rise above 90%, they tend to have a negative impact on economic dynamism, which translates into low growth for many years.

  

26-APRIL-2013

The Commission’s economic policy recommendations are not based on any single piece of research. We design our policies on the basis of a broad-based assessment, drawing on a wealth of studies – and also of course on our own analyses. The precise causal relationship between debt levels and growth is a complex one. There is no hard-and-fast rule; it is affected also by many country-specific factors.

27th Apr - Credit Guest: The Coffin Corner

This week's guest post from Macronomics continues his recent deflation theme with a look at asset prices and the yield-chasing. The party is still going on, even though everyone knows it will end at some point.

27th Apr - Special: US Q1-2013 GDP

27th Apr - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

26th Apr - US Open: GDP Ahead

Just the regular links for the US open, plus GDP previews:

26th Apr - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Last week’s ‘best’ here.

Summary of the week: Austerity’s failure has been wholly or partially admitted by Barroso, Merkel and the IMF, while the ECB remains a hardliner for now. Bad macro from Europe and US, and ECB has all the reasons it needs to ease policy next week. Whether they actually do their job is another matter. The statements coming from the VIPs make me thinking that there is something else going on.. Perhaps Spain or Italy has said “no more”, and Brussels and Berlin have little alternative but to ease off.

As the resistance to more fiscal burden sharing is limited, fragmenting the monetary policy is another way to "taking care of the business", with the additional benefit that the voters won't be asked about it and probably won't even notice anything. Merkel's admittance that different monetary policy is needed in Germany and elsewhere in Europe is strange - to me, it sounds like an admittance that one size does not fit all. 

For couple of weeks now the most important articles have dealt with Germany. In a way this is old news. Germany decides in the end. Besides, it is their elections, and other players give them room to maneuver. Because that’s all that matters – staying in power. That’s why I don’t have my hopes high on Europe’s future. 

26th Apr - EU Open: Germany bombs the ECB

Quote of the Day: Despite the unemployment crisis, the WSJ reports that bond market is booming in both Spain and Italy because of investor confidence that the ECB will intervene in the event of a crisis. Citi strategist Jose Luis Martinez called this a “shocking decoupling between the real and the financial economy”. – Counterparties / Reuters

Quote of the Day 2: So much, then, for the silly idea in Europe that “bad news is good news” because economic weakness will force the ECB to cut rates – Anatole Kaletsky / Reuters

25th Apr - US Close: Waiting for the Central Banks

Next up, Bank of Japan on Friday morning, then the FED on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday.

25th Apr - US Open: UK GDP a Positive

25th Apr - EU Open: Euro stronger, why?

The euro is stronger across the board, even after bad macro numbers. But the macro data is also weak in US. Two things come to mind: markets believe ECB's reaction function is non-existent - the central bank will do nothing unless the existence of the eurozone is threatened. Simple stuff like economics and unemployment does not concern them. On the other hand, everyone knows  the reaction function of the Federal Reseve and Bank of Japan. I think the euro rally is overdone now, and we should start seeing a return back to the magnet-like 1.3-level next.

24th Apr - US Close: Europe is getting interesting

Skim the headlines. Something is definitely happening. My wild guess: they are removing austerity measures, planning to bail-in some banks in too-large crisis countries and easing monetary policy. Actually might work. But they still have to fix the euro.

24th Apr - US Open: Bad German IFO

24th Apr - EU Open: German IFO, US Durables

After Tuesday's bad Markit purchasing manager-numbers from Germany, today's IFO index is expected to nail the coffin of a slowdown in core euro country. That should allow the ECB to act next week. Of interest are also the US durable goods orders later today, though the slowdown in US is already more or less confirmed by now.

23rd Apr - US Close: FlashBang!

23rd Apr - US Open: Bad European PMI

Bad PMIs from Europe pushes bond yields to lows not seen since 2010 - ECB easing being priced in (both the ECB and the FED hold their meetings next week). Next key events US PMI today, Wed Ger IFO, index Thu Dijsselbloem grilled & UK Q1 GDP, Fri EZ M3, US Q1 GDP.

EURUSD looks to be on a way down, but might see a bounce before further losses.

23rd Apr - EU Open: China's weak PMI, Europe's ahead

China's PMI was bad. Europe still ahead - and next week we have the ECB's and the FED's meetings. Bad PMI, coupled with the quarterly lending data soon from ECB + M3 money supply on Friday should guarantee easing from the ECB - perhaps a rate cut, but at least fragmented monetary policy to increase lending in the periphery (see yesterday's thoughts)

22nd Apr - US Close

While the weekend's meetings hardly surprised and the statements were pretty much in line of what was expected, two things stand out: Reinhart & Rogoff's debt/GDP 90% being a watershed level was debunked and the important talking heads (Diesel-Boom) stated that austerity has its limits and will be eased for e.g. Portugal. Secondly, the Germans were concerned about the easy monetary policy.. It looks like the leaders are getting the picture finally – the monetary policy is too easy for Germany and inflating housing bubbles in most core countries, while too tight for the periphery. Now it is either up to fragmented monetary policy (ECB next week?) or either more fiscal transfers or national budget overdrafts to sort out the mess.

22nd Apr - EU Open

21st Apr - Weekender: Linkfest

Note the extensive specials: while the IMF/G20-meetings on the surface were dull, at least it looks like the austerity has been buried – but behind the curtains, and without any real action. Looks like Europe will not break up the eurozone (to facilitate exchange rate adjustments in order to alleviate competitiveness differences and debt burdens) or accelerate the drive to a transfer union – at least not before the German elections.

21st Apr - Special: IMF / G20 / WTO Meeting

21st Apr - Special: Reinhart & Rogoff Debacle

Kenneth & Rogoff’s seminal paper on countries’ debt levels and how growth slows after debt/GDP passes 90% is being attacked. This is very, very important, as the paper has been the main argument of the “austerians”. 

21st Apr - Credit Guest: The Awful Truth

This week's guest post by Macronomics continues the previous post's theme on deflationary forces and the message is not good.

21st Apr - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

19th Apr - Weekender: Best of the Week

The ending week’s best articles picked from my blog posts. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.

19th Apr - EU Open

18th Apr - US Close

18th Apr - US Open

18th Apr - EU Open

17th Apr - US Close

17th Apr - EU Open

16th Apr - Special: IMF World Economic Outlook

IMF published the latest World Economic Outlook and the real surprise is the blunt advice to Europe: massive monetary easing and fiscal union are needed.

16th Apr - US Close: Central Planning Day

Today has been a central planning day. plenty of speakers from the Federal Reserve, in Europe Mr. Draghi spoke to the parliament and then IMF presented its latest World Economic Outlook - which hardly surprised anyone, except perhaps those who still believe in the European Commission and the fairy tale of the eurozone. I will post a quick "special" on the IMF and latest blog storm regarding the seminal paper by Kenneth & Rogoff.

16th Apr - US Open

16th Apr - Long-term Gold & SPX

Gold and SPX long-term charts - the dates don't quite line up, sorry about the quick edit.

16th Apr - EU Open

15th Apr - US Close: JPY, Gold, Europe

Risk markets feeling bad - JPY stronger across the board, AUDUSD down with gold. Friday's "EZ periphery central banks must sell their gold" is a major reason, so is the US warning on Japanese monetary policy. I think it is too early for a 1998-type of a scenario in the JPY (JPY strengthened by 12% in a matter of days). Perhaps the G20 and IMF meetings on Thursday and Friday will put a bottom to the EURJPY and USDJPY. And, oh yes, bad views on Europe, but that's nothing new.

15th Apr - US Open

15th Apr - EU Open: Ranging

Week's main events are the Thu-Fri IMF- and G20-meetings. Dull calendar, so headlines from Europe (remember Friday's gold?) and Japan (today's ex-Soros-aide) dominate. Technical trading it is, then. The earnings season in US is now on, disappointments probable, which could break the mood in other risk markets (yen and bonds). China's Q1 GDP below expectations.

14th Apr - Some FX Views

After last week's views, a quick update...

14th Apr - Weekender: Linkfest

Another Ecofin meeting behind us, worse than expected macro from US, Slovenia and Portugal in trouble, Japan's monetary policy intrigues, banking is a big issue behind the headlines. Focus shifting to Germany as everyone wonders what comes after their elections. Note that the recent decision on Cyprus are covered in the Special.

14th Apr - Credit Guest: The Night of The Yield Hunter

The zero interest rate policy is driving a hunt for yield everywhere. in any place, in any instruments. This could (and should) lead to increasing default risks, as Macronomics' guest post discusses.

13th Apr - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

12th Apr - Weekender: Best of the Week

Best of the ending week, previous ‘Best’ here.

12th Apr - EURUSD update

Resistance at daily level, but uptrend still in place. At the bottom of the hourly channel. Tactical longs preferred for another test of the highs.

12th Apr - EU Open

11th Apr - US Close: Portugal & Slovenia?

11th Apr - Joke (in Finnish)

Tämä on testamentti, jota en koskaan uskonut joutuvani kirjoittamaan.

11th Apr - US Open: My thoughts on Thatcher

Let me get this out of my mind: Helmut Kohl just said that the European vision was hurt by resistance from Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher nailed the impossibility of the euro area years ago.Kohl admits that the birth of euro would not have been possible democratically.  While I am not a big fan of Thatcher’s social and economic policies in general, at least she did the right thing on Europe. While she lost power because of her euroskepticism, it did put a stone into the federalists’ shoes. There should have been more people like that at that time.

Kohl confesses to euro's undemocratic beginnings – euobserver

Thatcher ‘to blame’ for British split on Europe – presseurop 

Thatcher knew the single currency would devastate Europe – The Telegraph

Thatcher Was Freakishly Correct About Why The Euro Would Be Such A Big Disaster – BI

11th Apr - EU Open

10th Apr - US Close: Tight FOMC minutes, fresh European worries

10th Apr - US Open: Waiting for Fed Minutes

Fed minutes to be published later today. Friday begins with the Eurogroup meeting. Dull otherwise.

10th Apr - EU Open: Slovenia, to B or not to B?

9th Apr - US Close: Soros, Yen, LTRO

Soros requests Germany to leave the euro or accept eurobonds. The sources of demand and supply of the yen is also interesting. 

9th Apr - SPX View

What I wrote in early March on SPX is still relevant - we got another leg up without correction, but perhaps the time is now?

9th Apr - US Open: End of EU banking secrecy?

I’m thinking of a radical change. Instead of continuously posting the regular links, they are now moved to a permanent page. My standard posts would thus in the future only have article links and my own thoughts. If this is ok with you, fine. If not, drop me a message.

Bank secrecy in Europe looks like to be ending… Austria and Luxembourg have resisted, but the tone is changing fast. Also, Saxo Bank’s Q2-asset class comments are now out.

9th Apr - EU Open

8th Apr - US Close

8th Apr - US Open

Quote of the Day…notice what the Japanese yen has been doing lately. As long as I can remember, buying USDJPY around 80-85 and selling around 120-130 has been an easy way to make money. Currently 80.35, next stop 83. MoreLiver on 25-Oct-2012

8th Apr - EU Open: Portugal in crosshair

Europe’s this week’s trouble spot: Portugal. Also, Japan looks like it will remain a cause of volatility, but for the moment it mainly acts as a suppressant of the Europe’s peripheral bond yields. Oh yes, a Soros interview and technical analyst’s club turned 40.

7th Apr - Credit Guest: Big in Japan

Unless you've been binge drinking or holed up by a cave-in, you already knew that Bank of Japan's super-easy reflation announcement was the major event of the last week. The trusted sage Macronomics explains the situation in this guest post. Most importantly, the easy money has helped the European bond markets a lot. This makes the Japanese situation relevant to the euro crisis watchers as well...

7th Apr - Views & Charts

Favourite plays for the beginning week: short EURGBP. Long USDJPY or GBPJPY. 

Of minor interest are EURUSD longs, but already in the middle of the probable range, and the pair is open to headline risk. Click charts for larger versions.

6th Apr - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week, The ‘best of the best’ are highlighted. Summary of the week: Bank of Japan delivers, European Central Bank fiddles and USA brought a string of negative surprises. A Views & Charts-post coming up on Sunday, probably another Weekender Linkfest as well.

6th Apr - Special: Bank of Japan

This is just a collection of all the links on the Bank of Japan's move that I've posted earlier - for your convenience. Last update 11-Apr 19:00 GMT

6th Apr - Weekender: Linkfest

Europe, US, Asia - and some Finnish-language stuff as well. Big news is still Bank of Japan,

6th Apr - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

5th Apr - Special: US Employment Report

Updated 9-Apr 22:30 GMT

5th Apr - US Open: Payroll day

5th Apr - EU Open

EURUSD still in the channel, coming back down... Payrolls ahead.

4th Apr - US Close

4th Apr - US Open: ECB Coming up...

BoJ was the stunner. Let's see if ECB can surprise as well...

4th Apr - Special: ECB Watch

To be updated. First economy, followed by "before", then links, at the bottom post-event thoughts.

4th Apr - EU Open: BoJ delivered, will ECB?

Japan delivered. ECB will probably not, though there are reports that it is preparing something for PIIGS: easing collateral requirements to allow banks to throw in SME- and other stuff to ECB. With the sovereign side already handled by the OMT-program, this would fit the bill nicely. To anyone who complains: running a monetary union is like this. It would have been better not to have the thing in the first place, but that was then and this is this.

3rd Apr - Joke

3rd Apr - US Close: ECB to expand? and Bitcoin

Interesting rumors that ECB is planning to ease its collateral requirements to include credit portfolios specificaly to target the negative lending growth in PIIGS.

3rd Apr - US Open

I added several charts to the previous Views & Charts-post. Notably the EURUSD chart with ECB meeting days marked is a nice one, plus some sell-side charts on monetary conditions in the euro area.

3rd Apr - Views & Charts

Some random charts ahead of the central bank day Click to enlarge.

3rd Apr - EU Open

2nd Apr - US Close: Articles of Plenty

Scroll down to the highlighted links. They are worth it. JP Morgan's quarterly report is a must-read.

2nd Apr - US Open: Bad Europe, again

2nd Apr - EU Open: CB Week

If you’re just back from the Easter weekend, take some time to check my earlier posts. The two Linkfests had plenty of good ones on Europe. This week’s calendar is heavy: 4 central bank meetings (Australia, Japan, England, Europe). Good review here. Italy’s politics, Cyprus news and possible bond yield changes in PIIGS are possible headline items. The tensions in Korea are of interest as well. Oh yes, the Cyprus-post has been updated.

Today 

Europe: Purchasing Manager Indices from UK and Germany. The flash PMI-numbers have been published already earlier, so no news expected. US: 4 FED speakers and Feb Factory Orders. Looks like a technical hangover day in Europe.

1st Apr - US Close

1st Apr - US Open (light)

1st Apr - Special: April's Fools (Finnish)

APRILLIA!

1st Apr - Weekender: Linkfest II

This is the weekend's second large linkfest. The Cyprus bailout special has been updated. The Weekly Support will be updated on Tuesday as the analysts return to their desks.