Asian holidays + the
coming MayDay in Europe… But the event calendar is thick. Sounds like
a recipe for low-liquidity market squeezes. I’ll prepare ECB& FED Watch
posts next. See last night’s US
Close post – long with couple of gems.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Current Specials:
Special:
Reinhart & Rogoff Debacle (updated)
Roundups
News roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Equities Make Hay, Sun or
No Sun – WSJ
Europe Morning
MoneyBeat – WSJ
MORNING BRIEFINGS
The market will be
keenly watching today’s updates on retail sales and unemployment in Germany to
evaluate the degree of Eurozone macro risk and the odds of an ECB rate cut on
Thursday. Later, Standard & Poor’s updates the latest on US home prices.
Market Preview: EU unemployment and German
retail sales eyed – TradingFloor
European markets are
likely to open firmer Thursday amid hopes of continuing monetary easing by
major global central banks. Markets are keeping an eye on the Eurozone
unemployment rate and German retail sales data due later today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Italian
government scraps tax increases and signals less fiscal austerity. Japanese
data weaker than expected but still suggest a recovery has started. Today’s
eurozone CPI should improve odds of ECB rate cut. Italian PM Letta to deliver his
message of less fiscal austerity to Berlin. Market movers today: EUR: Italian
PM Letta meets. German PM Merkel in Berlin. EUR: CPI for April. ESP: Q1 GDP. DEM:
Unemployment. USD: Consumer confidence and Chicago PMI
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Italian ja
Espanjan korot normalisoitumassa * Hidas kasvu ydinmaissa jatkuu * Hauskaa
vappua!
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)
EUROPE
European Union
governments are starting to relax their austerity-first approach to economic
policy. Better late than never; we’ve been advising them to do just that for
months. It’s a shame the new thinking, however welcome, is too limited and
incoherent.
Did the euro kill governance in the periphery? – voxeu.org
By the end of the
1990s, under the incentive of Eurozone entry, most peripheral European
countries were busy undertaking structural reforms and putting their fiscal
houses in order. This column argues that the arrival of the euro, and the
subsequent interest-rate convergence, loosened a tide of cheap money that
reversed the incentives for further reforms. As a result, by the end of the
euro’s first decade, the institutions and governance in the Eurozone periphery
were in worse shape than they were at the start of the decade.
UNITED STATES
Just a Few Weeks Makes a World of Difference – Tim
Duy’d Fed Watch
he FOMC statement
should shift to indicate the softer economy and falling inflation numbers; I am
watching for how much emphasis they place on the latter as a signal as to the
likelihood of easing further in future meetings. Like most, I don't anticipate an expansion of
the program at this juncture.
A slowdown in US lending or a ramp up in shadow
banking? – Sober
Look
Why would banks want
to keep all these mortgages on their books when they can blow them out to
Freddie and Fannie, who in turn sell them to the market in the form of agency
MBS (mortgage backed securities). And who are the buyers? The usual suspects of
course - insurance firms, mutual funds, etc., as well as the biggest buyer of
them all - the Fed.
OTHER
Investors earn handsome paychecks by handling
Buffett's business – Omaha
Interviews of people
working for ‘The Sage’.
Can "culture" predict economic
development? – Noahpinion
Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects on the
Exchange Rate at the ZLB – EconBrowser