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Thursday, April 4

4th Apr - US Close





Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Interest Rate Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Nonfarm Payrolls, Trade Deficit – WSJ
Europe: Safe-Haven Flows Drag Swiss 2Y Rates To 3-Month Lows – ZH
US: Down, Up, Down, Up… – ZH
Morning Briefing (Asia) – BNY Mellon


EUROPE
UniCredit’s Ghizzoni Favors Using Big Deposits in Bank FailuresBB

Europe’s Perpetual CrisisProject Syndicate
The Cyprus bailout deal is a watershed in the unfolding eurozone crisis, but imposing losses on banks’ depositors violates the deposit-insurance guarantee that forms part of the proposed European banking union, while the imposition of capital controls further erodes the monetary union’s foundations. So, is Europe chasing its tail?

Covered Bonds Avoid Euro-Crisis ChaosWSJ
A string of bailouts for governments and banks across Europe has left just one type of bank debt untouched: covered bonds.

The recent political history of Greece highlights the risk that the euro might become unaffordable for the mass of EuropeansEuropp / LSE

UNITED STATES
Fed’s Evans and Lockhart Discuss How QE3 Could EndWSJ
Two Fed officials said they want to press forward with central bank bond buying for now, although one allowed the Fed may soon have enough information to decide whether it can pare back or stop its most aggressive form of stimulus.

Fed's Yellen: Communication in Monetary PolicyCalculated Risk

73-Year Chart Comparing Estimated Shiller PE Returns to Actual ReturnsGreenbackd

  PAYROLL PREVIEWS
What to look for in Friday’s US jobs reportThe A-List / FT

Employment Situation PreviewCalculated Risk
There is always some randomness to the employment report, but my guess is the BLS will report somewhat below the consensus of 193,000 jobs added in March.

Why Friday’s payrolls report may disappointMacroScope / Reuters
The consensus from a Reuters poll of 71 economists is for 200,000 jobs to have been created in March. The strong forecasts come on the back of the 236,000 jobs gained in February when economists had predicted only 160,000. That may be too hard to realise especially since data since then has thrown enough reasons to doubt a strong rebound.

ASIA
(audio) World Weekly: Is war with North Korea imminent?FT
In the last two weeks, tension on the Korean peninsula has risen dramatically, as North Korea has threatened to target US territories in the Pacific and blocked South Korean workers from entering a joint industrial complex in the North. In this week’s podcast, John Aglionby is joined by Geoff Dyer, diplomatic correspondent and Jamil Anderlini, Beijing bureau chief, to discuss whether Kim Jong-eun’s escalating rhetoric is purely sabre-rattling or if we should be worried about his threats.

  JAPAN
Kuroda follows the path of Volcker and GreenspanThe A-List / FT
Stephen King: So far, so good. The commitment is most definitely there and the ambition has now been well-defined. Yet Japan is not yet out of deflationary trouble and, even in the event of the monetary equivalent of the Great Escape, it might still all end in disappointment.

Bank of Japan Getting Better at Playing With MarketsWSJ

The BoJ massivealphaville / FT
For those who need a rundown of what the BoJ actually did, here’s a summary from Nomura:

Check Out Yen’s Explosive Move After BOJ MeetingMarketBeat / WSJ
Make no mistake, the Bank of Japan just pulled out all the stops to boost its flailing economy.

OTHER
Central banking roundup Free exchange / The Economist

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank (pdf)

Mapping The Witch-Hunt Of The World's Offshore Bank Account HoldersZH
Six Steps To "Stash Your Cash" OffshoreZH