Note the extensive
specials: while the IMF/G20-meetings on the surface were dull, at least it
looks like the austerity has been buried – but behind the curtains, and without
any real action. Looks like Europe will
not break up the eurozone (to facilitate exchange rate adjustments in order to
alleviate competitiveness differences and debt burdens) or accelerate the drive
to a transfer union – at least not before the German elections.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Current specials:
Special: Reinhart & Rogoff
Debacle (updated)
Reinhart and Rogoff’s
mistake, Germany’s new anti-euro party, and how should citizens react to terrorism?
We must re-evaluate the European Union – TradingFloor
Lars Seier Christensen:
In the Danish version of former Czech Republic President Václav Klaus' book
'Europe - The shattering of illusions' I wrote a postscript sharing my thoughts
on the European crisis and the lessons to be learned.
Among other things,
recent European politics has suffered from a shortage of prophets
Notes on Political Union for Barry Eichengreen's "Future of the
Euro" Conference, as Delivered
Speech by Mr Jörg
Asmussen, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB 18 April 2013.
Jörg Asmussen – Eurozone cross-fire: the way
out of economic recession - Assessment of a realist and a response to idealists
and cynics – ECB
And what took *you* so long, Fitch? – alphaville
/ FT
The UK lost its second AAA rating on Friday night
after Fitch cut its rating to AA+. The outlook’s stable. S&P is now the
only one of the big three giving Britain a top rating.
François Hollande’s
cyclical troubles
Accepting Failure – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
It is starting to look
like European policymakers have given up trying.
Italy, Europe:
Please Do Something! – EconoMonitor
The solution would be
for euro members to use the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) facility
provided for under the statute of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), to undertake overt money financing (OMF) of
government debt in order to finance tax cuts or new spending programs.
BANKING
Disagreement over who
should pay for the restructuring of resolution of problem banks has produced
diverging interpretations of what a "common" fund entails.
The future of Europe-wide stress testing – voxeu.org
Selective
asset-quality reviews and a high degree of transparency would add credibility
and reduce uncertainty. Europe-wide stress tests will need to focus on
structural, cross-border, and funding-related issues.
GERMANY
Stick with the Germans? – Free
exchange / The Economist
Mostof Germany's political leadership continues to state
unwavering support for euro zone. And perhaps if push came to shove and an
economy truly were on the brink of exit, the German government would accept
quite significant sacrifices to forestall that possibility. One wonders,
though.
Three years and dozens
of international summits into the euro zone debt crisis, Germany’s finance
minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, seems to have come to Washington this week with a
simple message: You still don’t understand Europe.
"The falling
apart of CDU/ CSU and FDP coalition is beginning to show in all seriousness
now. If Bundestag needs to vote one more time before the federal elections
(i.e. on Slovenia, Spain, France), the Government might not make it."
Understanding German Politics – Mish’s
Public support for the
EU drops by 16% in one month
The Stupid Cruelty of the Creditor – Mainly
Macro
Why is this happening?
Because the Eurozone governments that foolishly bailed out Greece after the crisis first developed in 2010/11
want all their money back.
Is the IMF turning bearish on Spain? – Open
Europe
Cypriot banks, the Pimco report – alphaville
/ FT
UNITED STATES
STOCK MARKET
Are Earnings Expectations Realistic? – John
Mauldin / The Big Picture
Bottom-Line Average, Top-Line Bad – Bespoke
A little over 200
companies have reported earnings so far this season, and as shown below, 58% of
them have beaten consensus earnings estimates.
This is the exact same "beat rate" we saw last earnings season.
Unfortunately, top-line revenue numbers haven't been pretty.
Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John
Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition – Greenbackd
Bernanke told global
policymakers he sees no risk to inflation in the United States, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny
said on Saturday.
Baby it’s cold outside: monetary policy as
outer wear – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Fed's easy policies necessary as a parka in
winter: Kocherlakota – Reuters
The Fed’s ultra
accommodative policies will inevitably result in financial market instability
for years but such risks are necessary to boost employment and inflation, a top
U.S. central bank official said on Thursday.
Have the inflation-paranoid capitulated? – alphaville
/ FT
Several Central Bankers Note Tapering Not a
Done Deal – WSJ
Talk of tapering Fed
bond buying has dominated the monetary policy debate over recent weeks. But
over recent days, several central bankers have reminded market participants
pulling back is not a done deal.
Hard Money Man: Paul Volcker’s Economy – Boston
Review
Book Review: The Federal Reserve and the
Financial Crisis – CFA
Institute
Historical Echoes: Fedspeak as a Second
Language – N.Y.
FED
A central market theme
remains what the spill-over effect of the aggressive Japanese QE programme will
be. It is still early days for the BoJ programme and it will take time before a
clear pattern is established. Given the magnitude of the BoJ intervention, we
expect it to have a positive effect on the European government bond market in coming
quarters.
EMERGING
Emerging Markets: What Has Changed? – Marc
to Market
Reasons behind emerging markets correction – Sober
Look
OTHER
On Japan’s
widowmaker trade and Reinhart and Rogoff – Credit
Writedowns
Major industrialized
countries with nonconvertible fiat currencies i.e not using the gold standard
or in the euro zone should take the right lessons away from the Reinhart and
Rogoff study and from Japan’s experience.
When Safe Havens Become Bubbles In Disguise – Asia
Confidential
Sovereign-debt markets: an illusory haven – The
Economist
Buttonwood: Like chess, only without the dice – The
Economist
It is hard to find
economic explanations for gold’d sharp fall
Daily Notes: Inflation vs Deflation Trade,
Earnings, Global Equities, Copper, Citi ESI, Technicals, Gold Miners... – The
Short Side of the Long
Before Housing Bubbles, There Was Land Fever – Shiller
/ NYT
Financial Stability Monitoring – FED
(pdf)
Systemic
vulnerabilities arise from market failures that can lead to excessive leverage,
maturity transformation, interconnectedness, and complexity. These
vulnerabilities, when hit by adverse shocks, can lead to fire sale dynamics, negative
feedback loops, and inefficient contractions in the supply of
credit. We present a
framework that centers on the vulnerabilities that propagate adverse shocks,
rather than shocks themselves, which are difficult to predict.
Optimal sovereign default – Bundesbank
(pdf)
Deutsche Bundesbank
Discussion Papers by Klaus Adam, Michael Grill
Financial Globalization and Monetary
Transmission – SNB
(pdf)
Swiss National Bank
Working Papers by Simone Meier
On financial risk and the safe haven
characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates – SNB
(pdf)
Swiss National Bank
Working Papers by Christian Grisse and Thomas Nitschka
The Non-Secret of Our Non-Success – Krugman
/ NYT
“We don’t fully
understand what is happening in advanced economies.” Um, guys, that’s because
you don’t want to understand.
Begging the long run question: inflation
variability vs NGDP growth variability – Worthwhile
OFF-TOPIC
Friday Flashpoints – Our Weekend Reading List – The
Diplomat
Every Friday, The
Diplomat’s Harry Kazianis looks out across the net to find the best articles
and analysis involving defense, strategic affairs, and foreign policy.
“Manufacturing Consent” 25 Years Later – naked
capitalism
FINNISH
SAKSA
SAKSA
Saksa
vaatii deflaatiota ja taloudellista tuhoa Euroalueelle
– Tyhmyri
Kriisimaissa vielä poliittisesti
hämmästyttävän rauhallista
Wolfgang
Schäuble - mystinen hahmo – Henri
Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro
SUOMI
EU ja
eduskunnan tahto – Brysselin
Kone / YLE
Eduskunnan EU-sihteeristön päällikkö,
valiokuntaneuvos Peter Saramo keskustelee siitä millä tavoin Suomen eduskunnan
tahto vaikuttaa Brysselisä.
Mihin
suuntaan EU:ta kehitetään? – Brysselin
Kone / YLE
Europarlamentaarikko Nils Torvaldsin mielestä
EU:ssa on demokratiavaje. Parlamentilla ei ole sitä valtaa mikä sillä pitäisi
olla. Komissio, joka hänen mukaansa on käytännössä virkamieshallitus, käyttää
valtaa enemmän kuin virkamieshallitukselle demokratiassa kuuluisi.
Stubb
tilasi vision nuorilta: Entistä tiiviimpi EU – Talouselämä
Nuoret vaativat päätösvaltaa Euroopan
unionille – Valtioneuvosto
Mikä EU:sta tulee isona? Nuorten näkemys EU:n
tulevaisuudesta – Valtioneuvosto
(pdf)
Nuorten näkemys EU:n tulevaisuudesta –videot –
Vimeo
Hallituksen
EU-linja hakusessa – Sampo Terho
Erkki
Liikanen: Asuntojen lainakatto pitäisi säätää lakiin –
TE
Ykköshaastaja:
Keskustan Juha Sipilä kurkottaa kohti pääministerin salkkua – TE
HS-selvitys:
Putinin lähipiiri haalii omistuksia Suomessa – HS
Useat Venäjän presidentin Vladimir Putinin
lähipiiriin kuuluvat venäläistaustaiset vauraat liikemiehet ovat haalineet
omistuksia Suomen talouselämässä. Liikemiesten omistukset kulkevat usein
monimutkaisten veroparatiisijärjestelyiden kautta.
Miljonääri hankki kesäpaikan Haminasta
veroparatiisin kautta – HS
Venäjän rikkaimmat veljekset – HS
Suomalais-venäläinen veroparatiisikuningas – HS
MUUT
Turha
toivoa liikoja – Kiinan talousihme hiipuu – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Kiinan talousihme merkitsi vuosikaudet
huimasti odotettua nopeampaa kasvuvauhtia. Seuraava yllätys on, kuinka nopeasti
Kiinan kasvu hidastuu. Huikeaa kasvua jatkavat enää hukkainvestoinnit ja yhä
huterampi velkarahoitus. Tämän kuplan puhkeaminen tuntuu aikanaan Suomessa
asti.
Eurojohtajat pesivät Washingtonissa kasvojaan
– TalSa
Euroryhmän Dijsselbloem: Pankkiunioni saa
rikkoa EU-lakia tässä vaiheessa – TE
Johtavat talousmaat hoputtavat EU:n
pankkiunionia – TalSa