8th Apr - EU Open: Portugal in crosshair

Europe’s this week’s trouble spot: Portugal. Also, Japan looks like it will remain a cause of volatility, but for the moment it mainly acts as a suppressant of the Europe’s peripheral bond yields. Oh yes, a Soros interview and technical analyst’s club turned 40.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Credit Guest: Big in Japan

Views & Charts

Weekender: Best of the Week

Weekender: Linkfest

Weekender: Weekly Support

Current Specials:

Special: Bank of Japan

Special: US Employment Report (updated)

Special: ECB Watch (updated)

Special: Bailout of Cyprus (updated)

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Roundups

News roundup – Between The Hedges

The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT

Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

MORNING BRIEFINGS

3 Numbers to Watch: EU Sentix, DE Ind. Pro., CB Employment Trend– TradingFloor

The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index is expected to retreat again and Germany's industrial production may rise. Meanwhile, the CB Employment Trend Index for the US will provide more context for assessing last week's sluggish jobs report.

Market Preview: EU confidence & German industrial production eyed – TradingFloor

European markets are expected to open higher Monday. Today, market participants will keep an eye on Eurozone Sentix investor confidence and German industrial production data to gauge the health of the region’s economy.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)

A weak US employment report increased worries about a new soft patch. Long-end Treasury yields dropped significantly and the 10-yield is at its lowest for the year. JPY continues to weaken despite expectations of a Fed QE exit this year being scaled down. Market movers today: German industrial production, Norway credit growth, Q1 earnings releases

Aamukatsaus – Nordea (pdf)

USA:n surkeat työllisyysluvut eivät tarkoita elpymisen pysähtymistä * Portugalin vaihdettava säästökohteita * Korkomarkkinoilla uusia ennätyksiä—useiden euromaiden korot ennätysalhaisiksi

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)

Osakemarkkinoille laskupainetta, kun USA:n perjantainen työmarkkinaraportti oli selvästi odotuksia heikompi. Oriola-KD laajentaa apteekkiketjuaan Ruotsissa yrityskaupalla. Osakefutuurit plussalla, ennakoiden nousuavausta pörssiin. Osinkoja irti osakkeesta tänään: Honkarakenne EUR 0.08. Ulkomaalaisomistusten muutokset OMX HEX:ssä maaliskuussa: Globaalit konepajat sekä defensiiviset osakkeet kiinnostivat, Suomen vähittäiskauppa taas ei. Ostoputkessa: Konecranes, Orion, Ramirent.   Myyntiputkessa: BioTie, Stockmann.

Markkinakalenteri – Nordnet

Markkinakalenteri – Taloussanomat

EUROPE

Draghi – Master of the Universe or just human like the rest of us – TradingFloor

Nick Beecroft: Mario Draghi made another masterful performance at the ECB’s news conference last week. While he delivered soothing words on the Eurozone, it did not tell the full story. Maybe the Master of the Universe is relying on the BOJ to do his job for him. -

Time for the Eurozone to shift gear: Issuing euros to finance new spending – voxeu.org

The crisis in peripheral Europe is deepening and spreading to the core of Europe. This column argues that it’s time for the Eurozone to shift gear. Eurozone members should use the Emergency Liquidity Assistance facility provided for under the statute of the European System of Central Banks to undertake ‘overt money financing’ of government debt. Greater cooperation – for a time – between central banks and fiscal authorities is, despite arguments to the contrary, in no way inconsistent with the independence of the central banks.

EU's Rehn: Big depositors could suffer in future bank bailouts under new law – Reuters

Big bank depositors could take a hit under planned EU law if a bank fails, the EU's economic affairs chief Olli Rehn said on Saturday, but noted that Cyprus's bailout model was exceptional.

  PORTUGAL

Spain, and the threat from Portugal and Cyprus – The World / FT

Gideon Rachman: The refusal of the Portuguese courts to authorise the full version of the latest round of austerity cuts will be watched closely in neighbouring Spain – which is, of course, a bigger and more systemically important economy. The Spanish fear that, economically and politically, Portugal offers a vision of their future.

Portugal ruling poses difficulties for bailout goals: government – Reuters

Portugal's government said on Saturday the constitutional court's rejection of key austerity measures from this year's budget creates "serious difficulties" in meeting international commitments under a bailout.

TMM Translate the Euro Commission Statement on Portugal – Macro Man

Portugal must stick to agreed budget targets to get loan extension -EU exec – Reuters

Portugal must stick to targets agreed with international lenders if it wants more time to repay bailout loans, the European Commission said in a statement on Sunday.

European Commission 'Threatens' Portugal - Get Your Constitutional Court In Line – ZH

  

Two Developments over the Weekend: Portugal and Italy – Marc to Market

In Portugal, after the markets closed on Friday, the Constitutional Court struck down part of the government's austerity measures. In Italy, the caretaker government, confirmed yesterday that it will pay down about half of the debt it owes largely to small and medium businesses for services rendered.

UNITED STATES

Why has the US broad money supply flat-lined in 2013? – Sober Look

The US money indicators have been showing something odd in the last few months. While the monetary base (M0) has been rising sharply due to increasing bank reserves (the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet), the broader money supply has stalled.

ASIA

Japanese FinMin Warns Surge In JGB Volatility May Lead To A Sharp Bond Selloff – ZH

Nikkei 63,000,000 And Other Flashbacks: The Complete Dylan Grice Japan Series – ZH

24-page research note.

Japan Bond Market Halted For Second Day In A Row – ZH

OTHER

Financial crises: Questions and lessons – voxeu.org

Recent financial crises have understandably renewed academic interest in properly understanding their causes and consequences. This column surveys a rapidly growing literature. Although we rudimentarily understand the main types of crisis, their main explanatory factors, and the real and financial sector implications, there remain a number of important open questions for future research.

Interview with George Soros – SCMP

Complete transcript of an interview with George Soros in Hong Kong on April 4, 2013.

FX Comment: last man standing? – Nordea

The weak US data revived the hopes of QE continuation, putting pressue on the USD. IMF gives green light to IMF weakening - chase the carry where it's still left!

Making the Truth Illegal – revisited – Golem XIV

“Making the Truth Illegal” is the title of the only post I have ever removed from this blog. I removed it because I was threatened with legal consequences if I did not.

MTA Symposium 2013 – All Star Charts

The 40th anniversary of the Market Technicians Association.

IN FINNISH

Tämähän on jo kuin teuraskarjan rauhoittelua – Jan Hurri / TalSa

Europäättäjät hokevat, että Kyproksen pankkien saneeraus on poikkeus eikä kriisitoimien uusi malli. Hokemat ovat kuin teuraskarjan rauhoittelua. Kyproksen saneeraus sujuu prikulleen niin kuin valmisteilla olevan EU-direktiivin mukaan pitääkin. Rauhoittelu vihjaa, että päättäjät pelkäävät toden teolla uutta pankkipaniikkia.

Arvostettu taloustieteilijä ennustaa eurolle loppua – HS

Taloustutkija Paul De Grauwen mukaan valuuttaunioni on pysynyt tähän asti kasassa lähinnä siksi, etteivät eurooppalaiset päättäjät halua jäädä historiaan euron hajottajina. Euro hajoaa kymmenessä vuodessa omaan mahdottomuuteensa, arvioi arvostettu belgialainen taloustieteilijä Paul de Grauwe. Hän arvostelee rajusti eurokriisin hoitoa ja on huolissaan demokratiasta.

Portugalista ja vyönkiristelystä – Henri Myllyniemi / Piksu

Ykkösaamu – YLE Areena

Vieraana on EU-komissaari Olli Rehn. Toimittajana on Jari Korkki (6.4.2013)