Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Current Specials:
Special:
Reinhart & Rogoff Debacle (updated)
Roundups &
Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: Record Unemployment And Dropping Inflation Sets Up An ECB
Rate Cut – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Daily press summary – Open
Europe
Internal paper from German finance ministry
blasts French economy; FDP chancellor candidate: France is ‘Europe’s big problem child’
Europe Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat: Stocks, Bonds Go Their Own Way – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
FX: Fire but No Light – Marc to
Market
Morning Briefing
(EU/US): Meet the new boss, same as the old boss – BNY
Mellon
The AUD’s reserve currency status
EUROPE
Joschka Fischer: The
Cyprus crisis revealed the full extent of the political disaster that the
eurozone crisis has wrought: the EU is disintegrating at its core. Europeans’
current crisis of confidence concerning Europe is far more dangerous than renewed market
anxiety, because it cannot be overcome with another liquidity injection by the
ECB.
The Beatings Must Continue – Krugman
/ NYT
OECD’s Mr. Padoan said
the growing perception that austerity has been futile is incorrect. “Fiscal
consolidation is producing results, the pain is producing results,” he said.
EU Social Affairs Commissioner: 'Wages in
Germany Must Increase' – Spiegel
Wages in Germany must
increase and the government should establish a nationwide minimum wage, says EU
Social Affairs Commissioner László Andor. In an interview with a German daily,
he calls for a radical change in policy in the euro crisis and argues for a
shift away from the country's export model.
No Let(ta) up for euro zone – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Italy renounces austerity
Insight: Why did Cypriot banks keep buying
Greek bonds? – Reuters
Cypriots want to know
who decided to plough their savings into the doomed public accounts of their
bigger neighbor, Greece, and why. But answers are proving elusive, not helped
by the mysterious wiping of data at Bank of Cyprus.
France is an economic microcosm to understand why the ECB’s programs of OMT
and LTRO can’t actually solve anything with the Eurozone. As I talked about
back last September the ECB offers liquidity to the banking system via asset
swaps, but if there is no private sector demand for credit, due to private
sector retrenchment, then this will do bugger all to help the economies of
periphery Europe.
Eurogloom – alphaville
/ FT
Euro area unemployment
rate at 12.1%, inflation down to 1.2%
GERMANY
Soros
vs Sinn – alphaville
/ FT
Hans-Werner Sinn — he
of Target2 imbalance fame — had a piece on Project Syndicate last week in which
he stood firm against George Soros and his demands for Germany to leave the
euro if it continues to block the introduction of Eurobonds.
Growth vs. austerity in the German electoral
debate – Nordea
Any difference between
CDU and SPD? Germany is often seen as the country most pushing Southern Europe into a highly restrictive fiscal policy, while
at the same time denying any meaningful stimulus at home.
ECB
The credit matrix – alphaville
/ FT
For one, banks can’t
lend if they can’t find borrowers — although it might be unfair to blame
borrowers who are seeing unappealing terms — and for two, central banks have
poured a fair amount of liquidity out there with more available on tap. Morgan
Stanley and UBS discuss possible solutions.
Negative interest rates – the Danish
experience – Nordea
(pdf)
The ECB faces mounting
pressure to ease monetary policy in the Euro area. In our view, this leaves the
ECB with four options: 1) keep the powder dry and hope for the best: unchanged
rates (60%), 2) the safe choice: narrowing the interest rate corridor by
lowering the refi rate, while keeping the deposit rate unchanged (30%), 3) unknown
territory: lowering both the deposit and lending rates, in the process slashing
the deposit rate to below zero (5%), 4) All in one: launching new
unconventional monetary policy measures while at the same time cutting rates
(5%)
ECB Rate Cut May Not Be a Done Deal – WSJ
OTHER
US jobs data: hints for the global economy – The
A-List / FT
Mohamed El-Erian: After
last week's horrible unemployment numbers from Europe, some may be tempted to
downplay the monthly US jobs report coming out this Friday. That would be a big
mistake. The data will help shed light on four issues that are central to the
wellbeing of both America and the global economy.
FX Hot Picks - EUR support despite ECB this
week – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The oil price bottom is behind us – Nordea
(pdf)
Summary here.