I’m thinking of a
radical change. Instead of continuously posting the regular links, they are now
moved to a permanent page. My standard
posts would thus in the future only have article links and my own thoughts. If
this is ok with you, fine. If not, drop me a message.
Bank secrecy in Europe looks like to be ending… Austria and Luxembourg have resisted, but the tone is changing fast. Also,
Saxo Bank’s Q2-asset class comments are now out.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Current Specials
Special: Bank of Japan (updated)
EUROPE
Taking the pulse of the German economy – Nordea
the economy seems on
track for slow growth in GDP of around 0.25% q/q in Q1. While that is not too
bad compared to many other Euro-area countries, it’s not what one could call a
locomotive for Europe.
The UKIP factor and German politics: All eyes
on Alternative für Deutschland
– Open
Europe
While we are not
expecting it to cross the 5% threshold in September's federal elections - not
even close - with polls between the CDU/CSU and FDP vs the SPD and Greens as
tight as they are, AfD's electoral result could have a huge bearing on the
nature of any coalition government that emerges from the elections
Split Austrian government ready for EU talks on
bank secrecy – Reuters
Austria will join Luxembourg for talks with the European Union on how to
crack down on cross-border tax cheats, Chancellor Werner Faymann said on
Tuesday, signaling an easing of its hardline stance on bank secrecy.
Luxembourg undecided on bank data exchange
deal: finance minister – Reuters
Luxembourg is considering ending its bank secrecy rules
by automatically handing over details of bank account holders to other European
Union states, its finance minister said on Tuesday.
PIIGS
Yet again the eurozone crisis is butting heads
with national democracy – Open
Europe
After a lengthy
absence Portugal returned to the headlines over the weekend
with the Constitutional
Court
ruling that some of the government austerity measures were unconstitutional.
Spain is less likely
to need a sovereign bailout now than it was in October as funding costs have
fallen since then, Moody’s Investors Service said.
UNITED STATES
Bernanke Says Fed to Press Banks to Curb
Liquidity Risk – BB
Fed plans to avert
strains in the banking system by pushing financial companies to better manage
liquidity risk and reduce reliance on wholesale funding.
ASIA
OTHER
The golden rule for foreign exchange – TradingFloor
My core views in FX
have not changed, I have a preference for USD and GBP over EUR and JPY, and
expect this theme to continue. However, the additional complexity of the
Japanese ‘yield grab’ has altered correlations and increased volatility.
Q2 Insights: The end of the free ride – TradingFloor
Three months into 2013
and we see growth being lowered and fiscal deficit outlooks increased by all
Club Med countries, plus France and Germany. The IMF has lowered world growth and we are
looking at a 2013 that is a mirror image of 2011 and 2012.
Q2 Macro Insights: Modest uptick in growth – TradingFloor
The low-growth
environment continues in developed economies and is not expected to be much
stronger this year as several economies engage in fiscal consolidation, notably
in peripheral Euro area economies, but also in the US.
Q2 FX Insights: Trees still don’t grow to the
sky – TradingFloor
Risk appetite
sentiment will likely falter in Q2. And this perhaps is due to three reasons:
seasonality, worries over the US Federal Reserve slowing the liquidity gravy
train and ongoing European Union woes.
Q2 Equity Insights: Another positive year – TradingFloor
The US remains our top pick among all the developed
equity markets simply because it has been by far the best in navigating the
financial crisis.
Q2 Commodity Insights: Tail-end risks leave
little room to upside – TradingFloor
The exuberance of the
New Year may have abated, with gold suffering its first back-to-back quarter
losses since 2001, but commodities in general could rise slightly in the second
quarter.