Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Current Specials:
Special: US Q1-2013 GDP (new)
Special:
Reinhart & Rogoff Debacle (updated)
UNITED STATES
American Austerity, An Update – Krugman
/ NYT
Better than expected, but
worse than last month
MONETARY VS. FISCAL POLICY
The Fed versus fiscal
policy.
Introducing the “reverse Volcker moment” – El-Erian
/ FT via snbchd.com
The reverse Volcker
moment implies that the Fed continues with unconventional measures to support
growth and employment even if inflation shows up. The Volcker moment in 1982
did exactly the opposite: It aimed to destroy inflation even if growth and
employment were harmed.
The great economic experiment of 2013: Ben
Bernanke vs. austerity – Wonkblog
/ WP
If you look at
macroeconomic policy since last fall, there have been two big moves. The
Federal Reserve has committed to much bolder action in adopting the Evans Rule
and QE3. At the same time, the country has entered a period of fiscal
austerity. Was the Fed action enough to offset the contraction?
Can the Fed offset contractionary fiscal
policy? – Free
exchange / The Economist
We could get close to
a proper experiment if the Fed explicitly expressed a goal of above-target
inflation (or, better still, a level of nominal output consistent with some
catch-up growth) and declared its willingness to do what it took to get there.
If it did that and failed to hit the announced goal then we could say with
reasonable confidence that fiscal policy trumps monetary policy. Maybe we'll
get that but we probably won't.
Reinhart and Rogoff aren’t the problem. The
Republican Party is. – Wonkblog
/ WP
The real debate right
now is with a Republican Party that won’t permit any more stimulus, won’t
permit any more deficit reduction if it includes tax revenues, and won’t even
permit the federal government to make it easier for people to refinance their
homes. That’s a position that often gets called “austerity,” and so cloaks
itself in the work of more serious deficit hawks, but it’s actually something
very different, and much less coherent. And it’s not the position of Reinhart
and Rogoff, or Krugman, or even Joe Scarborough. In fact, it’s not even
obviously bridgeable with the positions of Reinhart, Rogoff and Krugman.
The Medium Term Is Not The Message – Krugman
/ NYT
We are not going to
have a deal that trades short-term stimulus for medium-term deficit reduction.
Na ga ha pen. And for a good reason, too: our political parties have
fundamentally different visions of what kind of country we should have, and
neither is feeling politically weak enough to agree to lock in any of the other
side’s vision.
It has long been known
that women's exclusion from the Japanese corporate system is one of the main
things holding back Japan.
With deflation in BOJ's crosshairs, the yen is
sure to weaken further – Sober
Look
BoJ sees good things, everywhere… – alphaville
/ FT
It's been a big day
for the Bank of Japan. The QE programme was re-affirmed, as expected, and inflation
and growth forecasts were raised, including a new 2015 CPI forecast of 1.9 per
cent. It all looks thoroughly positive -- especially if you ignore all the
assumptions.
Stephen S. Roach: China doubters around the world have been quick to
pounce on slower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of this year.
But slower growth is actually good for China – provided that it reflects the
long-awaited shift to an economic structure that draws greater support from
domestic private consumption.