Week's main events are the Thu-Fri IMF- and G20-meetings. Dull calendar, so headlines from Europe (remember Friday's gold?) and Japan (today's ex-Soros-aide) dominate. Technical trading it is, then. The earnings season in US is now on, disappointments probable, which could break the mood in other risk markets (yen and bonds). China's Q1 GDP below expectations.
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Current Specials
Roundups
News roundup – Between The
Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging Markets
Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: NY Fed manufacturing, NAHB
housing, EURUSD – TradingFloor
Modest declines are
expected in today’s US updates on the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index
and the NAHB Housing Market Index. Weak numbers may provide fresh support for
the recent EURUSD rally.
Market Preview: Chinese GDP disappoints; EU
trade balance eyed – TradingFloor
Dismal Chinese GDP
data for the first quarter is likely to lead European markets mostly lower at
Monday's open. With a relatively light economic calendar, investors will keep
an eye on Eurozone trade balance and US NAHB housing data for further cues.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Chinese GDP and
industrial production disappoint. Equity markets and bond yields lower on soft
data. China and US to work together in North Korea crisis. EU extends loan to
Ireland and Portugal. Focus today on US Empire index and NAHB housing index
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan talous
arvioitua heikommassa vedossa * Slovenia kestää * USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut
jäivät odotuksista
Aamukatsaus – Tapiola
(pdf)
Osakemarkkinoille laskupainetta perjantaina
USA:n heikoista makroluvuista ja aamulla julkaistuista.Kiinan odotuksia
heikommista Q1 BKT -luvuista. Kullan ja hopean hinnassa erittäin voimakas lasku
viikon aluksi. Stockmannin ja Keskon maaliskuun myynti heikkoa. Osinkoja irti
osakkeesta tänään: Teleste EUR 0.17. Osakefutuurit nollassa, ennakoiden
tasaista avausta pörssiin.
EUROPE
When Can We All Admit the Euro is an Economic
Failure? – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
How high does
unemployment need to rise, how much output needs to be lost, how much poverty
must be endured before European policymakers realize that the policymakers see
that the framework supporting the Euro politcally is an economic failure?
Our view: Exiting the euro is a debate we must
have – Cyprus
Mail
German 'Wise Men' push for wealth seizure to
fund EMU bail-outs – The
Telegraph
Two top advisers to
German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called for a tax on private wealth and
property in eurozone debtor states to force the rich to fund rescue costs,
marking a radical new departure for EMU crisis strategy.
Peak Recovery? – ZH
The strength of the
recovery of US equity prices since the 'end' of the recession is equalled only
by the post-1982 recovery. The path of recovery so far is eerily similar also.
The chart below shows just what happens next - an insance melt-up followed by a
purge unlike any other. 1987 deja-vu can't happen all over again?
The Bank of Japan’s
“huge bet” by boosting quantitative easing won’t turn the economy around and is
instead sending the nation toward default, said Takeshi Fujimaki, former
adviser to billionaire investor George Soros.
CHINA GDP
Weak GDP questions
strength of recovery – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Growth disappoints – Nordea
At 7.7% missed
estimates, looks even... – alphaville / FT
Growth risks in focus
as first quarter data falls short – Reuters
Growth Loses Momentum
in Blow to Global Expansion – BB
OTHER
Why a Dual Mandate is Essential – mainly
macro
Monetary policy has
two crucial roles. The first is to set the medium/long term inflation rate.
Pretty well everyone understands this. The economy will not by itself settle
down to an inflation rate of 2% or whatever - it needs monetary policy to set
this rate and help achieve it. The second is to ensure that aggregate demand
matches aggregate supply.
Global equity
valuations (MSCI World 1Y Forward P/E) have been highly correlated with G10
Macro Surprises. What should be very clear is the fact that Macro turns lead
equity valuation adjustments (red arrows then blue arrows). What is more
disconcerting is the current disconnect is very reminiscent of the levels and
divergence that occurred in 2008...
Great Graphic: Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt – Marc
to Market
"Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps
and Early Lessons" – IMF
16-17 April,
conference will be webcast LIVE,
Two Weekend Developments – Marc
to Market
1) The largest drop in
gold prices in two months…ECB President Draghi's insisted that the proceeds of
the gold sales be used to cover the assets of the Emergency Lending Assistance
(ELA) program….2) US Treasury's semi-annual report on the foreign exchange
market.
FINNISH
Teollisuuden
liikevaihto supistui marras-tammik. vajaat 6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelualojen
liikevaihto kasvoi marras-tammik. 2,7% YoY – Tilastokeskus