BEFORE
There is always some
randomness to the employment report, but my guess is the BLS will report
somewhat below the consensus of 193,000 jobs added in March.
The consensus from a
Reuters poll of 71 economists is for 200,000 jobs to have been created in
March. The strong forecasts come on the back of the 236,000 jobs gained in
February when economists had predicted only 160,000. That may be too hard to
realise especially since data since then has thrown enough reasons to doubt a
strong rebound.
Nonfarm payrolls preview: Disappointment lurks? – TradingFloor
The US economy has been remarkably resilient so far
this year and available labour market related data eased in March, so we expect
an increase of 150,000 in nonfarm payrolls.
3 Numbers to Watch: EU retail sales, US jobs and
trade balance – TradingFloor
American employers
hired at the slowest pace in nine months in March, a sign that Washington's austerity drive could be stealing momentum
from the economy.
Employers hired fewer
workers than forecast in March and a slump in the size of the labor force
pushed the jobless rate down to a four-year low, indicating the U.S. job market is struggling to make bigger
strides.
Five Takeaways From Today’s Jobs Report – WSJ
Grim news all around -
Trend heading in the wrong direction - Forward-looking indicators more mixed - Housing
rebound continues - Tough road for the unemployed.
(audio) Analysis: Some Positive Trends in Weak Jobs
Report – WSJ
Jobs Report: Winners and Losers – WSJ
Poor North American Jobs Report Sends USD and
CAD Lower – Marc
to Market
Nonfarm Payrolls' Growth Slows Sharply In March – The
Capital Spectator
Biggest Miss Since December 2009, Participation
Rate At New 30 Year Low – ZH
Market Responds To NFP - Great Rotation To
Safety – ZH
People Not In Labor Force Soar By 663,000 To 90
Million, Labor Force Participation Rate At 1979 Levels – ZH
Real March Unemployment Rate: 11.6% – ZH
March Employment Report: 88,000 Jobs, 7.6%
Unemployment Rate – Calculated
Risk
Today's jobs report is a disaster. But why? – Wonkblog
/ WP
This economy isn’t as strong as we thought it was. What had seemed to
be a nice winter acceleration in activity may be, as it has been for the
last three years, undermined by a spring-summer swoon.
Austerity bites? – Free
exchange / The Economist
And to some extent,
this report simply drags expectations back to where they were early in the
year, when it was anticipated that fiscal policy would meaningfully slow growth
in the first half of the year but allow for an improvement later on. If surprisingly
good numbers led some to believe that the American economy could shake cuts off
without any effect, then perhaps they were a bit overoptimistic. Hopefully just
a bit.
The March jobs report, in seven charts – Wonkblog
/ WP
Don’t Blame Federal Budget Cuts for Weak Jobs,
Yet – WSJ
US
Payrolls miss big time – TradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: There is no doubt that
Nonfarm payrolls in March were terrible, though revisions to previous months
were positive. The pattern is just like in previous years, with negative
surprises coming soon after the new year.
Flash Comment US: labour market tanks – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Jobs Report Reinforces Fed Wariness About
Premature End to QE3 – WSJ
Jobs +88k, Unemployment Rate 7.6%, Household
Survey Employment Drops by 206k
– Mish’s
US Payroll Job Growth Slows; Unemployment Rate
Drops as Labor Force Shrinks –
EconoMonitor
Jobs Report: The
Wonks Really Blew This One – WSJ
Economists expected 200,000 jobs were added last month. The actual
number came in at 88,000, making the divergence the biggest jobs miss since
June 2011.
Labor Market Hits Air
Pocket
– Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Another in a long line of employment reports that suggests the much
hoped-for acceleration in job growth remains out of reach. Nothing to suggest the Federal Reserve needs
to slow the pace of asset purchases in the near future. Williams' expectation that tapering off of
purchases as early as this summer remains puzzling.
Employment Report Comments and more Graphs – Calculated
Risk
Overall this was a
weak report, but there were a few positives including the upward revisions to
the January and February reports, the decline in the long term unemployed, and
the decline in part time workers to list a few.
Labor Market Update: Muddy Waters Continue to
Run Deep – Atlanta
Fed Macro Blog
U.S.
Employment Situation – March 2013 – Global
Macro Monitor
Non-farm payrolls up 88,000 in March; much
weaker than expected – Handelsbanken
BLS Jobs Report Covering March 2013: Blah Trend
Numbers but Some Seasonal Strength Although Not As Good As Previous Years – Corrente
Number of the Week: Youth Unemployment at
22.9%? – WSJ
The unemployment rate
for Americans under age 25, adjusting for the decline in the labor force since
the start of the recession.
The March jobs report shows continued slow
growth, bought at great cost –
Fabius Maximus
The news media focuses
on the month-to-month changes in the jobs report, which consist mostly of
noise. Strong months confirm the optimists; weak months confirm the pessimists.
The trend of growth remains the real story, with the US economy near stall speed — supported only
(like the other developed nations) by massive multi-year fiscal and monetary
stimulus. Slow growth bought at great cost. A cost we cannot long continue to
pay, borrowing and squandering the money ($ which instead could be rebuilding America). Just like Japan since 1989.
Graphs for Construction Employment, Duration of
Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes – Calculated
Risk
US Employment
(Excerpt) – Dr
Ed’s Blog
I wasn’t disappointed by Friday’s employment report because I don’t pay
all that much attention to the preliminary payroll estimate for the latest
month, which was only 88,000 for March. Rather, I give much more weight to the
regular revisions in the previous two months' payrolls, which were both
increased by a total of 61,000 for January and February.
Charts du jour, labour force participation kill
the old edition – alphaville
/ FT
Structural Employment Problems – Big
Picture
Weak Jobs Report Is Sign of Weak Jobs Report.
Period. – View
/ BB
Vanishing workforce weighs on growth – WP
Handicapping Labor Data – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
I had expected that
the data flow would argue for the Fed to postpone tapering off QE purchases
until late this year. The Fed seems to
have a different view, thinking that the data flow argues for ending QE by the
end of this year. My expectation is that
the Fed is being overly optimistic and will find that summer is too early to
being tapering off QE. That seems to be
the message from the bond market as well; yields aren't exactly soaring.
Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls – Calculated
Risk
…it appears job
openings leads non-farm payroll at turning points.