A reminder to see my Greek Exit Collection from last Sunday. A Best of The Week coming up shortly, the usual weekender posts tomorrow. For the daily briefs, see my earlier post.Harald Uhlig: 1) Italy’s interest burden unmanageable 2) austerity is disaster, growth requires spending 3) ECB avoided Europe’s disaster with LTRO
Pardon The Interruption, "Debt Crisis To Resume Shortly" – ZH
Deutsche Bank: growth in the periphery will continue to disappoint the consensus for many quarters and years to come and that the sovereign crisis will continue after what might be a benign first few months or even first half of the year.François Hollande Versus the German Dictate – Testosterone Pit
So Sarkozy and Merkel appear to have made a pact. In return for his support for all of her debt-crisis remedies, she would campaign for him to prevent Hollande from becoming the next President of France.
The End of the Road? – openeurope
Sarkozy’s chances to win the presidency look bad.
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
The Greek bailout saga: another delay in store? – Saxo
Steen Jakobsen: three options left: 1) bridge loan to get over 20-Mar 2) soft default 3) hard default and Grexit. Probable choice is buying time.
Default experts: the Greek sovereign debt gods – Reuters
When a bankrupt Mexico stopped repaying foreign loans in 1861 after three years of civil war, Great Britain, France and Spain responded by invading the Mexican harbour of Veracruz.
Evans-Pritchard: Officials from the EU and the International Monetary Fund made two grave errors when they swooped into Greece in mid-2010 and dictated the now hated "Memorandum".
There is no question that a Greek exit from the euro would be convulsive and impose enormous costs on the Greek economy and its people. But will those costs be any higher than if Greece stays on its current path? That question is far from settled.
We are entering a zone of probability distributions at this point, where actions stop having foreseeable consequences. No one’s really in charge, which doesn’t help.
The second Greek bailout: Ten unanswered questions – openeurope
Realistically only some of the open issues will be resolved in time, and Greece’s future will depend on whether AAA countries politically want to approve the bailout.
Welcome to Choose Your Own Troika Program For Greece! You are a junior member of the One World Government, and you have been given the job of coming up with a proposal to resolve the Greek crisis.
Liaising With The Right People? – openeurope
Athens' public creditors seem to have lost touch with the political reality in Greece. And the reality is that, as the two 'mainstream' parties are increasingly seen as mere executors of the requests coming from the EU, Germany, France and others, the Greek electorate is moving towards the extremes of the political spectrum.
PODCASTS
Morgan Stanley’s Redeker Sees QE Coming From ECB – BB (mp3)
Nomura’s Zentner Says Fed Titling Toward More QE – BB (mp3)
Nielsen Discusses ECB Refinance Operation – BB (mp3)
Barclays’s Pond Says Investors Still Avoiding Risk – BB (mp3)
OTHER
While You Were Sleeping, Central Banks Flooded The World In Liquidity – ZH
Morgan Stanley reviews the global central bank policies: The Great Monetary Easing (Part 2), is in full swing
Morgan Stanley reviews the global central bank policies: The Great Monetary Easing (Part 2), is in full swing
Secular Demographic Shift To Impair Equity Multiples And Bond Prices – ZH
Credit Suisse takes a nice look at demographic horrors in line for the stock market.
Credit Suisse takes a nice look at demographic horrors in line for the stock market.
Resurging North American Oil Production and the Death of the Peak Oil Hypothesis – Citigroup (pdf)