To honor the US market holiday, in addition to the usual euro crisis- and market-related links, plenty of off-topics as well:
Eurogroup press conference Scheduled to start at 23:00 CET
Eurogroup press conference Scheduled to start at 23:00 CET
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
EZ crisis press summary – openeurope
Second bailout still short of satisfying Greek funding needs; IMF reduces its share of second Greek bailout
Euro Area Leaders Consider Greek Exit at Their Own Peril – View / BB
Greece and Portugal need a lot more debt relief to get their finances and economies on track, banks need to raise hundreds of billions of euros in capital to restore confidence, and only an overwhelming guarantee fund -- more than 3 trillion euros, by our estimate -- will protect solvent governments from speculative attack. Keeping the euro together will be costly. It will also be a lot cheaper than the alternative.
Germany has indicated it remains against boosting the eurozone's bail-out funds, despite it being the expected quid pro quo after 24 other EU member states signed up to the Berlin-pushed 'fiscal compact treaty - but its position may change after a key vote in the Bundestag end of February.
The case for ECB debt certificates – alphaville / FT
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, 58, says it was a mistake to bring all the southern European countries into the common currency. He also argues that Greece should be granted a "sabbatical" from the euro and that a United States of Europe may take shape far sooner than many believe.
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Greece’s unemployment bomb has detonated. After a deceptive calm, the surge in job losses since last summer is shocking even for those who never believed that combined fiscal and monetary contraction could possibly lead to any result other than ruin.
Metaphors to while the night away – alphaville / FT
Gabriel Sterne / Exotix: The key reason why the type of default matters is the impact it has on confidence contagion, within and beyond Greece. And (working backwards) we think the main channel of contagion that could be impacted is through a deposit run on Greek banks.
Latest PSI Terms Leaked; Imply Greek Redefault Within 2 Years – ZH
…market is saying that Greece will last at best about a year following the debt exchange (if it ever even happens) before the country redefaults. Oh, and by the way, the fact that creditors just got even more bent over, just assures that Greece can kiss the 75% threshold for PSI acceptance goodbye. Hello CACs, and CDS trigger.
…market is saying that Greece will last at best about a year following the debt exchange (if it ever even happens) before the country redefaults. Oh, and by the way, the fact that creditors just got even more bent over, just assures that Greece can kiss the 75% threshold for PSI acceptance goodbye. Hello CACs, and CDS trigger.
Greece will need additional relief if it is to cut its debts to 120 percent of GDP by 2020 and if it doesn't follow through on structural reforms and other measures, its debt could hit 160 percent by 2020, a debt sustainability report by the IMF, ECB and EC shows.
Dash for trash, Hellenic edition – alphaville / FT
Another uncertain meeting... – openeurope
Ahead of another meeting of eurozone finance ministers there are still plenty of issues which need to be resolved if Greece is to get underway with its second bailout plan.
JAPAN
Japan Posts Record Trade Deficit in January, 4th Consecutive Deficit Month – Mish’s
While rising imports may still be blamed on the tsunami, the collapse in exports has a different reason. Europe is in a major slowdown and more US consumers are happy with GM and Ford autos. This does not bode well for Japan.
Yen Livens Up at Last – The Source / WSJ
EMERGING
Chart of the week: oil dependency – beyondbrics / FT
Steen Jakobsen’s letter
Thai GDP: over the worst – beyondbrics / FT
Thailand’s GDP shrank 10.7 per cent in the fourth quarter – way more than the 5 per cent predicted by most economists.
Thailand’s GDP shrank 10.7 per cent in the fourth quarter – way more than the 5 per cent predicted by most economists.
Russian banks: S&P reality check – beyondbrics / FT
Title of new report: “Russia’s top 30 banks need further capitalisation and lack the means to improve in the foreseeable future”.
STOCK MARKETS
A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom As It Relates To Investment Management & Business – The Big Picture
Charles Munger’s 1994 speech
If history is any indication, high dividend stock outperformance should continue – Sober Look
Based on the similarities between the post WW-II period and now, this high dividend stock outperformance should continue until the Fed ends the period of easy monetary policy.
OTHER
Is It Time to Start Worrying About Inflation Again? – TIME
The greatest threat to any long-term investor is inflation. It not only erodes the value of stocks and bonds, but also depresses economic growth and misleads policymakers.
Could the American government default? – Free exchange / The Economist
Default on the debt in real terms via inflation, default in nominal terms or break the promises made to future benefit recipients. Not an appealing menu but an indication of the likely political battles over the next 10-20 years.
Good and Bad Deficits – Project Syndicate
Robert Skidelsky: Government deficits incurred on current spending for services or transfers are bad, because they produce no revenue and add to the national debt. Deficits resulting from capital spending, by contrast, are – or can be – good.
OFF-TOPIC
John Fairfax, Who Rowed Across Oceans, Dies at 74 – NYT
Book Bits For Saturday – The Capital Spectator
FiveBooks Interviews: Sam Bourne on Classic Thrillers – The Browser
The bestselling author of The Righteous Men tells us how his other job as a political journalist helps with thriller writing, and what makes le Carré, Forsyth and Buchan such masters of their trade
Another March to War? – Rolling Stones
Matt Taibbi: “Any country that squawks when we threaten to bomb it is a threat that needs to be wiped out.” Maybe I’m mistaken, but I have to believe that there was a time when ideas like that sounded weird to the American ear. Now they seem to make sense to almost everyone here at home, and that to me is just as a scary as Ahmadinejad.
A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web! – Simoleon Sense
Goldman Sachs P.R. Chief’s Accidental Exit Interview – DealBook / NYT
He probably spoke longer and deeper than he intended.
He probably spoke longer and deeper than he intended.
‘Superinvestor’ Walter Schloss Dies at 95 – BB
What can we learn from Sun Tzu's Art of War? – Barking up the wrong tree
Quick summary of the classic.
Is the Web Closing? – Project Syndicate
Esther Dyson: Within the tech community, there is much angst about whether the Web is about to be “closed.” Will it be controlled by companies like Apple, Facebook, and Google, or will it remain “open” to all?
Civil War Said To Have Broken Out At Top Firm – HITC
(RBS) Mass sackings, fist fights, police raids, zero bonuses, it's all there apparently.
Alberto Seveso’s beautiful photos of colored fluids
Aqueous – behance.net
Aqueous II - The Sequel – behance.net
Wallpapers – thisiscolossal.com