Very bad morning for quality articles: Facebook probably stole the day for all the journalists and half the bloggers in the world. Nice piece from Deutsche Bank, though. At least they understand that the currency union was and is, well, a political idea that does is not working in reality.
I'm seriously thinking of writing a Facebook post, but try to fight the urge. Company whose products everyone uses already - no user growth in future. Earnings 1bn, and 12% of that comes from Zynga games. Market cap of 100bn would give a P/E ratio of 100. The real question: is Facebook a growth company, or WAS it a growth company? The float is around 5bn, and there are a lot of potential sellers. What's the holdout period for old owners, 6 months? Of course, it is a buy. Everyone will want theirs.
News – BTH
News – The Trader
Morning Briefing – BNY Mellon
Despite Japan's terrible debt dynamics and brewing crisis, it is destined to be burdened with a strong currency. And possibly a strengthening currency.
Despite Japan's terrible debt dynamics and brewing crisis, it is destined to be burdened with a strong currency. And possibly a strengthening currency.
Daily – Danske (pdf)
Market Preview – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Euroland’s Hidden Balance-of-Payments Crisis – The Daily Capitalist
Deutsche Bank’s research: Below the surface of the euro area‘s public debt and banking crisis lies a balance-of-payments crisis caused by a misalignment of internal real exchange rates… With representatives of debtor countries holding a majority of votes in the ECB’s Governing Council, a policy of easy money and exchange rate depreciation that leads to overheating in the creditor countries seems most likely.
French election poised to become referendum on fiscal union pact – The Telegraph
Angela Merkel is ready to ride to Nicolas Sarkozy's rescue after the French presidential election on Tuesday become a referendum on a controversial fiscal union pact to save the euro.
EURO CRISIS: BANK LENDING
Tightening lending standards vary materially across the Eurozone – Sober Look
From yesterday’s ECB report. Tightening and the level of “peripheriness” go hand in hand – even France is getting tighter, while Germany completely unaffected.
Vicious Cycles Persist As Global Lending Standards Tighten – ZH
Bank of America: bank lending standards to corporates have tightened globally in Q4 2011 and the picture is ubiquitously consistent across the US, Europe, and Emerging Markets.
Bank of America: bank lending standards to corporates have tightened globally in Q4 2011 and the picture is ubiquitously consistent across the US, Europe, and Emerging Markets.
Bank survey highlights EU economic gloom – euobserver.com
OTHER
Entering the Intervention Zone – Bruce Krasting
CHF and JPY near levels where intervention is expected. Why is the market getting so close to the levels, if intervention is expected?
Sovereign ratings when default can come explicitly or via inflation – voxeu.org
Inflation in the UK is now more than double that of France, but only one country has had its credit rating downgraded. This column argues that government credit ratings should be aided by a second rating measuring the potential loss of real value, whether by inflation or default.
Dodd-Frank in One Graph – Businessweek
Big portions of the financial reform law are set to go into effect this year. Intended to make corporate practices transparent, the law itself is anything but. The government has yet to spell out the details of most of the 400 new regulations it imposes. A non-headache-inducing guide.
January Employment Report Preview – A Dash of Insight