All Stratfor content is free for now. After they got cyberbombed, they are trying to build some trust. Show them some respect by reading their stuff for free. I originally thought I am not going to follow Facebook at all, but you know how it is with Facecrack – “one more refresh”. In normal links: something strange was going on with Italy - Morgan Stanley has figured a way to get sovereign state to actually pay up, apparently. As this is what everyone else wants, this could attract some attention and action. The rest is pretty standard stuff, though the breakup guide from alphaville was pretty cool.
To the links:
News – BTH
Markets – BTH
Recap – GMT
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
The German view of the crisis – The World / FT Treaty a good step in right direction, firewalls do not solve the problem, Sarkozy makes them somewhat uncomfortable, scared of anti-German rhetoric, worried what happens if Greece again fails promises, Portugal is not Greece.
The Germans are caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, Germany is the last country in Europe that could afford general austerity in troubled states and the resulting decline in demand. On the other hand, it cannot simply tolerate Greek-style indifference to fiscal prudence
New treaty, same old flaws – Fatasmihov
It is very difficult to see the differences with the current economic policy framework. And, unfortunately, all the flaws of the previous system are still there.
Democracy and markets: Misinformed voters – Free exchange / The Economist
The answer is not, I hasten to add, to pass decision-making to EU commissioners in Brussels. The tough part is to try and make sure that voters, many of whom are uninterested in politics, are as well informed as possible about the issues being decided.
Results of the January 2012 bank lending survey for the euro area – ECB (pdf)
Net tightening of credit standards by euro area banks surged in the fourth quarter of 2011 for credit standards on both loans to non-financial corporations (35% in net terms, up from 16% in the preceding quarter) and loans to households for house purchase (29%, up from 18% in the preceding quarter), and to a lesser extent on consumer credit (13%, up from 10% in the preceding quarter).
EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
Breaking up is hard to do — but here goes, anyway – alphaville / FT
Guide for breakup from someone who actually warned about the current crisis in 2009. Interesting hints: non-exiters should print a new currency to limit a large inflow of “old” money from the exiting country.
Guide for breakup from someone who actually warned about the current crisis in 2009. Interesting hints: non-exiters should print a new currency to limit a large inflow of “old” money from the exiting country.
Morgan Stanley’s most mysterious footnote — Part 1 – alphaville / FT
MS’s Q4 footnote says net exposure to Italy from $4.9bn to $1.5bn. What happened? They got Italy to to place collateral and or pay up their open losses? (sovereigns usually do not post collateral). Problem is, paying the open losses or placing collateral weakens Italy’s debt metrics and now others might want to want to have the same treatment…
Morgan Stanley’s most mysterious footnote — Part 2 – alphaville / FT
More speculation what happened. Position moved to a third party,
How To Read A Greek Debt Deal – MarketBeat / WSJ
Any suggestion that the ECB would somehow participate would be a significant boost to confidence for other troubled European bond markets… One of the concerns around the market is that when the (ECB) buys Italian bonds, they become senior creditors to the sovereign, which means the rest of the bond holders would have to take the entirety of the pain should Italy to see a restructuring.
The “improvement” seen in the past couple of days is probably because of “basis trades” (buying bond and buying CDS protection simultaneously).
Eurozone periphery deficits improve, but it's a tough road ahead – Sober Look
Unfortunately the improvement may be fleeting as the GDP of these nations begins to decline, driven by austerity measures and tight credit conditions.
Exodus from the Eurozone Debt Crisis – Testosterone Pit
People are moving abroad for work.
FACEBOOK
Prospectus of Facebook – SEC
The Definitive Who’s Who Guide to Facebook Wealth – whoownsfacebook.com
Short bios of the people and the companies holding stock, including how and why they became partners. Financial porn, but interesting.
Pre-filing Facebook IPO linkfest – Abnormal Returns
Facebook Set to File For $5 Billion IPO Wednesday: Report – TIME
Tracking Facebook’s Valuation – DealBook / NYT
Facebook Files for an I.P.O. – DealBook / NYT
With IPO, Facebook’s Valuation Could Reach $100 Billion – TIME
Is Google In Danger of Being Shut Out of the Changing Internet? – TIME
Facebook IPO: Should You Invest In It? – Market/Beat / WSJ
Questions you should ask before buying Facebook shares – Saxo
OTHER
It’s the Years, Not The Mileage: Pension Reforms in Advanced Economies – iMFdirect
Our analysis shows that gradually raising retirement ages could help countries contain increases in pension spending and boost economic growth. Further cuts in pension benefits, or raising payroll contributions, are also options countries could consider, although many countries will find many advantages in raising retirement ages.
How to resist manipulation to spend too much money – Barking up the wrong tree
What's a trick for appearing more credible? – Barking up the wrong tree