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Wednesday, February 29

29th Feb - After LTRO comes the pain

Source: Finviz. Join it, it is good.
If you are after the LTRO updates after today's main event, check my continuously updated LTRO: The Ultimate Collection and scroll way down to the bottom. What did I tell you? I told you that LTRO is what you want it to be and warned about the EURUSD. It's happening already. Oh, almost forgot, the calendar is updated.

Bernanke says ECB well-capitalized: ZH
EZ Crisis: Daily Press Summary - openeurope
  Ireland to hold a referendum on European ‘fiscal treaty’; Irish Deputy PM: Only a ‘Yes’ vote would allow Ireland to tap eurozone bailout fund in future

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT


EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Research Euro area: "What to watch" in the coming monthsDanske Bank (pdf)

Germany Will Force Greece Out or Walk… Either Way a Collapse is ComingGPC
Germany is in a great squeeze. On one side the ECB and G20 want Germany to step up with more money to save Europe. On the other hand, German CEOs, voters, and even the courts, are increasingly wanting out of the Euro. This is not a situation that gives one much confidence that Germany will stick around for too much longer. It is my view Germany is going to do all it can to force Greece out of the Euro before March 20th

EURO CRISIS: PIIGS
Why Portugal Credit Writedowns
Portugal’s aid package assumes it can return to the capital markets in the second half of last year. This seems less likely with each passing day.

A Strange Graph – In More Ways Than OneTF Market Advisors
The Italian bond yield curve and CDS prices. CDS prices less convinced with the SMP. Should we trust CDS’s more, as they are more mark-to-market and clever?

Greek Bank Deposit Outflows Soar In January, Third Largest EverZH

ECB Said to Buy Portuguese Gov’t BondsBB
Italy’s Monti Signals Euro Crisis Abating
BB

OTHER
Strategic Briefing: Politics & Economic StimulusThe Capital Spectator
Summaries and links to nine recent articles / papers.

CDS demonization watch, central-clearing editionFelix Salmon / Reuters
the size of a bank’s derivatives obligations is unrelated to whether those obligations are settled bilaterally or centrally. If a bank has written so much credit protection that it becomes insolvent, then there’s significant systemic counterparty risk regardless of how its derivatives trades are cleared.

The international monetary system: The role of goldFree exchange / The Economist
Chatham House experts do not view a formal role for gold as likely… does see a continued role for gold as a part of central bank reserves although that is hardly a surprise. There is a limit, given the metal's lack of liquidity, to the proportion of reserves it can form.

Confessions of a Reformed StockbrokerBusinessweek
Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker-blogger interviewed.

QE3 Or Not To Be, A Brief Q & AZH
Morgan Stanley: taking the unwanted risk off the private sector balance sheet and replacing it with safe as well as liquid assets: central banks’ own liabilities. This is, in essence, a confidence trick.

Goldman's Take On Bernanke: "No Clear Easing Signal"ZH

The Case for a Managed Float under Inflation TargetingiMFdirect
Is inflation targeting compatible with stable exchange rate? FX intervention together with the policy rate might be “having your cake and eating it”.

Investors should ignore the rustles in the undergrowthJohn Kay
…who could dispute the merits of disclosure and transparency? You can never have too much information. But you can. There are costs to providing information, which is why these obligations have proved unpopular with companies. There are also costs entailed in processing information – even if the only processing you undertake is to recognise that you want to discard it.

Space opera, beyond finance editionalphaville / FT
How about more currencies in the world – maybe billions? Or prices becoming a function of who you are? Technology is changing the markets, and maybe even more than we would currently believe.

OFF-TOPIC
The Interview Shame Thread - Dealbreaker

Ocean trench: Take a dive 11,000m downBBC

Securitate in all but name (Aug 2009)signandsight.com
Twenty years after Ceausescu's execution his secret service is still active. For the first time, Romanian-German writer Herta Müller describes her ongoing experience of Securitate terror. (She won the Literature Nobel in 2009)