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Thursday, February 23

23rd Feb - Olli's Charts

SocGen: earnings expectations just like in...
LTRO getting closer - while the Greek details are still undone. What happens after the demand for bonds eligible for LTRO collateral runs out? Where will the demand to replace the one-off LTRO come? The only possibility is either coercion or a threat of new LTRO's in the not-too distant future. A special post on the acronym beast coming up this weekend. You can follow me on Twitter or Facebook and email me for suggestions and requests. I also have an automated publication based on the twitter feeds I follow at paper.li


This one pretty much sums up this blog. Source: EC
Markets – Between The Hedges
EZ crisis press summary – openeurope
  -Germany resists calls to boost eurozone bailout funds; Only six coalition German MPs have said they will definitely vote against second Greek bailout

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
2012 – The Year We All Learn To Live DangerouslyA Fistful of Euros
The Euro Area’s two largest economies look set to escape “the worst of the worst”, but remain dependent on factors outside their control, in the US, in China, and in the Emerging Market world as a whole, all of whom could in their turn be badly affected by the impact on risk sentiment of any unfortunate “accident” in the Eurozone itself.

Michel Barnier’s Bank-Regulation TeamThe Source / WSJ
The EU internal markets commissioner, has today appointed the members of his “high-level expert group” to look into possible reforms in the European banking sector.

Euro AgonistesKrugman / NYT
…you wait for things either to get gradually better via “internal devaluation” or to get worse and provide the economic and political environment in which euro exit becomes a real possibility. It’s a hell of a way to make economic policy…

EURO CRISIS: GREECE
Commerzbank’s Kraemer Says Europe May Abandon GreeceBB (mp3)

Money vs Democracyopeneurope
What the European press said of the second Greek bailout

EURO CRISIS: ECB
Will LTRO Spoil The Risk Rally?MarketBeat / WSJ
Mark Nash, a London-based bond fund manager for Invesco, says that while the LTRO was important in reducing fears of systemic risk, he also thinks any additional positive impact from the next LTRO will quickly fade.

Watch how the ECB acts, not it saysHumble Student of The Markets
Rumors that LTRO will be smaller, that it will be the last. Article thinks not true.

Entwining bailouts and eurozone central banksalphaville / FT
ECB and the Greek default, the second LTRO. EZ central banks, governments and banks are becoming very, very tangled.

EMERGING
EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank (pdf)

EM Bond Snapshopt Feb 2012Danske Bank (pdf)

OTHER
Macro Tides: In the Garden of EuropeThe Big Picture
Nice newsletter – begins with good macro analysis, (Europe, China, US) and highlights some interesting analysis on stock markets: dividend stocks were underperformers until 2000, became fashionable and are now...expensive?

The Specious Economics of WarsHistorySquared
Wars do boost the economy, but the increased government spending, debt and inflation will follow sooner or later.

AQR’s Aaron Brown on Red-Blooded RiskInstitutional Investor
 “Our financial system has become so complex that it has no meaning anymore. It’s a system that doesn’t work.”

OFF-TOPIC
A Banker Whose Photos Tell the Stories of Bronx ProstitutesNYT
Citigroup’s FX trader has a strange hobby.

The Book of JobsThe Great Debate / Reuters

Apple must make Macintosh a standardLetter of Note