Superbowl, never-ending Greek negotiations, pointless presidential elections in Finland, Russian gas, China & Russia lining up against the Western world, risk-on when everything is wrong. Like Yogi Berra would say, it’s déjà vu all over again. Today mostly Greece and a large set of generics:
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Press Digest select articles from The Economist, The Telegraph, Der Spiegel
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Best of The Week the best links from my ending week's posts
Back to School roundup of research papers for the thus inclined.
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News – BTH
News – The Trader
Daily – Danske Bank (pdf)
-sentiment good after US employment, Greece a question mark
Market Preview – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
In Greek restructuring some institutions are more equal than others – Sober Look
The pressure on the ECB to participate in the restructuring is now coming from both sides of the negotiations as well as from the IMF.
Now Even Greek Politicians Are Taking Cover – Testosterone Pit
"The case of Greece is hopeless," Otmar Issing said. He should know. He was a member of the Executive Board of the Bundesbank and of the Governing Council of the ECB. But it’s legally impossible to kick Greece out of the Eurozone. So he suggested a procedure—a procedure that has been happening already.
Greek talks end without agreement, will meet again on Monday – Athens News
A five-hour meeting between prime minister Lucas Papademos and the leaders of the three parties supporting the government ended without agreement on Sunday.
Another Experiment? – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Truth be told, I honestly believe that Greece is beyond saving without a significant transfer, not loan, that buys real time for the Greek economy to adjust. That is the only way to compensate for the lack of currency adjustment and is the conclusion I wish the Troika would ultimately reach.
EMERGING
The build-up in official reserves in emerging markets since the 1980s – voxeu.org
Over the past three decades, emerging market economies have been rapidly accumulating reserves – a trend that has resumed, and even accelerated, following the 2008 global financial crisis. This column examines factors driving this accumulation and how these factors have evolved over time and differed across countries.
Steen's Chronicle: Lands of opportunity – Saxo
The heavy dependence on foreign demand needs to be replaced by a more balanced economy and one where competition is increased among the stale, complacent domestic sectors. More intense competition would reduce the biggest tax in all three regions: Corruption.
China has room for a fiscal response, this time stimulus should be done through budget and not via banks. Rebalancing towards private consumption instead of relying on investment is important.
Has the Chinese economy begun rebalancing, really? – Also Sprach Analyst
Russia vetoed a resolution at the UN Security Council to end the violence in Syria because it feels burned by last years’s international intervention in Libya, and it harbors suspicions about the motives of the United States.
OTHER
Against Risk Parity – The Aleph Blog
Lever every asset class up until it has the same volatility as common stocks. Under theoretical conditions, one could make extra money doing this, and with less risk than just a common stock portfolio. That makes sense when few are doing it, but not when many are doing it.
On The Failure Of Inflation Targeting, The Hubris Of Central Planning, The "Lost Pilot" Effect, And Economist Idiocy – ZH
SocGen: Our policy makers have absolutely no idea what they're doing, but they're giving it a go!
Who Took My Easy Button? – John Mauldin / The Big Picture
Who Took My Easy Button? · Putting a Good Employment Number in Perspective · When a College Education Isn’t Enough · We’re All Turning Greek · Who Can Afford Health Care?
Things That Make You Go Hmmm report – Grant Williams / ZH
Seven things I learned about transition from communism – voxeu.org
Twenty years ago, communist countries began their shift towards capitalism. What do we know now that we didn’t know then? Harvard's Andrei Shleifer, the Russian-born, American-trained economist, provides his answers and their relevance for contemporary policymakers.
Get Your Shit Together – The Reformed Broker
when you're living in a state of lowered expectations for so long, it becomes easy to imagine that this is the way it has to be. That this is it and the best you can do is not get killed. But...But what happens if the treadmill speeds up beneath our feet?
Is The Insider-Trading Crackdown Behind Lousy Hedge Fund Returns? – Forbes
The evidence is purely circumstantial and there are many other good theories bouncing around explaining what happened to hedge funds in 2011.
DIVERSION
A Curated Linkfest For The Smartest People On The Web! – Simoleon Sense
What are the best books on the psychology behind human decision making and irrationality? – Farnam Street