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Friday, December 11

11th Dec - Another risk-off

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Italy Needs a Cure for Its Bad-Debt HeadacheView / BB

The Changing Face of the German Economic Miracle?BB

EU aims to boost border agencyPolitico

Peter Praet: The transmission of recent non-standard measures ECB

Insight into the ECBMarc Chandler

Le Pen Wins on Economy, Not XenophobiaView / BB
Paul Krugman: Empowering the UglinessNYT
Slow train wreckKevin O’Rourke

No One Knows How Messy the Fed Increase Could GetBB
The Fed AwakensReuters

Retail Sales in U.S. Increase by the Most in Four Months – BB
Retail Sales increased 0.2% in NovemberBill McBride
U.S. consumer spending rises strongly; producer prices up – Reuters
December Consumer Sentiment increases to 91.8 – Bill McBride

Competitiveness: some basic macroeconomics of monetary unionsSimon Wren-Lewis

The Limits of Risky Asset DiversificationDavid Merkel

Oil Falls to Lowest Since 2008 as OPEC Seen Fueling Supply GlutBB

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
A Bad Week for Stocks

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Investors Turn Bearish Amid Oil Rout, Weak Dollar

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Cautious risk appetite, beaten SEK, eyes on US retail sales * US retail sales and a close rate decision in Russia * German yields with another fall * SEK and NOK moving in opposite directions

Morning MarketsTF
China's yuan hit a four-and-a-half-year low overnight propelling Asian stocks to the downside.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Commodity Weakness takes a Toll, Rand Fall Continues, US Retail Sales Awaited

Daily ShotTF
Some investors are beginning to explore a scenario of central banks starting to exit all the non-traditional policy accommodation at some point in the future. For example both the ECB and the RBNZ have lowered rates just to see their currencies appreciate as investors see no additional easing on the horizon. In other markets oil continues to fall and JPMorgan takes a closer look at gold.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
New poll: Outcome of renegotiation likely to swing EU referendum one way or the other * EU Commission launches migration cases against Italy, Croatia, Greece and Hungary * EU eyes plans to beef up its border agency * Stephen Booth: Some may think Cameron’s EU reform demands are not enough, but it’s wrong to call them trivial * Merkel faces crucial test of confidence at CDU party conference this weekend * French PM suggests Front National “can lead to civil war” * UK stands firm on denying prisoners the right to vote * Greece seeking reduction in level of privatisation in negotiations with creditors

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Awkward Renzi — Orbán backdown — COP21

US Equity Futures Suddenly Fall Off A Cliff As Europe Slides, Oil Tumbles, EM Currencies Turmoil


FX UpdateTF
USD traders are nervous ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting as the greenback needs to firm a bit to head into next week on a neutral footing. Today’s US November retail sales therefore is an important setup for next week’s action.

From the FloorTF
Once again “oil has dominated the headlines” and as Lakshmi Thurai from Saxo Bank's Singapore trading desk reports prices for Brent as well as WTI fell further during the Asian session prompting Ole Hansen head of commodity strategy to wonder how deep the slide will be. Meanwhile FX is in a funk ahead of FOMC next Wednesday.

Saksa vastaa haasteeseen * Venäjän keskuspankki pitää tänään korot ennallaan * EKP:n neuvostossa pidetään viime viikon elvytystä riittävänä * Turkin talous kasvaa yllättävän nopeasti

Pekka Ervasti: Yleinen salaliittoteoriaYLE
Politiikan kiehuva hornankattila on nyt niin sekaisin, että kansalainen ei selviä ilman kaiken kattavaa salaliittoteoriaa.

Yrjö Rautio: Aina liian helpolla päässeestä Stubbista tuli ylimielinen – kunnes hänkin putosi jumalten keinusta HS

Ruotsin työttömistä 60 prosenttia on maahanmuuttajia vuonna 2017Verkkouutiset
Tuoreen ennusteen mukaan Ruotsissa syntyneiden työttömyys on laskussa ja muualta tulleiden nousussa.

Yksikään talousasiantuntija ei usko pakkolakien työllisyyslupauksiinMatti Viren

Taloustieteen professorit lyttäävät hallituksen pakkolait – IL
Taloustieteen professorit Sixten Korkman ja Matti Pohjola lyttäävät hallituksen pakkolait Aalto-yliopiston lausunnossa.

VATT: Tutkimustulokset eivät tue hallituksen pakkolakejaIL
Valtion taloudellinen tutkimuskeskus (VATT) arvioi omassa lausunnossaan hallituksen pakkolakipaketin taloudellisia vaikutuksia.

Sisäinen devalvaatio – Case IrlantiRoger Wessman