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Monday, December 14

14th Dec - Sell-off continues

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Paul Krugman: Adjustment in the Euro AreaNYT
Euro isn’t totally unworkable. It’s just extremely costly

W. Münchau: Watch the presses roll as Europe scrambles to fix its banksFT
This is how the crisis may be resolved — not with a bailout or debt resolution but by printing money

ECB Decisions: Deposit Facility rate, APP, Unequal Supply Growth & OilPlace du Luxembourg

Merkel says euro zone crisis not yet overcome Reuters

European politics: Rising political uncertainties in 2016DB Research
A continuation of Europe’s mismanagement of the refugee crisis risks to unravel decades of European integration. Agreeing on a joint response and moves towards a genuine European migration system are a major political challenge for 2016.

Spanish poll sees Socialists trailing fourth, Rajoy ahead – Politico
Outlook for Spain's Election – Marc Chandler
Merkel ally says her austerity push boosted Le Pen – Politico
Le Pen fails to win any regions in French local election – Politico
5 takeaways from the elections in France – Politico
Le Pen in France, climate and the defeat of nationalism – FT
Why Le Pen Just Lost Her Best Chance to Win French Election – BB

Merrill on FOMC: "The not-so-dovish hike" – Bill McBride
Nomura on FOMC: "Life after lift-off" – Bill McBride
Goldman: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
After ECB's Hawkish Cut, Is the Fed about to Deliver a Dovish Hike? – Marc Chandler
Makes You Wonder What The Fed Is Thinking – Tim Duy
FOMC Preview and Review of Projections – Bill McBride
Fed Lift-off Series #3: FOMC preview: we expect a dovish hike – Danske Bank
Four Charts to Make a Rate-Raising Fed Nervous – View/BB
US Watch – Five questions on the Fed rate hike - ABN AMRO

FX: Fed dot comNordea
Last week, last chance for Fed to make it a 2015 hike. Will they? What do Markets think? Risk sentiment, above all... what is best for the USD on the day, should be worst longer out.

It really has been a bad year for high yield FT
The secret to why money is so good at changing people’s minds – WaPo
How Star Wars Conquered the Galaxy – Reason
Academic B.S. as artificial barriers to entry – Noah Smith
Who said it: ‘Star Wars’ or the European Union? – Politico
Sweden faces moral dilemma over migration – Politico

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Markets Fall Ahead of Fed Meeting This Week

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Rebound, But The Fed Awaits

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fed Set to Raise Into Turbulent Markets

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Oil slide continues, CNY further de-pegged, Fed ready for take-off * Week ahead: time for long-awaited Fed lift-off  * German bonds in demand again * EUR with some performance

Morning MarketsTF
As financial markets brace for the first US rate hike in almost a decade investors have been spooked into running for cover in gold the Japanese yen and core government bonds. Equities the greenback and crude oil have all tumbled during a frantic Asian session overnight.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Slow Start of Important Week, though Rand Jumps Back

Daily ShotTF
Set against a backdrop of an ever-falling oil price the anticipated US Federal Reserve rate rise and heightened risk aversion it is not that easy to find good news. However one of the EU's worst performers namely Italy managed to surprise positively.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Downing Street denies dropping four-year migrant benefits demand as Boris Johnson suggests Danish-style opt-out * Front National fails to win any French region but obtains record number of votes * New poll: Majority of FTSE 350 board members concerned by Brexit but few willing to speak out * Merkel wants to “noticeably reduce” asylum seekers and refugees but stays clear of ‘upper limit’ * New Spanish poll shows rebound for Podemos, sharp fall for Ciudadanos * New EU data protection law could push tech companies out of the EU * Paris climate change summit wraps up partly binding deal * Juncker to unveil plans for beefed-up EU border agency * Wilders' populist party takes massive lead in Dutch poll

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
National Front wipeout — Climate deal — CDU summit

US Open ZH
Futures Resume Slide After Oil Tumbles Below $35, Natgas At 13 Year Low; EM, Junk Bond Turmoil Accelerates


FX UpdateTF
China’s move late Friday to bring focus to broader RMB exchange rate looks like the latest attempt by China to affect the Yellen Fed’s deliberations as it moves towards a rate hike on Wednesday.

From the FloorTF
China likes to test itself on the international stage and may be seeking to propel the Fed down a path to its own liking. Could it see the Fed pull its horns in?

Fed korostaa maltillista koronnostotahtia * Öljyn hinta jatkaa painumistaan * Riksbank pitää rahapolitiikkansa ennallaan huomenna * Meksikon keskuspankki joutuu reagoimaan Fedin toimiin heti torstaina

Jan Hurri: Pian tämä ankeus on vanhaa hyvää aikaaTalSa
Siitä on nyt kuutisen vuotta, kun Suomen talous sukelsi viennin ja investointien romahtamiseen. Sen jälkeen talous on polkenut edes joten kuten paikoillaan kotimaisen kulutuksen varassa. Seuraavaksi sekin sakkaa – ja pian tämä ankeus on vanhaa hyvää aikaa.

Entä jos ulkomaillakaan ei mene hyvin II?Peter Nyberg

Kielletään kipulääkkeet – eurojäsenyys ja selviytymiskeinotTyhmyri

Komission ideologia uhkaa tuhota EuroopanPaavo Väyrynen

Sisäinen devalvaatio – Case KreikkaRoger Wessman

Politiikkaradio: Ilmastosopimus & EuroalueYLE
Studiossa ovat Greenpeacen maajohtaja Sini Harkki ja Energiateolllisuuden tj. Juha Naukkarinen. Fed nostanee ohjauskorkoa keskiviikona. EKP puolestaan laajensi rahapoliittisia tukitoimiaan euroalueella. Onko EKP:n toimista käynnistämään kasvua euroalueella? Näihin vastaavat Aktia-pankin pääekonomisti Heidi Schauman ja entinen Suomen Pankin rahoitusmarkkinaosasaton päällikkö, rahoituskonsultti Heikki Koskenkylä. Sakari Sirkkanen on toimittajana.