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Monday, December 7

7th Dec - Post-OPEC, waiting Fed

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Wolfgang Münchau: Europe will stumble before it learns to stand tallFT
I foresee a gradual erosion of the EU that leaves it as a glorified free-trade zone

Hollande’s election nightmarePolitico

Schengen survives, for nowPolitico

Front National’s result a sign that EU reform cannot waitOpen Europe

Fiscal multipliers during consolidation: Evidence from EUvox

Eurozone craves monetary and fiscal symbiosisTF

ECB and the Limits of QE – CFR
Draghi Says There Can't Be a Limit to ECB Action Within Mandate – BB
ECB lowered stimulus ambitions after hitting opposition – Reuters
Alberto Gallo: ECB’s quantitative easing won’t work – FT
Draghi goes back on the offensive on inflation target – TF

What the Jobs Report Means for Yellen's Plan to Raise Rates GraduallyBB

And That's A WrapTim Duy
Rate hike coming. This round of ZIRP is nearly wrapped up. But that end is really just a new beginning. Arguably, the end of ZIRP raises more questions than it answers. The pace of subsequent tightening, the normalization - or not - of the balance sheet, and the countdown to the next easing are all issues now on the table.

US Monetary Policy Normalisation ToolsDanske Bank
Raising rates with a bloated balance sheet

Fed liftoff seriesDanske Bank
No. 1: Evidence from previous hiking cycles

102 pages of Robeco’s best articles of 2015

We are shrinking! The neglected drop in Gross Planet Productvox
The analysis and forecasts of the IMF are well covered in the press. This column deals with a less noted development in the data provided by the IMF, namely the nominal decrease in Gross Planet Product. Since the IMF forecast both positive growth and positive inflation, the nominal shrinkage of GPP puts into question the consistency of the IMF World Economic Outlook data and forecasts.

JPM Guide to the MarketsJPM
Version updated 30-Nov-2015

FX: USD-dependentNordea
Draghi seems somewhat complacent with the EUR again. Yellen mentioned the USD several times with the link to rate path - can't have it all.  China data will rule the risk sentiment this week - hence, the direction of EM/commodity FX.

Defining austeritySimon Wren-Lewis

Are Capital Flows Expansionary or Contractionary? It Depends iMFdirect

Why Finland Would Be Better Off Without the EuroHuffington

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Big Rally Caps Volatile Week for U.S. Stocks

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Relief for Hard Hit European Stocks

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
What to Expect From Earnings in 2016

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

US data support Dec Fed hike; OPEC leaves market awash with cheap oil; gloomy China data this week * US labour market report supports December Fed hike * Positive payrolls unable to push yields higher * USD with some performance

Morning MarketsTF
Friday's robust US employment report has given Asian stocks a lift with most equity indices across the territory starting the week on a positive note and European bourses are expected to open stronger too. Elsewhere, after an acrimonious finale to the Opec meeting on Friday, crude oil is looking more beleaguered than ever.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Continues to Recover

Daily ShotTF
The data out of the US have all but locked in a Federal Reserve rate hike in December but central bankers are likely to go gently into the unknown as labour markets have still not entirely healed from the financial crisis.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Front National obtains historic vote in first round of French regional elections * EU ministers agree plans to suspend Schengen for up to two years * Cameron allies warn he will campaign for Brexit if he is “completely ignored” by EU partners * Switzerland threatens unilateral quota on EU migrants by March next year * Reuters: Draghi raised market expectations on purpose to pressure ECB hawks * Finland draws up plans to scrap benefits in favour of minimum citizens’ income * ECB voices concern about UK’s push for a multi-currency EU * New Polish poll: Economically liberal party surges into second place

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
National Front scores big — Aiming high on aviation

European, Asian Stocks Jump As Iron Ore Joins Oil Below $40 For First Time Since May 2009


FX UpdateTF
The EURUSD reversal may have a hard time following through higher this week if risk appetite keeps an even keel. Elsewhere, USDCAD is the long USD pair that may be set for new highs for the cycle this week. And this Thursday features three central bank meetings, of which two are potentially pivotal.

From the FloorTF
Last Friday's Opec meeting may not have seen the blockbuster reaction that greeted Thursday's European Central Bank meeting, but the fruits of a divided cartel will certainly be felt into 2016 as Iranian crude production ramps up.

Kiinasta löytyy vielä elvytysvaraa * Työmarkkinat kiristyivät USA:ssa edelleen * OPEC antaa öljyn virrata entiseen malliin * Venäjän keskuspankki on kiperän päätöksen edessä perjantaina

Politiikan mätä moraali Jukka Hankamäki

Jan Hurri: Kilpailukykyloikka, joka melkein tuhosi euron TalSa
Hallitus painostaa työmarkkinoita sisäiseen devalvaatioon, jotta työn tuottavuus ja Suomen kilpailukyky kohenisi. Esikuvana on maa, jonka kilpailukykyloikka melkein tuhosi euron.

Menetetty vuosikymmenSakari Heikkinen

Tutkija: ”Kaikki faktat sen osoittavat – Suomen ei olisi koskaan pitänyt liittyä euroon”US