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EUROPE
I foresee a gradual
erosion of the EU that leaves it as a glorified free-trade zone
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB and the Limits of QE
– CFR
Draghi Says There Can't
Be a Limit to ECB Action Within Mandate – BB
ECB lowered stimulus
ambitions after hitting opposition – Reuters
Alberto Gallo: ECB’s
quantitative easing won’t work – FT
Draghi goes back on the
offensive on inflation target – TF
UNITED STATES
Rate hike coming. This
round of ZIRP is nearly wrapped up. But that end is really just a new
beginning. Arguably, the end of ZIRP raises more questions than it answers. The
pace of subsequent tightening, the normalization - or not - of the balance
sheet, and the countdown to the next easing are all issues now on the table.
Raising rates with a
bloated balance sheet
No. 1: Evidence from
previous hiking cycles
OTHER
102 pages of Robeco’s
best articles of 2015
The analysis and
forecasts of the IMF are well covered in the press. This column deals with a
less noted development in the data provided by the IMF, namely the nominal
decrease in Gross Planet Product. Since the IMF forecast both positive growth
and positive inflation, the nominal shrinkage of GPP puts into question the
consistency of the IMF World Economic Outlook data and forecasts.
Version updated
30-Nov-2015
Draghi seems somewhat
complacent with the EUR again. Yellen mentioned the USD several times with the
link to rate path - can't have it all.
China data will rule the risk sentiment this week - hence, the direction
of EM/commodity FX.
Why Finland Would Be Better Off Without the Euro – Huffington
REGULARS
Big Rally Caps Volatile Week for
U.S. Stocks
Relief for Hard Hit European Stocks
What to Expect From Earnings in 2016
US data support Dec Fed hike; OPEC
leaves market awash with cheap oil; gloomy China data this week * US labour
market report supports December Fed hike * Positive payrolls unable to push
yields higher * USD with some performance
Friday's robust US
employment report has given Asian stocks a lift with most equity indices across
the territory starting the week on a positive note and European bourses are
expected to open stronger too. Elsewhere, after an acrimonious finale to the Opec
meeting on Friday, crude oil is looking more beleaguered than ever.
Dollar Continues to Recover
The data out of the US have all but
locked in a Federal Reserve rate hike in December but central bankers are
likely to go gently into the unknown as labour markets have still not entirely
healed from the financial crisis.
Front National obtains
historic vote in first round of French regional elections * EU ministers agree
plans to suspend Schengen for up to two years * Cameron allies warn he will
campaign for Brexit if he is “completely ignored” by EU partners * Switzerland
threatens unilateral quota on EU migrants by March next year * Reuters: Draghi
raised market expectations on purpose to pressure ECB hawks * Finland draws up
plans to scrap benefits in favour of minimum citizens’ income * ECB voices
concern about UK’s push for a multi-currency EU * New Polish poll: Economically
liberal party surges into second place
National Front scores
big — Aiming high on aviation
European, Asian Stocks
Jump As Iron Ore Joins Oil Below $40 For First Time Since May 2009
The EURUSD reversal may have a hard
time following through higher this week if risk appetite keeps an even keel.
Elsewhere, USDCAD is the long USD pair that may be set for new highs for the
cycle this week. And this Thursday features three central bank meetings, of
which two are potentially pivotal.
Last Friday's Opec
meeting may not have seen the blockbuster reaction that greeted Thursday's
European Central Bank meeting, but the fruits of a divided cartel will
certainly be felt into 2016 as Iranian crude production ramps up.
FINNISH
Kiinasta
löytyy vielä elvytysvaraa * Työmarkkinat kiristyivät USA:ssa edelleen * OPEC
antaa öljyn virrata entiseen malliin * Venäjän keskuspankki on kiperän
päätöksen edessä perjantaina
Hallitus painostaa työmarkkinoita sisäiseen devalvaatioon,
jotta työn tuottavuus ja Suomen kilpailukyky kohenisi. Esikuvana on maa, jonka
kilpailukykyloikka melkein tuhosi euron.
Menetetty vuosikymmen – Sakari
Heikkinen
Tutkija:
”Kaikki faktat sen osoittavat – Suomen ei olisi koskaan pitänyt liittyä euroon” –
US