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Tuesday, December 1

1st Dec - ECB in thoughts

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe bribes Turkey Politico
Throwing money at Ankara won’t resolve this refugee crisis.

Peter Bofinger: German Wage Moderation And The Eurozone Crisis Social Europe  

Significant easing expected from ECB – it may struggle to surprise – Open Europe
The ECB is different (and should be treated as such) – FT
ECB Preview – Mario will not disappoint – ABN AMRO
Monetary policy expectations and aggregate EZ shocks – vox
How the ‘euroglut’ thesis became a reality – FT
Swiss example may give ECB pause on negative rates – IFT

The Final CountdownTim Duy
We are on the final countdown to the first rate hike of this cycle. Beyond that, the Fed will proceed very cautiously.

The centrality of policy to how long recessions lastSimon Wren-Lewis

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Slide Into November’s End

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Pin Hopes on ECB; Shrug off China Data Miss

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Strongest Month of the Year Starts With Major Events

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

US ISM index to remain weak * Rates should rise for the rest of the week on better global data and ECB * EUR/USD at risk of reversal as policy divergence theme fades * CNY in the SDR basket

Morning MarketsTF
The speed of the Eurozone's recovery is in focus as we head towards December's ECB meeting and today's Spanish PMI print will show investors how things are proceeding in one of the Continent's economic standouts.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Trades Heavier, Key Events Awaited

Daily ShotTF
Economic indicators from China keep painting a dismal picture and commodities markets reflect persistently weak demand from Chinese industry and construction. The offshore yuan is trading at a discount again in spite of People's Bank of China's intervention. That means the market is telling China to devalue.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
British and German military involvement in the fight against IS imminent pending parliamentary approval * Former UK Chancellor: Britain could survive economically outside the EU * Labour Party launches its campaign to stay in the EU * Poland backs proposals to establish the EU as a multi-currency union * Turkey arrests over 1,000 migrants and smugglers as Sweden is set to have refugees relocated * EU anti-terror chief: European intelligence agency “won’t happen” * Head of Eurozone bailout fund expects Greek debt relief talks to be delayed into next year * European Commission issues proposal aimed at making it easier for businesses to raise cash

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Climate kick-off — Danish options — National Front lines

US Open ZH
Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar was broadly weaker after a dismal Chicago PMI yesterday and as cable refused to take out the 1.5000 level on the first try while AUDUSD bulls were encouraged by another optimistic RBA statement Three days of dense event risks lie ahead and will be pivotal for the outlook for the euro and perhaps also for the USD.

From the FloorTF
As traders brace for this week's European Central Bank decision US employment report and crunch Opec summit the US dollar is falling victim to a wave of repositioning that has boosted major and peripheral currencies crude oil and gold.

Kiina sai pokaalin takanreunukselle * Ruotsin talous kasvoi vakuuttavasti * Kiinan elvytys puree teollisuuden luottamukseen vain vaivoin * USA:n teollisuuden luottamus pysyy aneemisena