Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
This post will be updated as new
material is published.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s
Follow ‘MoreLiver’
on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Weekly Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Tyler’s Weekly
Market Wrap
– ZH
Stocks
Slammed To Worst Week Since Black Monday Amid Crude & Credit Carnage
Succinct summation
of week’s events
– The
Big Picture
5 charts from the
week in markets
– WSJ
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill
McBride
Economic Calendar – Berenberg
Economic Calendar – Handelsbanken
UK
Weekly
– Handelsbanken
Week Ahead – BB
Fed
Rate Decision, U.S. CPI, WTO, Heisman
Week
Ahead – ZH
5 Things to Watch
on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
Wall St Week Ahead – Reuters
Volatility
the surest bet in stocks after Fed meets
Weighing the Week
Ahead –
A
Dash of Insight
Last
week’s stock results were poor for nearly all funds and sectors. Will this
continue? Until Wednesday, we can expect a continuing focus on the Fed. After
that announcement we may see a change in tone: Pundits will be asking: Is it
finally time for the Santa Claus Rally?
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
European
Summit, Migration, Foreign Ministers
Weekly Market
Outlook
– Moody’s
Week Ahead – Nordea
Next
week’s highlight is obviously the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We expect a 25bp
rate hike and a dovish message. PMI data out of the Euro area will shed light
on the manufacturing sector, while HICP inflation should be confirmed at 0.1%
y/y. The BoJ, the Riksbank and Norges Bank will also announce their rate
decisions. Next week also brings CPI prints from the US and the UK.
Strategy: Slipping
in oil again?
– Danske
Bank
Lower
oil prices increases tail risk from emerging markets and US high yield…but
gives support to consumers * Stocks take a hit but set to get support from
bottom in manufacturing cycle * The Fed to hike but revise dots lower – the ECB
is done easing * CNY under attack
Weekly Focus: First
Fed rate hike since 2006 – Danske
Bank
Macro Weekly: First
hike after almost 10 years – ABN
AMRO
The
almost certain rate hike by the US Fed will be the first one in almost 10
years. Some anxiety is to be expected * Expect Yellen to stress that the
tightening process will be slow * French and Italian industrial production
growth is accelerating * There are tentative signs that Chinese imports are
stabilising. This is good news for world trade growth in 2016.
EM FX Weekly: PBoC
seeking a weaker yuan? – ABN
AMRO
EM
FX lower ahead of FOMC and further declines in commodity prices * PBoC allowing
market forces a greater role ahead of FOMC meeting * No change in PBoC FX
policy
G10 FX Weekly –
FOMC and oil prices in focus – ABN
AMRO
The
US dollar has not profited from stronger data…because of cautious approach
towards the Fed and position closing * The break lower in oil prices drags down
currencies of oil exporting countries * Stronger domestic data neutralize rate
cut and weak commodity prices for AUD and NZD
FX Outlook – Marc
Chandler
Technical
Condition of the Greenback on the Eve of Lift-Off
FX Positioning – Marc
Chandler
Limited
Speculative Position Adjustment Warns USD Correction may not be Over
FX 4 Next Week:
Put on your hiking boots – TF
Forex
markets are coiled ahead of a series of major risk events most notable the
Federal Reserve's long-awaited December 16 meeting (and the rate hike it is expected
to launch).
Weekly Market
Summary
– The
Fat Pitch
The
selling on Friday was extreme; there is typically some follow through downward
momentum in the day(s) ahead. SPY and NDX are near support and breadth is
either washed out or close to being so. Volatility experienced an extreme
spike; mean reversion usually follows. Seasonality, especially with December
OpEx up next, is very bullish. All things being equal, risk/reward should be
skewed higher. The wild card is oil: equity markets are being driven lower by
falling oil prices and their impact on high-yield. That could pressure markets
further. Adding to the drama is the Fed is expected to initiate the first rate
hike since 2006 this week.