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Saturday, December 12

12th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.  This post will be updated as new material is published.

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Stocks Slammed To Worst Week Since Black Monday Amid Crude & Credit Carnage

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

5 charts from the week in marketsWSJ

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic CalendarBerenberg

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK WeeklyHandelsbanken

Week AheadBB
Fed Rate Decision, U.S. CPI, WTO, Heisman

Week Ahead – ZH

5 Things to Watch on the Economic CalendarWSJ

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Volatility the surest bet in stocks after Fed meets

Weighing the Week Ahead – A Dash of Insight
Last week’s stock results were poor for nearly all funds and sectors. Will this continue? Until Wednesday, we can expect a continuing focus on the Fed. After that announcement we may see a change in tone: Pundits will be asking: Is it finally time for the Santa Claus Rally?  

EU Week AheadWSJ
European Summit, Migration, Foreign Ministers

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Week AheadNordea
Next week’s highlight is obviously the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We expect a 25bp rate hike and a dovish message. PMI data out of the Euro area will shed light on the manufacturing sector, while HICP inflation should be confirmed at 0.1% y/y. The BoJ, the Riksbank and Norges Bank will also announce their rate decisions. Next week also brings CPI prints from the US and the UK.

Strategy: Slipping in oil again?Danske Bank
Lower oil prices increases tail risk from emerging markets and US high yield…but gives support to consumers * Stocks take a hit but set to get support from bottom in manufacturing cycle * The Fed to hike but revise dots lower – the ECB is done easing * CNY under attack

Weekly Focus: First Fed rate hike since 2006 Danske Bank

Macro Weekly: First hike after almost 10 yearsABN AMRO
The almost certain rate hike by the US Fed will be the first one in almost 10 years. Some anxiety is to be expected * Expect Yellen to stress that the tightening process will be slow * French and Italian industrial production growth is accelerating * There are tentative signs that Chinese imports are stabilising. This is good news for world trade growth in 2016.

EM FX Weekly: PBoC seeking a weaker yuan? ABN AMRO
EM FX lower ahead of FOMC and further declines in commodity prices * PBoC allowing market forces a greater role ahead of FOMC meeting * No change in PBoC FX policy

G10 FX Weekly – FOMC and oil prices in focusABN AMRO
The US dollar has not profited from stronger data…because of cautious approach towards the Fed and position closing * The break lower in oil prices drags down currencies of oil exporting countries * Stronger domestic data neutralize rate cut and weak commodity prices for AUD and NZD

FX OutlookMarc Chandler
Technical Condition of the Greenback on the Eve of Lift-Off

FX PositioningMarc Chandler
Limited Speculative Position Adjustment Warns USD Correction may not be Over

FX 4 Next Week: Put on your hiking bootsTF
Forex markets are coiled ahead of a series of major risk events most notable the Federal Reserve's long-awaited December 16 meeting (and the rate hike it is expected to launch).

Weekly Market SummaryThe Fat Pitch
The selling on Friday was extreme; there is typically some follow through downward momentum in the day(s) ahead. SPY and NDX are near support and breadth is either washed out or close to being so. Volatility experienced an extreme spike; mean reversion usually follows. Seasonality, especially with December OpEx up next, is very bullish. All things being equal, risk/reward should be skewed higher. The wild card is oil: equity markets are being driven lower by falling oil prices and their impact on high-yield. That could pressure markets further. Adding to the drama is the Fed is expected to initiate the first rate hike since 2006 this week.