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Wednesday, December 2

2nd Dec - Almost ECB-time!

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Was German undercutting deliberate? Simon Wren-Lewis

Is Grexit Back on the Table? Marc Chandler

EZ internal devaluations and negative demand spillovers vox
If pursued by several countries, wage moderation can work if monetary policy is not constrained by the zero lower bound, or if supported by quantitative easing. Without sufficient monetary accommodation, it will not deliver much of a boost to output, and may hurt overall EZ output.

Time for caution on the euro – Macro Man
Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area – ECB
Inflation unchanged and core rate down ahead of ECB meeting – Nordea
Lower core inflation supports aggressive ECB easing tomorrow – Danske Bank
Currency wars everywhere, euro and underwhelming excess reserves edition – FT
5 Questions About the ECB’s Thursday Meeting – WSJ
How to Trade the ECB Meeting: ‘Cash Is a Position, Too’ – WSJ
Maybe less is more, Mario: Koefoed – TF
QE and public investment – Paul De Grauwe
An ECB rates scenario guide – FT

Why Business Investment Is Slumping in Five ChartsWSJ

Janet Yellen Looks Like a Central Banker Ready to Raise RatesWSJ

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Open December With a Rally

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Edge Higher; Inflation Ahead

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
The Gift That Should Keep on Giving This Year

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global Daily – ABN AMRO

Euro rates updateNordea

Lower bond yields and EUR/USD at 1.06 as ECB day is approaching * Euro-area inflation to edge up * Sharp drop in the ISM sends yields lower…and also the USD

Morning MarketsTF
A really bad miss in the US ISM manufacturing print will have propelled the US Federal Reserve yet further towards a gradual approach on interest-rate hikes with December still the best bet for liftoff but a possible delay to the second round of hikes. The dollar's stayed relatively buoyant despite that nasty report.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
The Wait is Nearly Over, and the Dollar Catches a Bid

Daily ShotTF
Fresh signs of strength in the European labour market make the European Central Bank's decision about whether to ease more difficult as Eurozone unemployment is near a four-year low.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Government not preparing a Brexit contingency plan, Osborne tells MPs * New poll suggests Danes could reject closer EU justice and home affairs integration * Greece threatened with suspension from Schengen * Germany pressures Commission to reach economic accord with Moscow to assuage Russian concerns about EU-Ukraine trade deal * Hollande’s popularity rebounds after Paris attacks * Greece on tight deadline to approve new list of measures needed to unlock bailout cash * Volkswagen lobbied to ease new EU car emission tests

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Fighting ISIL — POLITICO 28 — COP21

European Stocks Jump As Inflation Disappoints, US Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen Speech


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar managed to survive the worst ISM manufacturing survey reading since 2009 as traders prefer to focus on the services side of the economy and upcoming jobs numbers. Fed chief Janet Yellen is also out speaking today.

From the FloorTF
Investors are refining their positions ahead of this week and month's crucial central bank meetings and event risks but there is a chance that even the most clear-cut narratives have become overbought even before the headlines roll in.

Brasilian syöksy loppuu ensi vuonna * Euroalueella työllisyystilanne kohenee * USA:n teollisuuden luottamus heikkeni selvästi * Inflaatio kiihtymään päin euroalueella

Perussuomalaiset panttivankeina Jukka Hankamäki

Illuusio yhteisvaluutasta ilman yhteisvastuuta Roger Wessman

Suomen on siirryttävä eurosta markkaanProfessorin ajatuksia